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Repair Windows errors before they cause bigger problemsFix Now →Fix the driver behind crashes, sound loss and screen glitchesFind Drivers →Clear out junk files and repair common Windows errorsFree Scan →In September 2025, Republican farm-state lawmakers warned that U.S. farmers could face “financial calamity” without new assistance soon. Their comments described an aid proposal under discussion—not a confirmed federal program. USDA said at the time it was considering whether further assistance was needed but had not decided to create an additional program.
What the September 2025 warning meant
Reuters reported on September 18, 2025, that four farm-state members of Congress were discussing an aid package with USDA and other administration officials. They wanted support by the end of the year, amid low crop prices and concerns about trade-war effects. Senator John Hoeven of North Dakota said assistance was needed “the sooner, the better, but certainly by year-end.” The lawmakers discussed an approach resembling payments made during President Trump’s first term trade dispute. Reuters report reproduced by Agriculture.com.
The warning was advocacy, not an announcement that money had been approved. Representative Rick Crawford of Arkansas said, “And if it’s not, we’re going to see a lot of financial calamity in rural America,” referring to the need for a signal that aid would be available. House Agriculture Committee Chairman Glenn Thompson said farmers were experiencing some of the worst economic times in his lifetime. These were lawmakers’ assessments, not a formal forecast of farm failures.
What USDA said at the time
A USDA spokesperson told Reuters the department was “exploring the need for further assistance but have not made a determination if an additional program is needed at this time.” Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins said she was working with Congress to evaluate how much aid might be needed; the report gave no amount or timeline from her.
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Why farmers described the pressure as immediate
The report connected the call for support to low crop prices, trade uncertainty and the challenge of repaying loans before financing another growing season. Arkansas farmer Scott Brown described the risk at a town hall: “Farming is done like Russian roulette. You have to pay out the loan to go again next year,” Reuters quoted him saying. That captures the cash-flow concern raised in the story: repayment obligations can arrive before a farmer knows what income the next season will bring.
What later forecasts say about farm income
Later figures provide context, but they do not turn the 2025 proposal into an enacted program. USDA’s Economic Research Service (ERS) and the University of Missouri’s Food and Agricultural Policy Research Institute (FAPRI-MU) issued different 2026 net farm income forecasts in September 2026. Both are projections, not final results.
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| Publisher and release date | 2026 measure | Compared with 2025 |
|---|---|---|
| USDA ERS, September 3, 2026 | Net farm income: $158.4 billion | Down $4.3 billion (2.6%) in nominal dollars; down $9.1 billion (5.5%) after inflation |
| USDA ERS, September 3, 2026 | Net cash farm income: $176.4 billion | Up $0.7 billion (0.4%) in nominal dollars; down $4.6 billion (2.5%) after inflation |
| FAPRI-MU, September 10, 2026 | Net farm income: $155 billion | $8 billion below its 2025 level; the update did not provide an inflation-adjusted comparison in the cited summary |
USDA ERS explains that net cash farm income counts cash receipts and farm-related income, including federal payments, minus cash expenses. Net farm income also includes noncash items. The two measures answer different questions, so they should not be treated as interchangeable. ERS also cautions that estimates can change as new information becomes available. See its farm-sector income forecast and farm income and wealth statistics.
FAPRI-MU’s September 10 update put 2026 net farm income at $155 billion, $8 billion below its 2025 level. It said crop prices were strengthening modestly from recent lows and that higher reference prices and other provisions in the 2025 One Big Beautiful Bill Act increased government program payments. Its figure is a separate forecast, not a revision to USDA’s estimate. FAPRI-MU’s September 2026 outlook update.
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How much government support was in USDA’s 2026 outlook
In its September 3, 2026 forecast, USDA ERS projected $47.4 billion in direct government farm program payments for 2026, up $19.5 billion (69.8%) from its $27.9 billion estimate for 2025. The 2026 projection included $26.5 billion in supplemental and ad hoc disaster assistance, primarily Farmer Bridge Assistance and Supplemental Disaster Assistance authorized by the American Relief Act of 2025. These are forecast figures, not a final tally of payments made.
The amount is not proof that the specific package discussed by lawmakers in September 2025 was enacted. It reflects the programs counted in ERS’s 2026 projection, which includes supplemental and ad hoc assistance. USDA ERS’s forecast details.
Independent reader supportYour contribution helps us test, update, and keep practical guides available for everyone.How to read the numbers without mixing them up
- Check the measure. Net farm income includes noncash items; net cash farm income focuses on cash receipts and expenses.
- Check whether dollars are nominal or inflation-adjusted. USDA’s forecast shows that the direction and size of year-over-year changes differ depending on the basis.
- Check the publisher and release date. The USDA ERS and FAPRI-MU figures are independent forecasts made on different dates, not competing final results.
- Check the payment category. Direct government payments and supplemental disaster assistance are included in the USDA outlook, but a forecast of payments does not establish that a particular 2025 proposal became law.
USDA’s September 2026 outlook listed December 2, 2026 as its next scheduled forecast release. Because estimates are revised as new data arrives, figures should be identified by forecast date rather than presented as settled outcomes. USDA ERS forecast schedule and estimates.
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