USDA’s September 3, 2024, Crop Progress report rated 65% of soybeans in its 18-state reporting aggregate good or excellent for the week ending September 1, down two percentage points from 67% the prior week. The reported change is in condition ratings—not a direct measurement of yield or production.
What changed in the September 1 report?
The USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) report showed that the combined share rated good or excellent fell from 67% for the week ending August 25 to 65% for the week ending September 1. Successful Farming’s summary also reported 25% fair and 10% poor or very poor on September 1, compared with 24% fair and 9% poor or very poor a week earlier. The category shares cover the same five rating groups and total 100% in each week.
The figures are estimates for the USDA’s 18-state soybean reporting aggregate. Those states accounted for 96% of 2023 soybean acreage, according to the USDA NASS report. They should not be read as a survey of every field or as county-level measurements.
What does “good or excellent” mean?
NASS asks reporters to estimate the share of a crop in each of five categories: very poor, poor, fair, good, and excellent. As the agency explains in its Crop Progress and Conditions survey guide, “Crop condition questions ask reporters to estimate the percent of a particular crop that is in each of five condition categories ranging from very poor to excellent.” The good/excellent number combines the last two categories; it is not a separate yield forecast.
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Condition estimates are assembled from reporter observations. NASS describes Crop Progress as a weekly survey of farmer activities, crop development, and crop condition during the growing season. State reporters are largely extension agents and Farm Service Agency staff, and returned reports account for over 75% of acreage for major commodities. These estimates summarize reported conditions rather than individual inspections of every soybean field.
Why did the rating fall?
The report establishes that the category shares changed, but the reported figures do not identify a specific cause for the two-point decline. A movement in the shares can reflect changing observations across the reporting states; it does not, by itself, show how much yield or production will change.
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How does condition differ from crop development?
The same weekly update included development measures that answer different questions from condition ratings. By September 1, 94% of soybeans had reached the pod-setting stage, up from 89% the prior week and above the five-year average of 93%. Soybeans dropping leaves reached 13%, compared with 6% a week earlier and a five-year average of 10%, according to Successful Farming’s summary of the report. Pod setting and leaf dropping describe crop progress; they are not additional condition categories.
Independent reader supportYour contribution helps us test, update, and keep practical guides available for everyone.How to read USDA’s weekly comparisons
Crop Progress reports are based on observations as of Sunday and are released at 4:00 p.m. on the first business day of each week from April 1 through November 30, according to USDA NASS methodology. When comparing weekly figures, match the week-ending dates and distinguish condition shares from progress measures. Condition tables show the five rating categories; progress tables may compare the current week with the prior week, prior year, and five-year average. NASS’s chart methodology explains how condition categories are displayed as stacked shares totaling 100%.
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