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What USDA changed in its February corn forecast
USDA’s February WASDE projected U.S. corn ending stocks of 2.1 billion bushels for the 2025/26 marketing year, 100 million bushels below its January forecast. The agency described the outlook as one of greater exports and lower ending stocks. The figure is a forecast of the supply expected to remain at the end of the marketing year, not a direct inventory count on the report’s release date. USDA WASDE-668, February 10, 2026.
Why the ending-stocks estimate fell
The main change was exports. USDA raised its 2025/26 U.S. corn export forecast by 100 million bushels, to 3.3 billion, citing sales and shipments to date and robust foreign demand in January. The agency said shipments from September through January would most likely exceed 1.3 billion bushels. With more of the projected crop expected to be exported, the amount forecast to remain at marketing-year end declined.
| February WASDE item | Forecast or change |
|---|---|
| U.S. corn exports, 2025/26 | Raised 100 million bushels to 3.3 billion bushels |
| U.S. corn ending stocks, 2025/26 | Lowered 100 million bushels to 2.1 billion bushels |
| Likely September–January U.S. corn shipments | More than 1.3 billion bushels |
| World corn ending stocks, 2025/26 | 289.0 million metric tons, down 1.9 million tons |
Figures are from USDA’s February 2026 WASDE. The global estimate is a separate worldwide measure; it should not be read as a U.S. stock figure.
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Why the cut was described as a surprise
Successful Farming reported that the average trade expectation was for U.S. corn ending stocks to increase, and credited Dow Jones as the source of those expectations. That is a comparison with an outside market forecast, not a projection published or endorsed by USDA. The article’s framing supports saying USDA’s estimate defied expectations; it does not establish the details of the underlying poll beyond what the article reported. Successful Farming, February 10, 2026.
Does lower carryout mean corn supplies are scarce?
Not by itself. A 100-million-bushel month-over-month reduction means USDA expected a smaller year-end remainder than it had projected in January. It does not alone show that supplies were historically scarce or establish which way prices would move. USDA Economic Research Service’s February Feed Outlook described projected corn stocks of 2.127 billion bushels and a stocks-to-use ratio of about 13%, compared with a five-year average slightly below 10%. That ratio provides context for the supply outlook; it is not the same measure as the rounded 2.1-billion-bushel headline figure in WASDE. USDA ERS, Feed Outlook, February 12, 2026.
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Forecasts and stocks-on-hand reports measure different things
WASDE’s 2.1-billion-bushel figure was a forecast for the end of the 2025/26 marketing year. USDA’s later Grain Stocks report instead estimated old-crop corn physically on hand on September 1, 2026: 2.10 billion bushels, 35% above the September 1, 2025 level. The report also put June–August 2026 indicated disappearance at 3.20 billion bushels, compared with 3.09 billion a year earlier. These later observations are not a revision of the February WASDE forecast; they refer to a different date and statistical concept. USDA NASS, Grain Stocks, September 30, 2026.
Independent reader supportYour contribution helps us test, update, and keep practical guides available for everyone.What the report says—and does not say—about markets
Successful Farming quoted market advisers who characterized the report’s immediate tone or market response as largely neutral or muted. Those are attributed assessments, not a measured study showing how much the WASDE caused futures prices to move. The February forecast can inform a view of expected U.S. supply and demand, but it is not, on its own, a price signal or a guarantee of a particular market outcome.
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