Motilal Oswal’s reported ₹65 target for Suzlon Energy implied about 73% upside against the share price used in October 12, 2026 coverage. That is a dated comparison between a brokerage target and a market price—not a forecast or guarantee that investors will earn 73%. The brokerage’s Buy view rests on expected delivery and earnings growth, a sizeable order book, and a supportive wind-power outlook; converting those expectations into results is the central risk.
What the 73% upside figure means
On October 12, 2026, The Economic Times reported that Suzlon shares were down nearly 30% year on year and 26% so far in 2026. It cited an early-trade NSE price of ₹38.69 alongside Motilal Oswal’s ₹65 target. Financial Express separately described a 31% decline over three months and also reported the ₹65 target and 73% implied upside. These are market observations from the dates and periods stated, not current prices or returns. The Economic Times; Financial Express.
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The implied upside is the percentage difference between the reference share price and the target: ₹65 is roughly 73% above a price near ₹37.6. The Economic Times’ cited ₹38.69 early-trade quote is not exactly that reference price, so the 73% calculation should be understood as the publication’s contemporaneous comparison, not calculated as an exact return from ₹38.69. It excludes any change in the share price after the report, and it does not account for dividends, taxes, fees or the possibility that the target will not be reached.
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How Motilal Oswal arrived at ₹65
As reported by Livemint and in a July 2026 report recap carried by Moneycontrol, Motilal Oswal valued Suzlon at 30 times estimated FY28 earnings per share (EPS) to arrive at ₹65. The report recap said the multiple was slightly above the brokerage’s cited historical average of 27 times two-year-forward earnings. Livemint; Moneycontrol.
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This is a valuation scenario, not a price floor. A lower-than-estimated FY28 EPS would reduce the value supported by the same multiple; a lower valuation multiple would reduce it even if earnings estimates were met. The ₹65 figure therefore depends on both Motilal Oswal’s earnings assumptions and the market’s willingness to pay 30 times those earnings.
Why the brokerage is bullish
A large order book may support deliveries
Motilal Oswal’s order book was reported at 5.9 GW at the end of Q1 FY27. The brokerage reportedly views it as enough to provide delivery visibility through Q3 FY28. An order book is evidence of contracted or booked work, not proof that all projects will be completed on schedule or recognized as revenue.
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Delivery and earnings forecasts point to a recovery
Motilal Oswal reportedly estimated FY27 deliveries of 3.3 GW, including 2.1 GW in the second half, and FY28 deliveries of 3.8 GW. The Economic Times summary put its H1 FY27 delivery estimate at 1.2 GW. Financial Express cited about 1.3 GW of FY27-to-date orders—a separate order-intake measure, not deliveries. The brokerage also forecast EBITDA growth at a 22% compound annual growth rate from FY26 to FY28, and cited a pattern in which the second half typically contributes 60–65% of annual EBITDA. These are brokerage estimates and observations as relayed by the publications, not company guidance established here. The Economic Times; Financial Express; Livemint.
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The coverage said India added about 3 GW of wind capacity in H1 FY27. Motilal Oswal extrapolated a historical pattern in which H2 installations are about 1.5 times H1, implying roughly 4.5 GW in H2 and about 7.5 GW for FY27. That is a projection, not a completed full-year result. Financial Express cited an MNRE expectation of 7.5–8 GW of additions for FY27; the figure is a government expectation as reported by the publication, not a Motilal Oswal estimate. Financial Express.
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The brokerage’s demand case also points to evening peak power needs and wind-solar hybrid and firm, dispatchable renewable energy (FDRE) projects as potential supports for wind deployment. Livemint cited May evening peak power prices of ₹8.08/kWh in 2023, ₹9.40/kWh in 2025 and ₹9.71/kWh in 2026, drawing on a July 2026 paper by the Economic Advisory Council to the Prime Minister. Those figures refer to the paper’s stated May context; they are not Motilal Oswal data or a direct measure of Suzlon’s revenue. Livemint.
Repowering, exports and DevCo offer additional possibilities
Financial Express and Livemint reported further opportunities cited by the brokerage: repowering older wind installations, evaluating export markets, and expanding its development-company (DevCo) model. Motilal Oswal reportedly estimated a repowering opportunity of up to 25 GW and cited more than 600 MW of DevCo orders in the first four months of FY27. These are opportunity and order figures as reported, not assurance of future revenue, completed projects or profits. Financial Express; Livemint.
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What could undermine the Buy case
Orders must turn into completed work
The investment case depends on Suzlon delivering the forecast volumes and translating them into earnings. Delays, execution problems or weaker order conversion could leave actual results below the estimates underpinning the target. Financial Express and Livemint identify delivery or execution targets as important monitorables.
The target relies on optimistic earnings and valuation assumptions
The 30-times FY28E EPS multiple is above the 27-times historical average cited in the report recap. If earnings fall short, or investors assign a lower multiple, the value implied by the model would decline. The brokerage’s reported 22% EBITDA CAGR is a forecast, not a guaranteed growth rate.
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Sector growth and newer opportunities remain uncertain
The projected FY27 wind additions rely in part on extrapolating the H1 installation pace and a historical seasonal pattern. Demand, project timing and the conversion of repowering, export and DevCo opportunities into profitable work may differ from the brokerage’s assumptions.
There is also evidence of estimate variability: a July 2026 recap of a Motilal Oswal report said one quarter’s revenue was 2% below the brokerage’s estimate, deliveries 5% below, EBITDA 13% below and adjusted PAT 26% below. That was a historical quarterly miss; on its own, it does not establish that the October forecast will be missed. Moneycontrol.
How to read the rating as an investor
Motilal Oswal’s reported Buy rating is one brokerage’s view, based on estimates and a valuation method. The available October coverage summarizes the brokerage’s position rather than reproducing its complete model, so readers cannot verify every forecast assumption from those summaries alone. Treat ₹65 and 73% as dated analyst opinion, not personal financial advice or a promised return. Before using the thesis to make a decision, consider whether the delivery assumptions, earnings growth and valuation multiple make sense for your own time horizon and risk tolerance.
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