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Outbyte Driver Updater FREEScan for outdated or missing drivers - takes under a minuteDriver Scan →Outbyte PC Repair FREEClear out junk files and repair common Windows errorsFree Scan →Pre-release estimates for Thunderbolts* became more encouraging and more specific in April 2025: an April 4 forecast put its domestic opening weekend at $65 million–$85 million, while an April 29 report of THR-cited tracking narrowed the domestic estimate to $70 million–$73 million. These were estimates published before the film opened in U.S. theaters on May 2, not box-office results.
What are the Thunderbolts* box-office projections?
The estimates varied by publication date, geography, and measurement window. The $70 million–$73 million figure was a reported domestic opening estimate; the $160 million–$175 million figure was a separate international opening estimate, not another domestic range.
| # | Preview | Product | Price | |
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| 1 |
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Thunderbolts* - 4K + Blu-ray + Digital | $44.79 | Buy on Amazon |
| 2 |
![Marvel Studios: Thunderbolts* (2025) [Blu-ray]](https://m.media-amazon.com/images/I/51b-yhuB81L._SL160_.jpg)
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Marvel Studios: Thunderbolts* (2025) [Blu-ray] | $34.95 | Buy on Amazon |
| 3 |
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Thunderbolts* (4K Ultra HD + Blu-ray) | $41.20 | Buy on Amazon |
| 4 |
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Thunderbolts* | $19.99 | Buy on Amazon |
| Publication date and source | Geography and window | Estimate and type |
|---|---|---|
| April 4, 2025 — Boxoffice Pro | Domestic opening weekend | $65 million–$85 million forecast |
| April 25, 2025 — Shawn Robbins, Box Office Theory | Domestic Thursday previews | $10 million potential preview estimate in Robbins’s model; not a reported result |
| April 29, 2025 — ComingSoon, relaying THR-cited tracking | Domestic opening | $70 million–$73 million reported tracking estimate |
| April 29, 2025 — ComingSoon, relaying THR-cited tracking | International opening | $160 million–$175 million reported tracking estimate |
| May 4, 2025 — Associated Press | Domestic opening weekend | $76 million post-release estimate |
Did the projections change before release?
Yes. Boxoffice Pro’s April 4 long-range forecast covered a wide $20 million span, from $65 million to $85 million for the domestic opening weekend. By April 29, ComingSoon reported THR-cited domestic tracking in the narrower $70 million–$73 million range. That later range was more specific and somewhat more encouraging than the earliest published range, but it remained a pre-release estimate.
The April 25 Box Office Theory article offered another indication rather than a replacement weekend forecast: Shawn Robbins modeled a potential $10 million in domestic Thursday previews. Robbins described early social-media reactions following the selected critics’ embargo lift as encouraging and supportive of recent tracking. He also said the broader critic sample was expected April 29 and cautioned that tracking ranges were not final forecasts and could shift with market conditions.
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- After being ensnared in a death trap, an unconventional team of antiheroes assembles and embarks on a dangerous mission. Forced to confront the darkest corners of their pasts, will the group tear themselves apart, or find redemption and prevail?
Why were the forecasts uncertain?
Boxoffice Pro identified several factors that could affect the opening. It said Thunderbolts* faced a more competitive first month than Captain America: Brave New World, might lose premium-format access after its opening weekend, and could depend partly on word of mouth to reach less-casual Marvel Cinematic Universe viewers. Familiarity with some of the characters could help, but that did not remove the uncertainty around audience turnout.
More generally, a tracking range is a snapshot, not a guarantee: ticket sales, reviews, word of mouth, showtimes, and competing releases can all affect projections as opening day approaches. The April 29 report attributes its updated tracking to THR, but does not provide the underlying methodology or name a forecaster, so the $70 million–$73 million figure is best understood as reported tracking rather than an independently verified model.
Rank #2
- Can this disparate group of antiheroes overcome their difficult pasts and form a real team capable of stopping the Void and saving the world?
What happened after the May 2 release?
Thunderbolts* opened in U.S. theaters on May 2, 2025. On May 4, the Associated Press reported an estimated $76 million domestic opening. That post-release estimate falls within Boxoffice Pro’s earlier $65 million–$85 million range, but it was not known when the April forecasts were published. AP also reported strong reviews and an A- CinemaScore at the time.
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Product prices and availability are accurate as of the date/time indicated and are subject to change. Any price and availability information displayed on Amazon at the time of purchase will apply.
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