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USDA’s September 2026 forecast points to tighter U.S. corn supplies and a higher projected farm price, but it does not show that a near-term price spike is coming. For the 2026/27 marketing year, USDA cut its crop and ending-stock estimates from August and raised its season-average farm-price estimate to $4.80 per bushel. That is a forecast for the marketing year—not today’s cash or futures price, and not a promise of a particular price move.
What USDA’s September forecast says
The latest release listed in USDA’s report archive as of October 4, 2026, is the September 11 World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE). WASDE is a monthly forecast of supply and use for U.S. and world crops. The corn figures below cover the 2026/27 marketing year; they are not calendar-year totals or a live market quote. USDA’s WASDE archive
USDA’s September balance sheet projects 15.800 billion bushels of U.S. corn production and 1.567 billion bushels of ending stocks. It also projects a 2026/27 season-average farm price of $4.80 per bushel. USDA WASDE-675, September 2026
How much tighter is the U.S. outlook?
Compared with its August forecast for the same marketing year, USDA made downward revisions to production, total supply, use, and ending stocks, while raising the projected season-average farm price:
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| 2026/27 U.S. corn estimate | August forecast | September forecast | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Production | 16.013 billion bushels | 15.800 billion bushels | Down 213 million bushels |
| Total supply | 17.983 billion bushels | 17.747 billion bushels | Down 236 million bushels |
| Total use | 16.330 billion bushels | 16.180 billion bushels | Down 150 million bushels |
| Ending stocks | 1.653 billion bushels | 1.567 billion bushels | Down 86 million bushels |
| Season-average farm price | $4.50 per bushel | $4.80 per bushel | Up 30 cents per bushel |
All figures are USDA forecasts for the 2026/27 marketing year in WASDE-675, September 2026. USDA WASDE-675
“Tighter” describes the direction of the revision, not a shortage: the September forecast still shows 1.567 billion bushels of ending stocks. USDA also lowered projected use by 150 million bushels, so the stock estimate reflects changes on both the supply and demand sides of the balance sheet.
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What the global figures add—and what they do not
USDA’s Economic Research Service reported that projected global coarse-grain production for 2026/27 fell 5.1 million metric tons in September. The revision was chiefly U.S.-driven: expected U.S. corn production was cut 5.4 million metric tons and sorghum 0.3 million. Those declines more than offset a net 0.6-million-ton increase in foreign coarse-grain production, including a 3.8-million-ton increase in projected barley production. Foreign corn production was lowered 2.5 million metric tons, with India accounting for the largest monthly reduction, down 2 million tons primarily because of lower expected harvested area. Projected global coarse-grain ending stocks declined 1.6 million metric tons. USDA ERS, Corn and Other Feed Grains: Market Outlook, September 18, 2026
The stocks figure is for coarse grains as a group, which includes corn and other grains; it is not a corn-only global stock estimate. These revisions support the view that USDA’s global supply outlook was lower in September, but they do not establish that global corn stocks are collapsing.
Does the $4.80 forecast mean corn will cost that much now?
No. USDA’s $4.80 per bushel is its projected season-average farm price across the 2026/27 marketing year. It is not a current futures quote, a local cash bid, or a prediction that prices will reach that level on a particular date. The same WASDE table gives a separate 2025/26 season-average farm-price estimate of $4.15 per bushel; that is an estimate for a different marketing year, not a directly comparable spot price. USDA WASDE-675
A lower crop estimate and fewer projected ending stocks, alongside a higher farm-price forecast, are supportive revisions for prices. But they do not determine the timing or size of a short-term move. Actual prices also respond to subsequent changes in supply and use, including new crop information, demand, and later forecast revisions.
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Why the forecast can change
USDA describes its outlook as a consensus process that combines survey data, economic models, statistical analysis, and expert judgment. As new information becomes available, the agency can revise the balance sheet and its price outlook. USDA ERS, Outlook and Projections
For a useful update, compare each new WASDE report with the previous forecast for the same marketing year, keeping production, supply, use, ending stocks, and season-average farm price separate. For market decisions, compare the forecast with the relevant live futures contract or local cash bid rather than treating a marketing-year average as a quote.
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