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1Fix the driver behind crashes, sound loss and screen glitches2Repair Windows errors before they cause bigger problems3Scan for outdated or missing drivers - takes under a minuteThe latest final University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index available on October 7, 2026, fell to 48.1 in September from 51.7 in August. The university called it a four-month low—not a nearly three-year low. That older description refers to the November 2025 reading of 50.4. The next preliminary result, for October 2026, was scheduled for October 9 at 10 a.m. ET and had not yet been released.
What the latest consumer sentiment numbers show
The University of Michigan’s final September 2026 index was 48.1, down 3.6 points from August and 7.0% month over month. It was 12.7% below September 2025’s 55.1. The index combines consumers’ assessments of current economic conditions with their expectations for the future.
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| Measure | September 2026 | August 2026 | Change or comparison |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consumer Sentiment Index | 48.1 | 51.7 | Down 3.6 points month over month; down 12.7% from September 2025 |
| Current Economic Conditions Index | 50.9 | 51.9 | Down 15.7% from September 2025 |
| Index of Consumer Expectations | 46.3 | 51.5 | Down 10.4% from September 2025 |
These are survey index readings, not percentages of consumers who are optimistic. The University of Michigan publishes the final figures and historical comparisons on its current results page and described the September decline in its September release.
Why consumers reported a weaker outlook
The university said views of current and expected personal finances weakened by about 10% during September. Prices were a prominent concern: about 55% of consumers cited elevated prices as a negative factor in their personal finances, compared with 53% in August and 44% a year earlier. Spontaneous references to gasoline rose to 31% of consumers. Unsolicited comments about tariffs increased for a second month, from 24% in July to 35% in September.
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Interest rates also weighed on reported home- and vehicle-buying conditions. For homes, higher rates overtook elevated prices as the leading factor consumers cited. The university described the decline as broad across political groups: sentiment among Republicans was 20% below January 2026, and among Democrats it was down 13% over the same period. Those comparisons describe reported sentiment; they do not show that political affiliation caused the change.
Inflation expectations rose
In the September survey, consumers’ year-ahead inflation expectations rose to 4.6% from 4.0% in August, the highest reading since June. Long-run expectations edged up to 3.4% from 3.3%, ending a three-month stretch at 3.3%. These are consumers’ expectations for inflation, not the rate of inflation measured in prices.
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Why “nearly three-year low” refers to November 2025
The phrase in the headline comes from coverage of an earlier survey result. In November 2025, the index stood at 50.4, down 6.2% from the preceding month and nearly 30% from a year earlier. The Associated Press characterized that reading as a three-year low. It is not the description the university used for September 2026, which it called a four-month low.
In its November 2025 report, the AP quoted Surveys of Consumers director Joanne Hsu saying consumers were expressing worries about possible economic consequences as the federal government shutdown continued. The same AP report quoted Pantheon Macroeconomics economist Oliver Allen raising the possibility that the switch from phone to online sampling could have introduced a structural break and more downbeat results. That was Allen’s caveat as reported by AP; the university’s current survey page describes web interviews but does not quantify a mode effect. See the AP report on the November 2025 result.
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How to interpret a monthly change
The university’s Surveys of Consumers is a rotating panel survey based on a nationally representative sample. Each household in the coterminous United States has an equal probability of selection, and interviews are conducted online throughout the month. The index measures reported perceptions and expectations; it is not a direct count of household spending, a measure of inflation, or an economic-output statistic.
The university says a monthly change of at least 4.8 points is required for statistical significance at the 95% level for the headline Sentiment Index. The corresponding threshold is 6 points for each of the Current Economic Conditions and Index of Consumer Expectations measures. The September headline index fell 3.6 points from August, less than its stated threshold. A month-to-month movement of that size should therefore not be described as statistically significant under the university’s criterion.
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A sentiment reading can help show how consumers view their finances and the economy, but the index alone does not establish that spending will fall, that a recession is imminent, or that a particular policy outcome will follow.
Independent reader supportYour contribution helps us test, update, and keep practical guides available for everyone.When the next reading was due
As of October 7, 2026, the next preliminary University of Michigan result—covering October—was scheduled for October 9, 2026, at 10 a.m. Eastern Time. The result was not yet available. The university’s current results page is the place to check for the release.
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