USDA’s 2026 forecasts point to a farm economy where production costs are climbing while sector-wide net farm income and cash receipts are expected to slip. That is a real squeeze, but it is a gradual one, and it is not the same as a national loss of farm jobs. The U.S. Department of Agriculture’s Economic Research Service (ERS) employment series shows agriculture and support-industry wage-and-salary jobs rising between 2010 and 2024. Those national numbers cannot confirm layoffs at any particular employer, plant, or town, so the sections below separate what the data show from what they do not.
What USDA projects for 2026
The baseline for this article is USDA ERS’s farm income estimates and forecasts dated September 3, 2026. The 2026 figures are forecasts, not realized results, and USDA revises them as new data arrive. Dollar changes are shown on the basis the agency reports: nominal (current dollars) unless marked inflation-adjusted.
| Measure (sector-wide unless noted) | 2026 forecast | Change from 2025 | Notes on scope |
|---|---|---|---|
| Net farm income | $158.4 billion | Down $4.3 billion (2.6%), nominal; down $9.1 billion (5.5%), inflation-adjusted | Sector-wide total; not an average per farm |
| Total farm production expenses | $492.8 billion | Up $21.2 billion (4.5%), nominal; up $7.1 billion (1.5%), inflation-adjusted | Livestock and poultry purchases, fertilizer and soil conditioners, and fuel and oils account for most of the increase |
| Total farm cash receipts | $540.3 billion | Down $1.7 billion (0.3%), nominal | Crop receipts up; animal and animal-product receipts down |
| Direct government farm payments | $47.4 billion | Up $19.5 billion from 2025; basis not stated | Excludes FCIC indemnities and USDA loans |
| Farm-sector debt | $605.1 billion | Up $26.4 billion (4.6%), nominal | Sector-wide debt; debt-to-asset ratio slightly higher |
| Average net cash farm income per farm business | $121,700 | Up 7.1%, nominal | Average for the defined farm-business population; not a sector total |
The pattern in the table is a cost squeeze. Expenses rise while receipts are roughly flat to lower, so the margin left for operators narrows. Part of the expense increase is inflation: once adjusted for it, the rise in expenses is much smaller than the nominal figure suggests, while the decline in net farm income is larger. Readers comparing these numbers with household budgets should always check which basis a figure uses.
Why production costs are rising
USDA names three expense categories as the main reasons the 2026 expense forecast is higher. Each affects farms differently, so the aggregate should not be read as a cost increase every operator faces equally.
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Livestock and poultry purchases
Buying animals to raise or finish is a large expense for operations that acquire livestock or poultry rather than raising all of their own. Because USDA also forecasts lower animal and animal-product receipts, operations that buy animals and sell animal products face a combination of higher input costs and weaker output revenue.
Fertilizer, lime, and soil conditioners
USDA groups fertilizer-related costs as a major driver of the expense increase. Fertilizer is a central input for crop production, so the increase matters most for crop operators. Crop receipts are forecast to rise overall, which means crop producers may see higher revenue offsetting some of this cost, but the offset varies by crop and by farm.
Fuel and oils
Fuel and oils are a cost that runs through field work, hauling, and equipment operation across most types of farming. USDA lists them among the three categories accounting for most of the expense increase. The forecast does not break out how much each commodity or region is affected.
Receipts: crops up, animal products down
Total farm cash receipts are forecast to dip slightly, but the mix matters more than the total. USDA expects crop receipts to rise and animal and animal-product receipts to fall. Within animal products, cattle receipts are expected to increase while egg receipts are forecast to fall sharply.
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Receipts are not profit. A farm with higher receipts can still see net income fall if its costs rise faster, and a farm with lower receipts can hold steady if its costs are contained. The receipts forecast explains why farm businesses do not share one outlook, but it cannot tell an individual operator whether they are gaining or losing money.
Three income measures that often get mixed up
Headlines about “farm income” often combine several measures that measure different things. USDA reports them separately, and the directions of change in the 2026 forecast differ.
| Measure | What it covers | 2026 direction in USDA’s forecast |
|---|---|---|
| Net farm income | Sector-wide total for U.S. agriculture | Down 2.6% nominal; down 5.5% inflation-adjusted |
| Average net cash farm income per farm business | Average across the defined farm-business population | Up 7.1%, nominal |
| Farm-household income | Farm households, including off-farm earnings | Not stated in the 2026 figures cited here |
A rising average per farm business does not mean the sector total rose. The two measures cover different populations and different totals, so they can move in opposite directions. Household income is different again: a farm household can receive off-farm wages that offset weak farm earnings, which is why farm-business figures alone do not describe household finances.
