The U.S.-Iran war has disrupted more than oil shipments: it has constrained crude, refined products, LNG and industrial feedstocks moving through and around the Persian Gulf. Rerouting and additional production elsewhere have cushioned the shock, but neither has fully replaced lost Gulf supply or made the remaining routes secure. As of the September 2026 outlooks, the effects were still visible in elevated oil prices, inventory draws and uncertainty about how quickly exports and damaged LNG capacity could recover.
Why the Strait of Hormuz matters to energy markets
The Strait of Hormuz is a shared maritime chokepoint for oil and gas. The International Energy Agency (IEA) says about 20% of global LNG supply moved through it in 2025. When the conflict effectively closed the Strait to LNG traffic, almost one-fifth of global LNG supply was temporarily lost from the market, according to the IEA’s second-quarter 2026 Gas Market Report.
Oil and gas are affected differently. Crude and refined products can sometimes be redirected through pipelines, ports or other suppliers; LNG depends on specialized liquefaction, shipping and receiving infrastructure. A substitute barrel of oil also does not replace a cargo of gas for every use. The disruption therefore reached beyond crude prices to diesel, LNG and petrochemical feedstocks—the inputs used to make many industrial products.
The IEA estimated that each month without LNG cargoes transiting the Strait represented around 10 billion cubic metres (bcm) of lost supply. It reported that the resulting volatility pushed Asian and European gas prices to their highest levels since the 2022–23 energy crisis. North American and African LNG production increased and partly offset Gulf losses, but did not make the missing cargoes immaterial.
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How the oil shock changed over time
The immediate constraint: shut-ins and falling inventories
In its September 2026 Short-Term Energy Outlook, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) estimated that crude production shut-ins averaged 6.7 million barrels per day (b/d) in August, compared with 5.0 million b/d in July. The agency associated August’s price strength with constrained Middle East exports, production shut-ins, the U.S. blockade on Iranian oil exports, sanctions and attacks that affected Saudi exports through Bab el-Mandeb.
The supply pressure showed up in inventories. EIA estimated global oil inventories fell by an average 3.9 million b/d in the second quarter of 2026. Its September outlook forecast further average draws of 3.0 million b/d in the third quarter and 1.7 million b/d in the fourth quarter. Inventory draws can help meet demand during a disruption, but they reduce the buffer available to absorb another shock.
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Adaptation: rerouting and new supply
Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates redirected some exports to routes that bypass Hormuz, including Saudi Arabia’s Yanbu port on the Red Sea and the UAE’s Fujairah port on the Gulf of Oman. IEA analysis put exports through the cited bypass routes at 4.1 million b/d in February 2026, 7.8 million b/d in June and 5.5 million b/d in August. The August figure was provisional. The IEA said Houthi attacks affected Red Sea flows, and that attacks on the Saudi East-West pipeline in early September curtailed bypass flows further.
The same IEA analysis estimated that bypass flows had offset more than 500 million barrels of losses from Hormuz since the conflict began—an average 2.8 million b/d over the period it assessed. It also estimated that producers outside the Gulf added a cumulative 420 million barrels, or 2.3 million b/d, since the start of the war. These are estimates of additional supply and rerouted volumes, not evidence that the lost Gulf flows were fully replaced. The IEA said Hormuz oil exports showed signs of increasing but remained below pre-war levels.
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Prices and the September outlook
Brent crude averaged $91 per barrel in August 2026, up $7 from July, according to EIA’s September outlook. EIA forecast Brent near $90/b for the second half of 2026, tying that projection to constrained exports and inventory draws. It also forecast average production shut-ins of 5.7 million b/d in the fourth quarter of 2026.
Those figures are observations and forecasts in an outlook released September 9, 2026, based on forecasts completed September 3—not a guarantee of where prices will settle. EIA forecast Brent averaging $77/b by the second quarter of 2027 and $67/b in the second half of 2027 as flows and inventories recover. It warned that conflict-driven volatility could make short-term prices more variable than its forecast.
