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The headline’s “next year” referred to USDA’s July 2025 forecast for the 2025/26 marketing year. USDA’s newer May 2026 forecast puts soybean oil use for biofuel at 17.8 billion pounds in 2026/27, an increase of 3.6 billion pounds from 2025/26. The newer forecast does not establish that biofuel will use more than half of U.S. soybean oil production.
What USDA forecasts for soybean oil and biofuel
USDA’s May 12, 2026 World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE-671) projected 17.8 billion pounds of soybean oil would be used for biofuel in marketing year (MY) 2026/27. That is 3.6 billion pounds more than USDA’s forecast for MY 2025/26. USDA’s Economic Research Service described the projected increase as 25 percent in its May 2026 Oil Crops Outlook. These are forecasts, not final measurements of actual use, and later monthly estimates may change them. USDA WASDE-671; USDA ERS, Oil Crops Outlook: May 2026.
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What the original headline meant
The headline came from a Reuters report published July 11, 2025. It described an earlier USDA forecast of 15.5 billion pounds of soybean oil use for biofuel in MY 2025/26 and said that amount represented more than half of U.S. soybean oil production in that forecast context. “Next year” meant the forecast year as understood in July 2025, not the latest USDA outlook. Reuters report republished by Investing.com, July 11, 2025.
That production-share claim should not be carried forward as a current 2026/27 figure: the later USDA material cited here gives a use forecast but does not state a directly comparable share of production.
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- A flavorless, versatile oil with a light texture
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How the forecast fits into soybean oil supply and demand
USDA projected total U.S. soybean oil demand to rise 7 percent in MY 2026/27. Higher domestic use, including biofuel demand, is partly offset by lower exports. USDA expected ending stocks to rise slightly, while stocks-to-use would be lower than in the prior year. Those figures describe different parts of the balance sheet: a large increase in one use category does not automatically mean exports stop or stocks fall in absolute terms. USDA WASDE-671.
Strong domestic demand also supports more soybean processing. USDA projected domestic soybean crush of 2.750 billion bushels in MY 2026/27, 120 million bushels above its 2025/26 forecast. The same outlook projected lower soybean oil exports as domestic demand strengthened. A forecast of lower exports is not a prediction that exports will disappear; it indicates how USDA expected competing uses to affect the balance sheet. USDA WASDE-671.
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What determines whether soybean oil is used for biofuel
Biofuel producers can use several fats and oils, so soybean oil competes with other potential feedstocks. USDA ERS forecast 5.6 billion pounds of canola oil use for biofuel in MY 2026/27 and expected imports of animal fats and used cooking oil to increase. The choices depend on relative availability, delivered cost, and the rules and incentives that apply to the fuel and its feedstock. USDA ERS, Oil Crops Outlook: May 2026.
USDA ERS identifies several factors that can change feedstock economics:
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- EPA renewable volume obligations for 2026 and 2027;
- the federal 45Z clean fuel production tax credit;
- state-level biofuel programs;
- foreign biofuel policies and tariffs; and
- transportation costs to renewable-diesel facilities and biodiesel plants.
The 2026 ERS outlook assumes current policies and expected feedstock availability and prices. Policy announcements or proposed rules do not by themselves guarantee that producers will use a particular quantity of soybean oil. USDA ERS, Oil Crops Outlook: May 2026.
Why the forecast matters beyond fuel markets
More domestic demand for soybean oil can affect the value of oil relative to other soybean products, the incentive to crush soybeans, and the amount available for exports or other uses. EPA’s April 1, 2026 rulemaking discusses soybean oil’s growing role as a biomass-based diesel feedstock, possible increases in domestic crush capacity, and the potential for feedstock diversion to intensify competition with food and other markets. Capacity scenarios in a rulemaking are projections, not evidence that all proposed or estimated capacity has been built. Federal Register, EPA RFS rulemaking, April 1, 2026.
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- A flavorless, versatile oil with a light texture
- Use it for cooking, frying, or baking, or in dressings and marinades
- 0g Trans Fat Per Serving
- Canola Oil Is a Cholesterol Free Food With 14g Of Total Fat Per Serving
- Kosher
How to read the numbers without mixing forecast years
USDA forecasts are updated over time. The 15.5-billion-pound estimate reported in July 2025 was a forecast for MY 2025/26; the 17.8-billion-pound estimate in USDA’s May 2026 WASDE was for MY 2026/27. The numbers differ both in marketing year and forecast date, so they should not be treated as a simple before-and-after measurement of actual consumption. USDA’s monthly estimates can shift as supply, realized use, prices, and policy conditions change. USDA WASDE-671; Reuters report republished by Investing.com, July 11, 2025.
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Product prices and availability are accurate as of the date/time indicated and are subject to change. Any price and availability information displayed on Amazon at the time of purchase will apply.