Which farms feel the pressure most
The 2026 outlook is uneven by region and by what a farm produces. These are averages for defined groups, not statements about every farm.
- Regions: USDA expects six of its nine farm resource regions to see higher average net cash farm income in 2026.
- Crop specializations: Most crop-specialized farm businesses are forecast to see higher average net cash farm income. Specialty crops are the exception.
- Animal and animal-product specializations: Overall, average net cash farm income is forecast to be lower.
Consumer food prices are outside the scope of these figures. The forecasts describe producer income and costs, and they do not establish how grocery or restaurant prices will move.
Debt is rising, but lender stress is limited so far
USDA forecasts farm-sector debt to rise and the debt-to-asset ratio to edge up. A rising debt load is a real pressure point for operators with thin margins, but the available evidence does not describe sector-wide insolvency or an acute crisis.
The Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City’s regional assessment, dated May 2026, found that financial conditions had tightened gradually and that financial stress remained limited in the regions it covered. It pointed to low loan delinquency rates, stable average farmland values, and modest leverage. It also cited government payments and strong cattle prices as cushions. Those findings describe conditions as of May 2026 in that regional scope, and they could change as 2026 cost and income data are revised.
Are farm jobs vanishing?
The national employment series does not show farm jobs disappearing. It does not rule out losses at specific employers or in specific places, but it cannot confirm them either.
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USDA ERS’s analysis of Bureau of Labor Statistics Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW) data shows agriculture and support-industry wage-and-salary employment at 1.07 million in 2010 and 1.18 million in 2024, a 10% increase. According to the ERS analysis, employment stabilized in the 2000s and rose gradually after 2010. The support industries in the count include farm labor contractors, so the series is broader than production agriculture alone.
What the employment series cannot tell you
- It counts wage-and-salary jobs covered by the QCEW, so it is not a complete count of all farm work. Owner-operators and others without payroll are not captured in the same way.
- It does not include some smaller employers in states that exempt them from state unemployment insurance coverage.
- It is a national and annual series through 2024. It does not record individual layoffs, and it does not cover 2026 employment.
- A national increase can coexist with job losses at a particular plant, equipment maker, or rural community. Establishing such a loss requires the employer, location, and date, plus primary evidence for that case.
Labor costs and wages
Labor costs are a separate question from employment counts. USDA ERS reports that labor costs averaged 10.4% of gross cash farm income across all farms in 2021–23, compared with 11.0% in 1998–2000. That sector-wide share has not trended upward over the comparison. These are historical averages for those periods, not 2026 estimates.
The burden is uneven. Labor-intensive fruit, vegetable, greenhouse, and nursery operations face higher labor-cost shares than the sector as a whole, and those are the operations most exposed to labor price changes.
Wages have also grown in real terms. USDA ERS reports that real nonsupervisory farm wages grew at an average annual rate of 1.2% between 1990 and 2024 and 1.9% over the most recent ten-year period in that series. The table below compares average real hourly wages for 2024.
Best Value
| Worker group (2024) | Average real hourly wage (2024 dollars) |
|---|---|
| Nonsupervisory farm workers | $18.12 |
| Comparable nonfarm workers | $30.13 |
Source: USDA ERS analysis of USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service Farm Labor Survey data, 2026. Rising wages do not establish falling employment, and rising employment does not show that wages are falling; each measure needs its own evidence.
Independent reader supportYour contribution helps us test, update, and keep practical guides available for everyone.How to check a farm job-loss claim
When a headline says farm jobs are vanishing, these checks separate a supported claim from a broad one:
- Name the employer or facility, the location, and the date. A claim without all three cannot be checked against evidence.
- Identify the measure. National wage-and-salary employment, labor cost shares, and wages are different series that move independently.
- Check whether the figure is realized or forecast. The 2026 USDA values are forecasts subject to revision.
- Check the basis. A change stated in nominal dollars can look very different after adjusting for inflation.
- Check the geography. A national average does not describe a single operation, commodity, or region.
What to watch next
- Revisions to USDA ERS’s 2026 net farm income, expense, and receipts forecasts, which can change the direction of the figures in the table above.
- Updates to the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City’s regional assessments of farm financial conditions, including delinquency and farmland values.
- Updated QCEW-based employment figures, which would extend the employment series beyond 2024.
- Animal-product prices, especially cattle and eggs, since they drive much of the difference in receipts across animal specializations.
For a household budget, the most useful distinction is between a margin squeeze and a balance-sheet failure. The evidence described here points to the first: costs rising faster than receipts and debt growing, while delinquency and land values remained stable in the Kansas City Fed’s May 2026 assessment.
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