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U.S. existing-home sales rose 1.5% in September 2026, but the gain was monthly only: sales remained 2.2% below September 2025, and the national pace stayed just under 4 million annualized. Inventory grew and the median sale price was higher than a year earlier, while a separate mortgage-rate reading in the week before October 13 reached 7.4%. The rate reading came after September’s sales period, so it provides context—not proof of what caused September closings.
What September’s sales increase does—and doesn’t—show
The National Association of REALTORS® (NAR) reported that existing-home sales increased 1.5% from August to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 3.99 million in September 2026. That pace was slightly above the 3.98 million economists expected, according to the Associated Press (AP). The monthly rise followed a downward revision to August’s result. NAR’s September release and AP’s report put the increase in context: sales were still down 2.2% from September 2025.
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The 3.99 million figure is not the number of homes that sold during September. It is an annualized pace: the hypothetical number of closings over 12 months if September’s seasonally adjusted rate continued. NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun said, “Despite the small monthly gain on a seasonally adjusted basis, August and September marked the two slowest months for home sales this year.”
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Outbyte PC Repair FREERepair Windows errors before they cause bigger problemsFix Now →Outbyte Driver Updater FREEFix the driver behind crashes, sound loss and screen glitchesFind Drivers →Existing-home sales count completed transactions reported through Multiple Listing Services. The series covers single-family houses, townhomes, condominiums and co-ops. It is different from new-home sales, which are counted when buyers sign contracts or accept a deposit; the two series can therefore move in different directions in the same month. NAR says existing-home sales account for more than 90% of total home sales and use a larger monthly data sample. Seasonal adjustment accounts for typical seasonal patterns, but cannot correct for abnormal weather. NAR explains the series and its methodology.
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Inventory rose, while prices remained higher year over year
Total existing-home inventory stood at 1.60 million units in September, up 1.9% from August and 4.6% from a year earlier. That represented 4.8 months’ supply at the current sales pace: unchanged from August and above the 4.5 months recorded in September 2025. Months’ supply is a national ratio, not a guarantee that buyers have similar choices or leverage in every city, price range or property type.
NAR said higher inventory and longer time on the market were improving buyers’ negotiating position. Yun put the seller-side implication this way: “Higher inventory and lengthening days on market give buyers improved negotiating power. Home sellers need to be realistic about local market conditions, which could require price discounts and other incentives to attract buyers.” More listings can widen a buyer’s options, but local supply and demand determine whether that translates into room to negotiate.
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The median price across all existing-home types was $417,500, up 1.3% from September 2025. NAR described this as the 39th consecutive month of annual price gains. A median is the midpoint of sale prices, not an average, and a change in the types or locations of homes sold can move the median even when no individual home has appreciated by that amount. NAR advises comparing prices with the same period a year earlier because of seasonal buying patterns.
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Regional results were uneven
The national monthly increase concealed different patterns across the four regions. Sales rose in the South and West, were unchanged in the Midwest and fell in the Northeast. Year-over-year sales were lower in all four regions. The regional price medians reported by NAR also varied, even though each was above its year-earlier level.
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| Region | Sales change from August 2026 | Sales change from September 2025 | Median price and annual change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Northeast | −2.1% | −4.1% | $523,600; +4.7% |
| Midwest | Unchanged | −2.1% | $329,600; +3.1% |
| South | +2.8% | −0.5% | $361,000; +0.2% |
| West | +2.8% | −5.2% | Not stated in the available September release excerpt |
These figures are from NAR’s September 2026 release. The South’s small annual price gain and the West’s steeper annual sales decline illustrate why a national median or sales pace should not be treated as a forecast for a particular local market.
Affordability and mortgage rates add context
NAR’s Housing Affordability Index was 105.4, down from 106.7 a year earlier. NAR reported year-over-year affordability declines in the Northeast, Midwest and South, while affordability rose 1.0% in the West. The index and regional results describe broad affordability conditions; they do not determine whether a particular household qualifies for a mortgage or can manage a given payment.
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- CONFIDENTLY AND EASILY SOLVE: Clients' financial questions whether they're buyers, sellers, investors or renters. Increase your perceived professionalism as a new agent, experienced broker or seasoned loan officer. Close more home sales and impress your clients with fast, accurate answers to all their real estate finance questions from PITI Payments to IRR, NPV and Cashflows
- DEDICATED BUYER QUALIFYING KEYS: Enter client's income, debt and expenses to pre-qualify them to only show properties they can afford. Include tax, insurance and mortgage insurance then compare loan options and payment solutions to give your client choices before they make an offer to buy
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NAR’s September sales release said mortgage-rate increases in recent weeks meant fewer buyers could qualify, but the available release text does not give a September monthly average mortgage rate. The separate 7.4% figure came from AP: the average 30-year mortgage rate reached that level in the week before AP’s October 13, 2026, article, its highest in nearly three years. AP’s October 9 rate report gave the same current reading and noted that the rate had briefly dipped below 6% in late February before rising. These are weekly observations reported in October, not September’s average. AP attributed the rise in long-term bond yields used by lenders to price home loans to higher inflation expectations amid surging oil prices; that is AP’s explanation, not a causal estimate from NAR.
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1Fix the driver behind crashes, sound loss and screen glitches2Clear out junk files and repair common Windows errors3Scan for outdated or missing drivers - takes under a minuteFor buyers, higher rates can reduce the amount a household can borrow or raise the payment on a given loan, making qualification harder. Yun’s comment about fewer buyers qualifying reflects that pressure. But the October weekly rate cannot be used to explain September closings: the observation came later, and NAR did not provide a September monthly average in the available release text.
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How to use the report if you are buying or selling
The national report is useful for understanding direction, but decisions depend on local listings, prices, financing and household budgets. A one-month rise does not establish a sustained recovery, particularly when sales remain below the prior year and mortgage costs are changing.
Quick Recap
- If you are buying: Use current local listings and recent comparable sales to judge available choices and negotiating room. Ask a lender to calculate payments and qualification using current terms and your own finances rather than relying on a national affordability index.
- If you are selling: Compare your property with recent local sales and competing listings. National inventory growth and price gains do not show whether buyers in your neighborhood will accept a particular asking price.
- If you are tracking the market: Compare the same region and period across months, and keep monthly changes separate from year-over-year changes. Watch whether sales, inventory and prices continue in the same direction over several releases before calling a single uptick a recovery.
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