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Why gas and LNG may feel the effects for longer
Shipping disruption is only one part of the gas story: damaged liquefaction facilities and delayed capacity additions can constrain supply after routes reopen. In its second-quarter 2026 Gas Market Report, the IEA estimated combined Qatar and UAE LNG losses of around 20 bcm in March and April 2026, and said restarting and ramping liquefaction plants could take several weeks.
The longer-term figures are conditional estimates, not observed final losses. Under an assumption that repairs to damaged Qatari facilities take four years, the IEA estimated output could be nearly 70 bcm lower by 2030. It also estimated that the delayed North Field East expansion could reduce supply by close to 20 bcm over 2026–2030. Combining these effects, the agency estimated cumulative LNG supply losses of about 120 bcm over 2026–2030, roughly 15% of expected global supply during that period. The IEA expected new liquefaction projects to offset those losses over time.
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What the disruption can mean for household finances
Energy-market shocks can reach household budgets through different channels, but the impact depends on where a person lives and how they buy energy. A rise in crude prices can affect fuel and transport costs; constrained LNG can matter for gas buyers and for electricity systems that use gas. Higher costs for transport fuels or industrial feedstocks can also put pressure on the cost of moving or making goods. These are possible routes of transmission, not a forecast of a particular household’s bill.
- Geography matters: The IEA reported particularly high gas-price volatility in Asia and Europe. The available market data do not establish a matching change in retail bills for every country.
- Contracts and pricing rules matter: The wholesale price movement does not translate uniformly into household prices; the timing and size of any pass-through depend on local markets and billing arrangements.
- Fuel exposure differs: A household that buys petrol or diesel faces a different channel from one using gas for heating, or one whose electricity price is linked to gas markets.
- The figures are not a personal cost estimate: The market data here do not quantify how much more any particular household will pay.
How the outlook differs by fuel, route and time horizon
| Market and route | What was disrupted or adapted | What the dated evidence says |
|---|---|---|
| Oil through Hormuz | Middle East export constraints and production shut-ins tightened available supply; some crude moved through bypass routes or came from outside the Gulf. | EIA’s September 2026 outlook reported Brent at $91/b on average in August and forecast around $90/b for the second half of 2026. The IEA said Hormuz oil exports remained below pre-war levels. |
| Oil via bypass routes | Saudi and UAE exports used routes including Yanbu and Fujairah to avoid Hormuz, while Red Sea attacks and later pipeline attacks constrained those alternatives. | IEA analysis put bypass exports at 4.1 million b/d in February, 7.8 million b/d in June and a provisional 5.5 million b/d in August 2026. |
| LNG through Hormuz | The effective closure stopped almost one-fifth of global LNG supply from transiting the Strait for the time being; higher production in North America and Africa partly offset losses. | The IEA’s Q2 2026 report estimated around 10 bcm of lost supply for each month without LNG cargoes transiting Hormuz. |
| LNG capacity and recovery | Facility damage and delayed expansion may constrain future supply even after shipping routes improve. | Under a four-year repair assumption, the IEA estimated close to 120 bcm in cumulative LNG losses over 2026–2030, about 15% of expected global supply for that period. |
What earlier oil forecasts do—and do not—show
The IEA’s June 2026 Oil Market Report is an earlier snapshot, not the latest oil-price outlook. It forecast that global oil demand would decline by 1.1 million b/d year on year in 2026 and that global supply would fall by 3.9 million b/d to 102.4 million b/d before a forecast rebound in 2027. It also reported large inventory draws and refinery-throughput cuts. Because those were June assessments, they should not be read as later observed totals or substituted for EIA’s September price outlook.
Taken together, the evidence describes distinct phases rather than a single price shock: an initial loss of flows, partial adjustment through rerouting and other producers, renewed constraints on alternative routes, and an uncertain recovery shaped by inventories and infrastructure repair. The IEA’s estimates and EIA’s forecasts are dated snapshots; the September outlooks do not establish what prices, shipping volumes or household bills will be after those forecast periods.
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