U.S. farm tractor retail sales fell 21.2% year over year in January 2024, to 10,899 units from 13,834 in January 2023, according to the Association of Equipment Manufacturers (AEM). The decline was broad across the reported two-wheel-drive (2WD) horsepower classes, while four-wheel-drive (4WD) sales edged up. AEM’s figures show what sold, not why buyers held back; oversupply, higher interest rates and lower commodity prices were cited as market context by Successful Farming, not measured causes in AEM’s report.
What the January 2024 figures show
AEM’s January 2024 U.S. Ag Tractor and Combine Report gives preliminary monthly retail sales reported through member companies’ proprietary statistical programs. The figures cover U.S. equipment sales; they are not global totals or a count of every tractor transaction.
The table compares January 2024 with January 2023. Percent changes are AEM’s year-over-year figures.
| Equipment category | January 2024 units | January 2023 units | Year-over-year change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Total farm tractors | 10,899 | 13,834 | −21.2% |
| 2WD farm tractors, total | 10,678 | 13,616 | −21.6% |
| 2WD, under 40 hp | 5,941 | 8,014 | −25.9% |
| 2WD, 40 to under 100 hp | 3,222 | 3,769 | −14.5% |
| 2WD, 100 hp and above | 1,515 | 1,833 | −17.3% |
| 4WD farm tractors | 221 | 218 | +1.4% |
| Self-propelled combines | 451 | 474 | −4.9% |
The 2WD categories account for the large majority of the reported tractor units, and each posted a decline. Under-40-hp 2WD tractors had the steepest percentage drop among the listed 2WD classes. In contrast, 4WD sales rose by three units, or 1.4%; the gain was small in unit terms and did not offset the broader declines.
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Why might sales have fallen?
AEM’s report records preliminary retail sales and their year-over-year changes. It does not establish the reason for the declines or quantify the effect of any market condition.
A February 21, 2024, Successful Farming article described oversupply, high interest rates and lower commodity prices as contributing context for the weak start to the year. Those are market interpretations reported by that publication, not causal findings in AEM’s sales table. The available figures do not show how much, if anything, each factor contributed to January’s decline.
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The same article reported that Andy Campbell, Tractor Zoom’s director of insights, said the AEM grouping of larger tractors misses detail and that Tractor Zoom data showed an annual supply increase in tractors rated at 300 hp or more. That is a separate supply observation, not a breakdown of AEM’s sales totals or proof of the cause of the overall decline.
Independent reader supportYour contribution helps us test, update, and keep practical guides available for everyone.How to read the comparison
- Keep geography and equipment type distinct. AEM’s February 14, 2024, release also reported Canadian tractor sales down 29.9% year over year, U.S. combine sales down 4.9%, and Canadian combine sales down 9.5%. These are separate country-and-equipment comparisons, not components of the U.S. tractor total.
- Compare both percentage changes and unit counts. A percentage decline in a smaller category can represent fewer units than the same decline in a larger one; the table gives both measures.
- Treat the figures as a monthly snapshot. Preliminary January retail sales do not measure production, inventory, ownership costs, or a full-year trend.
AEM senior vice president Curt Blades characterized the 4WD increase as “positive news” as 2024 began, while noting overall sales fell in both the U.S. and Canada compared with January 2023. He also said AEM remained optimistic about future long-term growth. That optimism is a forward-looking comment, not a forecast supported by the January counts.
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