USDA’s 2025/26 outlook put U.S. corn producers between a sharply larger projected crop and demand strong enough to absorb much—but not all—of the added supply. In its September 12, 2025 forecast, USDA projected record exports of 3.0 billion bushels, yet still put ending stocks at 2.1 billion bushels and the season-average farm price at $3.90 per bushel. These are forecasts, not final 2025/26 results.
Why corn prices faced pressure in 2025
The central pressure was abundance: USDA projected a very large harvest and a larger carryout, the amount expected to remain at the end of the marketing year. More corn available relative to expected use can weigh on futures and the national average price, even if demand is growing.
In its August 14, 2025 outlook, USDA’s Economic Research Service (ERS) projected 2025/26 production of 16.7 billion bushels, based on 88.7 million harvested acres and a yield of 188.8 bushels per acre. It raised its ending-stocks forecast by 457 million bushels, to 2.117 billion, and lowered its season-average farm-price forecast by 30 cents to $3.90 per bushel. The same report raised projected feed and residual use by 250 million bushels, ethanol use by 100 million, and exports by 200 million; those increases did not prevent projected stocks from rising. USDA ERS’s August 2025 outlook provides the dated estimates.
How the USDA price forecast changed
USDA price projections shifted as the year progressed. Each figure below belongs to its report date and forecast round; they should not be combined as though they were one final balance sheet.
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| Report date and agency | 2025/26 season-average farm-price forecast | Other relevant forecast details |
|---|---|---|
| May 14, 2025 — USDA ERS | $4.20 per bushel | ERS said new-crop futures had trended lower since late February amid expectations of a record-large crop. It left the 2024/25 season-average farm-price estimate at $4.35 per bushel. May outlook. |
| August 14, 2025 — USDA ERS | $3.90 per bushel | Production forecast: 16.7 billion bushels; ending-stocks forecast: 2.117 billion bushels. August outlook. |
| September 12, 2025 — USDA World Agricultural Outlook Board (WAOB) | $3.90 per bushel | Production forecast: 16.8 billion bushels; yield: 186.7 bushels per acre on 90.0 million harvested acres; exports: 3.0 billion bushels; ending stocks: 2.1 billion bushels. September WASDE. |
The May-to-August decline shows why a forecast should always be attributed to its publication date. A projection is a snapshot, not a guaranteed sale price or a final accounting of the crop year.
Why strong exports did not erase the price pressure
Demand was an important counterweight. In its September 12, 2025 World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE), USDA projected record 2025/26 exports of 3.0 billion bushels, citing U.S. export competitiveness and robust early-season demand. The report forecast 16.8 billion bushels of production and 2.1 billion bushels of ending stocks, with stocks slightly lower than in the previous month’s outlook. The season-average farm-price forecast nevertheless remained $3.90 per bushel. USDA’s September 2025 WASDE lays out that balance.
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Strong exports and lower prices can coexist because price reflects the balance between total available supply and total expected use—not exports in isolation. Record exports can absorb a substantial amount of corn without eliminating a surplus if production is also exceptionally large. In the August outlook, higher projected feed, ethanol, and export use still left USDA forecasting 2.117 billion bushels of ending stocks.
What “corn price” means to a grower
Futures
Corn futures are traded benchmarks used in forward pricing and are one element in USDA’s price-estimation framework. The May 2025 ERS outlook noted that new-crop futures had been trending lower since late February as expectations of a record-large crop developed.
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Basis and the local cash bid
Basis is the local relationship between a cash price and a futures price. It varies with location, delivery point, timing, and local market conditions. A national forecast cannot tell a grower what a particular elevator will bid; the relevant comparison is the cash offer at the delivery point and date the grower can use.
USDA’s season-average farm price
The season-average farm price is a national marketing-year measure, not a quote for a specific day, farm, or elevator. ERS describes its framework as using monthly prices received or forecasts, nearby futures, basis, and monthly marketing weights. Its documentation also distinguishes ERS model estimates from official USDA forecasts: “Notice the model forecasts are not official USDA forecasts.” The official WASDE price forecast is provided separately. USDA ERS’s season-average price documentation explains the method and distinction.
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How to use the national outlook in a farm decision
A national season-average forecast is context for a marketing decision, not a personal margin estimate or a recommendation to sell at a particular time. To make it relevant to a specific operation, compare it with an actual local cash bid and account for the factors the national outlook cannot establish:
- Price and basis: record the futures reference and local basis behind the cash bid.
- Delivery: note the delivery point, date, and any applicable delivery conditions.
- Storage and timing: consider whether storage is available and what costs or constraints affect when corn can be sold.
- Farm finances and risk: account for production costs, cash-flow needs, and the operation’s tolerance for price risk.
USDA’s outlook process is a monthly interagency exercise that draws on surveys and administrative data, market and trade reports, weather analysis, statistical and economic analysis, and expert judgment. The National Agricultural Statistics Service supplies most crop-production forecasts as well as monthly and historical price data; WAOB coordinates and issues WASDE. USDA’s WASDE materials provide the agency’s outlook reports.
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The national projections do not establish a local basis, a farm’s production costs or breakeven, its storage access, or the final realized 2025/26 price and stocks. A grower assessing a current sale needs current local bids and applicable USDA data rather than relying on a dated forecast alone.
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