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U.S. milk production fell for two consecutive years, in 2023 and 2024. That was the finding in USDA’s February 2025 report, and it still describes those two years accurately. It no longer describes the most recent year. The National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) reported in its April 2026 annual summary that production rose 2.6 percent in 2025, to 231.658 billion pounds.
What the two-year decline looked like
The 2024 drop was small in percentage terms. The February 2025 NASS report put 2024 production at 225.868 billion pounds, 0.2 percent below the 226.311 billion pounds recorded for 2023. The later annual summary revised 2024 slightly, to 225.889 billion pounds, but the direction of the change did not move.
The table below sets the figures side by side. Values marked as derived were not published directly in the cited releases; they were calculated from the published totals, per-cow figures and year-over-year changes, and they are shown so the arithmetic can be checked.
| Measure | 2023 | 2024 (February 2025 estimate) | 2024 (revised, April 2026 summary) | 2025 (April 2026 summary) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total milk production | 226.311 billion lb | 225.868 billion lb | 225.889 billion lb | 231.658 billion lb (reported as 232 billion) |
| Output per cow | 24,117 lb (derived) | 24,178 lb | 24,172 lb (derived from the stated 218-lb gain) | 24,390 lb |
| Average milk cows | 9.384 million (derived) | 9.342 million | 9.345 million (derived from the stated 153,000 gain) | 9.498 million |
Two things stand out. First, the 2024 decline came from cow numbers. Second, the 2025 rebound came from both more cows and more milk per cow.
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Why 2024 fell
Production is roughly the number of cows multiplied by the output of each cow. In 2024, the average herd shrank by 42,000 head, about 0.45 percent of the 2023 inventory. Output per cow rose by 61 pounds, about 0.25 percent. The gain in milk per cow was real, but it was smaller than the loss in cows, so total output fell.
The USDA figures show these two movements but do not explain why the herd shrank. The sources reviewed for this article do not establish a complete cause for the 2023 and 2024 declines, so any single explanation for those years would go beyond the evidence.
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Why 2025 rebounded
In 2025, both inputs moved up. The average herd grew by 153,000 cows, about 1.6 percent, and output per cow rose by 218 pounds, about 0.9 percent. Together these account for the 2.6 percent increase in total production.
USDA’s Economic Research Service (ERS) links the 2025 increase to a larger cow inventory associated with expanding dairy processing capacity. That is ERS’s explanation, and it describes an association rather than a measured cause. The NASS data show the change in cow numbers but do not isolate how much of it came from processing capacity.
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NASS revises its estimates. Each annual summary can revise the prior year, and the five-year Census of Agriculture data can lead to further revisions. For that reason, the February 2025 figures and the April 2026 figures are not interchangeable. Use the following rules when you cite them:
- When explaining what the original 2025 headline said, use the February 2025 estimates for 2023 and 2024 and label them as such.
- When comparing 2024 with 2025, use the revised 2024 figures from the April 2026 annual summary, since the 2.6 percent change is measured against that base.
- Keep units explicit: billion pounds for total output, pounds for output per cow, and million head for average cow inventory.
- If you are writing about 2026 rather than completed calendar years, check NASS’s most recent monthly Milk Production report, because the annual summary covers only full-year totals.
What ERS says about the longer trend and demand
ERS places the recent declines in a longer context. In its words: “While total milk production historically trended upward, driven by higher productivity per cow, the sector recorded back-to-back annual declines in overall output in 2023 and 2024.” The two-year drop therefore broke a pattern in which rising productivity per cow had usually pushed output higher.
ERS also tracks domestic disappearance of dairy products as a proxy for domestic consumption. From 2014 to 2025, domestic disappearance grew at a compound annual rate of 1.24 percent a year on a milk-fat equivalent basis and 0.78 percent a year on a skim-solids equivalent basis, according to ERS data accessed in 2026. ERS notes that fluid milk consumption declined over the period while cheese demand has been an important force shaping the industry. These are demand indicators that provide background. They are not evidence of what caused the annual changes in farm production.
Independent reader supportYour contribution helps us test, update, and keep practical guides available for everyone.How NASS builds the estimates
NASS’s milk survey draws samples from lists of dairy producers in each state. Where feasible, it uses state or federal administrative data rather than running a separate monthly or quarterly survey. NASS publishes monthly data for the 24 major milk-producing states and for the U.S. as a whole. Its quarterly reports include production and inventory information for all states. The February monthly report includes totals for the prior two years, which is why the February 2025 release carried the 2023 and 2024 figures used above.
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The figures measure production, not prices. Nothing in the USDA releases cited here establishes how production changes passed through to retail milk or cheese prices, so this article does not draw that link. The figures also do not explain why the herd contracted in 2023 and 2024 beyond the arithmetic above, and the processing-capacity explanation for 2025 comes from ERS as an association.
For the current picture, the April 2026 NASS annual summary is the authoritative source for the 2025 totals, and the most recent NASS monthly report is the source for 2026 output.
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