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Outbyte PC Repair FREERepair Windows errors before they cause bigger problemsFix Now →Outbyte Driver Updater FREEFix the driver behind crashes, sound loss and screen glitchesFind Drivers →In the 19 midterm-election observations from 1950 through 2022, the S&P 500 was higher 12 months after Election Day every time. That is a striking historical record, not a dependable forecast: evidence using a longer period reports a 95% positive rate, and the outcome after the 2026 midterm election is not yet known.
What the 19-for-19 record measures
The S&P 500 tracks large-cap U.S. equities, comprising 500 leading companies and covering approximately 80% of available U.S. market capitalization, according to S&P Dow Jones Indices. The headline statistic concerns the index’s price return: whether its level was higher about 12 months after a midterm election than at the start of the post-election period. Capital Group’s analysis uses Election Day as the starting point and reports an average one-year price return of 15.4% after midterms since 1950; its analysis was current as of January 15, 2026.
Price return does not include dividends. Total return does, so figures using those measures are not interchangeable. Nor is a 12-month post-election result the same as performance during the calendar year in which the election took place.
Why “19 out of 19” depends on the sample
The 19 observations cover midterm elections from 1950 through 2022. Capital Group’s chart, which extends through 2023, also reports no negative one-year post-midterm price return and gives a 15.4% average. Fidelity uses a longer historical window: it says the S&P 500 posted a positive price return in the 12 months following midterms 95% of the time since 1938. That broader result means the 1950–2022 streak should not be described as an all-history record. The studies differ in the period covered; the figures establish a historical frequency, not the odds for 2026.
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| Evidence | Window and measure | Reported result |
| Tempora | 19 midterm elections, 1950–2022; post-election 12-month changes | Positive in all 19 observations |
| Capital Group | Midterms since 1950; one-year S&P 500 price return measured from Election Day; analysis current January 15, 2026 | No negative one-year return in its chart; 15.4% average |
| Fidelity | 12 months after midterms since 1938; price-return frequency | Positive 95% of the time |
A positive year after the election can follow a rough election year
The post-election record does not mean midterm election years themselves were usually positive. In Tempora’s 1950–2022 sample, only 11 of the 19 midterm calendar years finished higher, and the median calendar-year change was +1.06%. The table identifies double-digit declines in 1966, 1974, 2002, and 2022. Those calendar-year figures describe a different window from the 12 months after Election Day.
BlackRock’s comparison likewise finds weaker average annual U.S. stock market returns in midterm years than in non-midterm years: 7.5% versus 12.4%. Its separate six-month comparison reports average S&P 500 total returns of 14.1% after midterms versus 5.7% in non-midterm years, based on midterms since 1970 and data as of August 13, 2026. These figures use different time periods and return measures, so they should not be treated as a direct restatement of the 12-month price-return streak.
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What the evidence says—and does not say—about 2026
Available 2026 context does not settle whether the pattern will continue. BlackRock reported U.S. stocks up 13.1% through August 2026, describing it as the sixth-best start to a midterm year since 1926; it also counted four S&P 500 daily moves of at least 2% in either direction through August. Those are observations about the period before the election, not a forecast of the following year.
The Federal Reserve’s July 2026 report said S&P 500 prices relative to analysts’ earnings projections remained in the upper range of their historical distribution, while the equity premium was near the lower end of its historical range. Fidelity pointed to policy uncertainty—including concerns involving oil, tariffs, consumer prices, and interest rates—and emphasized that earnings, capital spending, and economic conditions matter to markets. These indicators can frame the risks investors are weighing; none identifies the market’s direction after the 2026 election.
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Why the streak is not a portfolio rule
Nineteen observations are a small sample, and an index that has tended to rise over long periods can produce many positive rolling windows without a midterm election causing the gains. Tempora notes that no mechanism has been established for the pattern. A historical frequency may be informative, but it cannot guarantee that the next interval will resemble the previous ones.
Fidelity’s Anu Gaggar, vice president of capital markets strategy, put the investing implication succinctly: “Vote in the booths, not in your portfolios,” Fidelity’s midterm-election analysis reports. For a personal portfolio, the 19-for-19 statistic is not by itself a reason to buy, sell, or change an investment plan. Whether 2026 breaks the pattern can only be known after the post-election period has passed.
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