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When asked on March 9, 2025, whether the United States could enter a recession, President Donald Trump did not rule it out. He described the economy as potentially going through a “period of transition” and defended tariffs as a policy that would bring benefits over time. That answer left a gap between the possibility of near-term economic pain and the promise of eventual gains.
What Trump said about a possible recession
Fox News host Maria Bartiromo raised the possibility of a recession during a March 9, 2025 interview. Trump did not dismiss the possibility. He framed the economy as undergoing a possible “period of transition” and argued that his tariff strategy would pay off eventually. Contemporary accounts reported the exchange; the precise wording beyond that short phrase should be checked against the interview recording before being quoted.
In practical terms, his answer accepted that the transition could involve short-term disruption rather than promising that a recession would be avoided. It did not establish that a recession had begun, or that tariffs would necessarily produce the long-run gains he forecast.
Why tariffs raised near-term concerns
In the March 9–10 news cycle, businesses and markets were reacting to tariff announcements and changes in their timing, including tariffs announced and then paused for Canada and Mexico, as well as plans for broader tariffs. The uncertainty itself mattered: firms faced difficulty planning around shifting rules, while consumers could face higher prices if import costs rose and were passed along.
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Contemporary reporting described concerns about weaker near-term growth alongside the risk of price increases. Trump rejected calls for more clarity and maintained that tariffs would ultimately be beneficial. Those were competing claims about possible effects, not settled outcomes.
What the Atlanta Fed estimate did—and did not—show
Coverage at the time cited the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow estimate as pointing to a possible contraction in first-quarter 2025 economic output. GDPNow is a real-time estimate, not the government’s final GDP report. A negative nowcast can signal risk and change as data arrive; by itself, it does not prove that a recession has started.
That distinction is important because a forecast, a quarterly GDP result and a recession determination are different things. The estimate was an early indicator being discussed amid market concern, not confirmation of the eventual economic outcome.
Could tariffs cause a recession?
The March 2025 reporting documented risks, not a definitive causal verdict. Tariffs can raise the cost of imported goods or inputs, and uncertainty over policy can make businesses more cautious. Those channels could weigh on prices, investment or growth. Trump’s counterargument was that tariffs would produce eventual benefits. The reviewed contemporary coverage does not establish which effects ultimately prevailed or whether tariffs alone caused any later economic result.
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Outbyte PC Repair FREEClear out junk files and repair common Windows errorsFree Scan →Outbyte Driver Updater FREEFix the driver behind crashes, sound loss and screen glitchesFind Drivers →For households, the relevant question was not only whether a recession would occur, but how policy uncertainty and possible price changes might affect budgets, jobs and business decisions. The answer depended on how tariffs were implemented, how companies responded and what broader economic conditions followed.
Independent reader supportYour contribution helps us test, update, and keep practical guides available for everyone.How to read the “period of transition” explanation
“Transition” described Trump’s framing of possible short-term disruption in pursuit of a longer-term policy goal. It was not a measurable economic category, a guarantee of recovery or an explanation that resolved the recession risk. The phrase put the emphasis on promised future benefits while leaving the near-term costs uncertain.
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The core tension in the exchange was therefore straightforward: Trump acknowledged that a recession could not be ruled out while defending a policy that he said would eventually help the economy. At the time, neither the forecast of tariff benefits nor predictions of near-term harm could be treated as a confirmed result.
Quick Recap
What was known in March 2025
- Trump did not rule out a recession when asked about one on March 9.
- He described a possible “transition” and defended tariffs as beneficial over time.
- Market and business concerns centered on shifting tariff policy, uncertainty, potential price increases and weaker growth.
- The cited Atlanta Fed figure was a nowcast for first-quarter output, not final GDP data or proof of recession.
- Contemporary coverage set out competing predictions; it did not establish the tariffs’ final causal effects.
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