In its March 11, 2025 forecast, USDA raised projected U.S. wheat ending stocks for the 2024/25 marketing year by 25 million bushels to 819 million—23 million bushels above the 796-million-bushel trade expectation reported by Successful Farming. The increase reflected higher expected imports and lower expected exports, not a change in projected domestic use. These are historical forecast figures, not the current U.S. wheat outlook.
What USDA changed in its March 2025 forecast
USDA’s World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE-658), approved March 11, 2025, projected 2024/25 U.S. wheat ending stocks of 819 million bushels, up 25 million from the previous month’s forecast. The report said the projected total was 18 percent above the prior marketing year. USDA summarized the revision this way: “The outlook for 2024/25 U.S. wheat this month is for larger supplies, unchanged domestic use, lower exports, and higher ending stocks.”
Ending stocks are the amount of a commodity forecast to remain at the end of a marketing year. In a supply-and-use balance sheet, more supply or less use generally leaves more stock at the end. USDA’s March changes were:
- Imports: Raised by 10 million bushels to 140 million.
- Exports: Lowered by 15 million bushels to 835 million.
- Domestic use: Unchanged.
- Ending stocks: Raised by 25 million bushels to 819 million.
USDA said its export adjustment was based on Census export data through January and its expectations for sales and shipments during the remainder of the marketing year. The increase in projected imports and the reduction in projected exports both added to the amount expected to remain in U.S. stocks.
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How the estimate compared with trade expectations
Successful Farming reported a trade expectation of 796 million bushels for U.S. wheat ending stocks, attributing the benchmark to Bloomberg. USDA’s 819-million-bushel projection was therefore 23 million bushels higher. The 796-million figure is a reported average expectation, not a USDA estimate.
| Comparison | 2024/25 U.S. wheat ending stocks | Difference |
|---|---|---|
| USDA March 2025 forecast versus previous month | 819 million bushels; the previous forecast was 794 million | Up 25 million bushels |
| USDA March 2025 forecast versus reported trade expectation | 819 million versus 796 million bushels | USDA was 23 million bushels higher |
The 794-million-bushel previous forecast follows from USDA’s stated 25-million-bushel increase to 819 million. The trade comparison is a separate benchmark from the month-to-month revision.
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- Product packaging may vary.
What the global estimate showed
Successful Farming reported that USDA projected global 2024/25 wheat ending stocks of 260.1 million metric tons, compared with a Bloomberg-attributed trade expectation of 257.5 million metric tons. That put the reported global forecast 2.6 million metric tons above expectations. These global figures are a separate measure from U.S. stocks; bushels and metric tons should not be compared as though they describe the same scope or unit.
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The 819-million-bushel U.S. estimate describes USDA’s March 2025 forecast for the 2024/25 marketing year. It is not a present-day projection. WASDE is a monthly USDA forecast of U.S. and world supply and use for wheat and other commodities, and USDA’s March 2026 Wheat Outlook documents that a later WASDE was released on March 10, 2026. Anyone evaluating current wheat supply should use the latest USDA estimates rather than carry forward the March 2025 snapshot.
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Sources: USDA, World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates, WASDE-658 (March 11, 2025); Successful Farming, March WASDE trade expectations; Successful Farming, global wheat stocks and expectations; USDA WASDE overview; USDA Economic Research Service, Wheat Outlook, March 2026.
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