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USDA Lowers 2025 Corn and Soybean Production Estimates

USDA’s November 2025 outlook cut corn production by 62 million bushels and soybean production by 48 million versus September, as yield forecasts declined.
From TheFinanceBase Team3 min to read
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In its November 2025 outlook for the 2025/26 crop year, USDA lowered its corn production forecast by 62 million bushels and its soybean forecast by 48 million bushels compared with September. Those cuts did not mean both crops were below the prior year: USDA still forecast corn production 12% higher than in 2024, while soybean production was 3% lower.

What USDA forecast in November 2025

The November estimates came from two USDA reports with different roles. The National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) November Crop Production report estimated harvested acreage, yield, and production based on conditions as of November 1. USDA’s World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) used those figures in its broader supply-and-use outlook for the 2025/26 marketing year.

Measure Corn Soybeans
November 2025 production forecast 16.8 billion bushels (16.752 billion in the NASS table) 4.25 billion bushels (4.253 billion in the NASS table)
Change from September, as reported in November WASDE account Down 62 million bushels Down 48 million bushels
Yield forecast 186.0 bushels per acre; a record high 53.0 bushels per acre; a record high
Yield change from previous forecast Down 0.7 bushel per acre Down 0.5 bushel per acre
Harvested area 90.0 million acres, unchanged from previous forecast 80.3 million acres, unchanged from previous forecast
Change in production from 2024 Up 12% Down 3%

The rounded production totals and September comparisons are given in the November WASDE account reproduced by Successful Farming. NASS’s more precise November table reports 16.752 billion bushels of corn and 4.253 billion bushels of soybeans; its yield and acreage figures are in the November 2025 Crop Production report.

Why both production forecasts fell

Production depends on both harvested area and yield per acre. NASS left harvested area unchanged from its previous forecast for both crops, but lowered the expected yield: 0.7 bushel per acre for corn and 0.5 bushel for soybeans. That lower yield forecast reduced estimated production even though the expected harvested acreage did not change.

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For corn, the November WASDE account quoted USDA’s explanation: “Corn production is forecast at 16.8 billion bushels, down 62 million from September on a 0.7-bushel reduction in yield to 186 bushels per acre.” The soybean forecast likewise fell from September as its yield estimate declined, with the WASDE account putting the production reduction at 48 million bushels.

What changed in USDA’s supply-and-use outlook

A production revision is only one part of a crop balance sheet. USDA also accounts for supplies available from beginning stocks and forecasts how supplies will be used, including exports and domestic demand. In the November 2025 WASDE, larger beginning stocks more than offset lower corn production; USDA raised its corn export forecast and projected higher ending stocks. For soybeans, lower production reduced supplies, USDA forecast exports down 50 million bushels, and projected ending stocks fell marginally. These are USDA forecasts, not confirmed final outcomes or guarantees of a particular price move.

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Why there was no October yield update

USDA did not publish an October 2025 Crop Production report, so the November NASS report did not include an October 1 yield forecast. The WASDE comparison therefore used September estimates. USDA attributed limitations in the November supply-and-demand data to the lapse in federal funding from October 1 through November 12: “Due to lapse in government funding from Oct. 1–Nov. 12, some U.S. data sources that are typically used were not available for the November 2025 WASDE.”

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These are historical estimates, not today’s crop outlook

The figures above describe USDA’s November 2025 forecast for the 2025/26 crop year; they should not be read as current 2026 production estimates. In its September 11, 2026 report, NASS forecast 2026 corn production at 15.8 billion bushels, down 1% from its previous forecast, and soybean production at 4.53 billion bushels, up less than 1%. Those later estimates have a different crop year and a different direction of change by crop. See the September 11, 2026 Crop Production report for that outlook.

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