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The September 2026 USDA forecast does not show less soybean crush and rising ending stocks for 2026/27. It estimates crush at 2.780 billion bushels, unchanged from August, and ending stocks at 310 million bushels, down from 320 million. The headline’s claim cannot be confirmed without knowing which report month and marketing year it refers to.
What the September 2026 USDA forecast shows
The USDA’s September estimates list two marketing years. They should not be mistaken for a month-to-month revision: comparing 2025/26 with 2026/27 compares different years, not successive forecasts for the same year.
| Marketing year | Estimated U.S. soybean crush | Estimated U.S. ending stocks | Stocks-to-use |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | 2.655 billion bushels | 325 million bushels | Not stated in the September table summary (CME/Econoday) |
| 2026/27 | 2.780 billion bushels | 310 million bushels | 6.8% |
These are USDA September 2026 estimates tabulated by CME/Econoday. For 2026/27, its monthly summary says crush was unchanged from August while ending stocks declined from 320 million bushels to 310 million. That is the opposite of a month-over-month increase in carryout.
Why the headline remains unverified
The available evidence does not identify the report month or marketing year behind the headline “USDA Projects Less Soybean Crush, Bumping up Ending Stocks.” The September figures do not support that description for 2026/27. Until the underlying report is identified, the headline’s direction should not be treated as a verified USDA revision.
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WASDE is USDA’s monthly World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report. It provides annual supply-and-use forecasts for U.S. and world agricultural commodities, including oilseeds. USDA’s World Agricultural Outlook Board says interagency committees compile and interpret information from USDA and other domestic and foreign sources. See the USDA WASDE page.
At the time of the September figures, USDA’s page listed the September 2026 report and scheduled the October report for October 9, 2026. The October release was therefore not yet available to resolve which report the headline might have meant.
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What “soybean crush” and “ending stocks” mean
Soybean crush
Crush is the processing of soybeans into products such as soybean meal and soybean oil. In the USDA balance sheet, it is one category of use, alongside exports, seed, and residual use. A change in projected crush can affect the balance, but it does not alone determine ending stocks.
Ending stocks
Ending stocks, also called carryout, are the forecast inventory remaining at the end of a marketing year. The balance sheet relates supply—beginning stocks, production, and imports—to uses such as crush and exports. Changes elsewhere in the balance can offset or amplify a revision to crush.
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Stocks-to-use
The stocks-to-use ratio compares projected ending inventory with forecast use. It provides context for judging whether stocks may be ample or tight as supply and consumption change; an absolute stock figure alone does not show that relationship. USDA describes these measures in its WASDE projections at a glance. ERS notes that visualization totals can differ slightly from WASDE tables because of rounding, so use the report table for exact figures when available.
How to check whether USDA raised ending stocks
- Identify the report month and marketing year. A forecast for 2026/27 should be compared with the prior forecast for 2026/27, not with 2025/26.
- Compare the same balance-sheet row across reports. Check crush, exports, production, imports, and other use categories as well as ending stocks.
- Read the stocks-to-use ratio with the stock estimate. The ratio places carryout in relation to expected use; it is not interchangeable with the bushel figure.
- Use the latest released WASDE, not a scheduled release. Forecasts can change as new information arrives. The September numbers are estimates, not final observed inventories.
What the September numbers may mean for markets
CME/Econoday characterized the September report as neutral to slightly bearish because new-crop ending stocks were above trade expectations. That is the publisher’s market interpretation, not a USDA conclusion or a guaranteed prediction of soybean prices. The same summary noted that attention could shift to factors including South American weather and China demand.
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