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Where the 104 percent figure came from
The headline emerged in early April 2025, after the April 2 reciprocal-tariff action and China’s retaliation against it. The April 2 order declared a national emergency tied to the U.S. goods-trade deficit and set up reciprocal duties with a list of exceptions. Those duties were then modified repeatedly as both governments responded to each other. Contemporary coverage framed the moment as “Tariffs on China set to rise to at least 104%.” That was the increase expected at the time, not a rate that was in force for long.
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Readers who saw “104 percent” in April 2025 were looking at a projection tied to a specific moment. It should be dated to that week and not read as a standing tariff.
The sequence of rates, in order
The number moved within days, and each figure describes a different point or a different way of counting. The table below lists the reported figures in date order.
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| Date | Figure | What it measured | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| April 2025 (early) | 104% | Expected increase on Chinese goods following the reciprocal-tariff action and China’s retaliation | Contemporary press coverage, April 2025 |
| April 9, 2025 | 125% | Reciprocal tariff on China announced by President Trump, “effective immediately” | Presidential statement, April 9, 2025 |
| After April 9, 2025 | 145% | Cumulative total after the earlier 20 percentage points of fentanyl-related duties were added to the 125 percent reciprocal rate | Associated Press reporting on a White House clarification |
| May 12, 2025 | 115 points cut; 10% kept | Both countries agreed to reduce tariffs by 115 percentage points and suspend the heightened reciprocal tariffs for 90 days, keeping a 10 percent reciprocal tariff during the pause | White House announcement, May 12, 2025 |
| November 1, 2025 (announced) | 10 points cut from November 10, 2025 | Reduction of China fentanyl-related tariffs; heightened reciprocal tariffs kept suspended through November 10, 2026, with a 10 percent reciprocal tariff remaining | White House fact sheet, November 1, 2025 |
| February 20, 2026 | Collection ended for listed IEEPA duties | Executive Order 14389 directed agencies to stop collecting the additional duties it enumerated, including those under the 2025 China fentanyl and reciprocal-tariff orders | White House, Executive Order 14389, February 20, 2026 |
Why 104, 125 and 145 percent all appeared
The three figures are not competing estimates of one rate. They answer different questions.
- The 125 percent figure was the new reciprocal rate the president announced on April 9, 2025. It is a single tariff component, not the full charge on a shipment.
- The 145 percent figure is a cumulative total. It adds the 20 percentage points of fentanyl-related duties that were already in place. The Associated Press reported the White House clarification on this basis.
- The 104 percent figure was the expectation reported during the escalation, before the 125 percent announcement, and it should not be compared directly with either later total.
The general point is that a headline tariff percentage is only one layer. Customs duties on a given import can combine several legal authorities. Whether two rates stack depends on the legal authority of each, the product’s classification, the country of origin, the date of entry, and any exemptions. The Congressional Research Service has emphasized that the 2025 tariff actions were largely cumulative and that rates varied by product and country of origin. Its cited report reflects May 2025 status, so its details describe that period rather than today.
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What changed the legal footing
The 2025 reciprocal and fentanyl duties were imposed under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act, known as IEEPA. Executive Order 14389, signed February 20, 2026, directed agencies to end collection of the IEEPA duties it listed. The order expressly left other duties in place, including duties under Section 301 and Section 232 of U.S. trade law. The May 2025 pause also kept prior duties, including Section 301, Section 232, fentanyl-related and most-favored-nation duties, in effect.
This means the duties that still apply to a Chinese import depend on which authority covers that product. The order is not a product-by-product tariff schedule, and the sources reviewed here do not provide a complete rate for each Harmonized Tariff Schedule classification as of October 8, 2026.
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Trade figures behind the dispute
The administration has reported declines in the U.S. goods deficit with China and a shrinking share of U.S. imports from China. These figures come from government sources, and each is attributed to the agency that published it.
| Measure | Value | Reported by and when |
|---|---|---|
| U.S. goods trade deficit with China, 2024 | $295.4 billion | The White House, 2025 |
| U.S. goods trade deficit with China, 2025 | $202 billion | Office of the U.S. Trade Representative, 2026 |
| China’s share of total U.S. imports | About 9 percent | Office of the U.S. Trade Representative, 2026, in testimony by Ambassador Jamieson Greer |
The USTR testimony links part of the deficit decline to reduced dependence on China. That is the administration’s stated explanation. The figures alone do not establish cause, because trade flows also reflect exchange rates, demand, supply chains and rerouting through other countries.
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What to check before assuming a duty applies
If you are a consumer, the practical effect of these changes usually shows up in retail prices and in the country-of-origin labels on what you buy. If you import goods yourself, a headline rate tells you little about your final bill. Work through these checks in order:
- Confirm the date of entry, since the schedules changed in April 2025, May 2025, November 2025 and February 2026.
- Identify the product’s Harmonized Tariff Schedule classification and country of origin.
- Identify each duty layer that applies, such as Section 301 or Section 232 duties, which the 2026 order did not remove.
- Check whether any IEEPA-based duty still applies to that entry under the February 2026 order, and whether the suspension announced in November 2025 is still scheduled through November 10, 2026.
- Check the current figures with U.S. Customs and Border Protection or a licensed customs broker before pricing a shipment, because the sources reviewed here do not supply a complete product-level schedule.
Reading the 104 percent headline as a permanent tariff on Chinese goods would lead to the wrong price estimate. The rate that applied in April 2025 has been replaced by a sequence of later actions, and the duty on any given product now depends on its legal authority and classification.
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