Supply-chain risk has not disappeared; it has become a continuing operating condition. Early-2026 survey evidence shows high concern about disruption, fewer businesses reporting contingency suppliers than a year earlier, and UK directors already seeing shortages linked to the Iran conflict. The figures come from different surveys, dates and populations, so they should be read as signals—not one universal risk percentage.
What the latest evidence actually shows
Two 2026 sources describe the problem from different angles. Gallagher surveyed business owners from 29 January to 10 February 2026. The Institute of Directors (IoD) reported UK directors’ responses on 1 May 2026 in the context of the Iran conflict. Their results are not directly combinable.
| Measure | Gallagher business-owner survey | IoD directors’ reporting |
|---|---|---|
| Population and geography | Surveyed business owners; geography and sample details should be taken from Gallagher’s 2026 survey page | Directors, with UK-focused reporting |
| Timing | 29 January–10 February 2026 | Published 1 May 2026 |
| Current or expected disruption | 63% were very or extremely concerned about disruption affecting their business in the coming year | 20% said their organisation had already experienced shortages because of the Iran conflict |
| Severity among those reporting shortages | Not stated | Among the 20% reporting shortages, 32% called them significant |
| Preparedness | 61% reported contingency suppliers, down from three in four the prior year | Not stated |
| Tariffs | 88% said tariff effects remained concerning, down from 98% the year before | Not stated |
Why “remain” matters
Gallagher characterizes its findings as evidence that supply-chain concerns are no longer viewed as temporary but as a baseline business condition. That is a description of its survey results, not a quotation from an individual respondent. The same survey shows that concern remains high even as the tariff figure eased from the previous year.
Preparedness also appears less widespread: 61% reported having contingency suppliers, compared with 75% in the prior year. That does not prove every business became less resilient—the surveys may differ in respondents or conditions—but it does show that a backup-supplier arrangement is not universal.
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Timing limits the 2026 baseline
Gallagher collected responses before major Middle East trade-route effects and temporary import surcharges announced in late February 2026. Its figures therefore provide an early-2026 baseline, not a complete measurement of developments later in the year. The timing is essential when comparing the survey with later reporting.
What UK directors say is already tightening
The IoD reported that one in five directors said their organisation had already experienced shortages because of the Iran conflict. Within that group, 32% judged the shortages significant. The 32% is therefore a share of the shortage-reporting group, not of all directors or all UK companies.
Looking forward, 52% of directors said they were worried about shortages in the coming months. Among that worried group, the most frequently identified input categories were:
- Fuel or energy: 76%
- Components or parts: 35%
- Industrial materials: 34%
These percentages describe the categories selected by directors who were worried about future shortages. They are not percentages of all UK businesses. Read the IoD account in its full context at the Institute of Directors’ 1 May 2026 article.
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How to interpret the risk without overclaiming
Separate experienced disruption from anticipated disruption
A reported shortage is an event that respondents say has already happened. Concern about shortages is a forward-looking expectation. The two measures answer different questions and should not be treated as equivalent.
Identify the exposed input
Energy, components and industrial materials create different operational dependencies. A company may have a strong alternative for one input and no practical substitute for another. The IoD categories help organize the discussion; they do not establish a ranking of risk for every industry.
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Check the denominator
Always state whether a percentage covers all respondents or only a subgroup. This prevents the common error of turning “32% of directors who reported shortages” into “32% of businesses had significant shortages.”
Attach the date and geography
Gallagher’s early-February collection window and the IoD’s UK-focused May reporting reflect different conditions. A percentage without its date, population and location can sound more precise than the evidence allows.
Continuity planning: what official guidance says
UK Cabinet Office guidance for central government departments, agencies and non-departmental public bodies identifies supply-chain concerns and the loss of key partners as warning signs of corporate financial distress. It advises authorities to monitor risk, engage suppliers and review contingency plans, updating them when concerns remain about a supplier’s ability to maintain services. See the GOV.UK Corporate Financial Distress Guidance note, updated 17 September 2026.
This is guidance for UK public authorities, not a legal requirement or universal checklist for private companies. Private businesses can nevertheless use the same logic when reviewing their own exposure:
- Map critical dependencies: list suppliers, locations, lead times and inputs for which there is no quick substitute.
- Define warning signals: monitor missed deliveries, deteriorating supplier finances, route restrictions and unusual price or availability changes.
- Engage key suppliers early: ask about capacity, inventory, transport alternatives and their own continuity plans.
- Test realistic contingencies: verify that a proposed alternative supplier can meet required specification, volume, quality and delivery time.
- Set decision triggers: decide in advance when to approve safety stock, qualify a second source or change operating plans.
What this means for household finances
For individuals, the surveys do not establish a forecast for particular prices or shortages. They do show why supply-related surprises can remain a budget risk rather than a one-off event. A practical response is to keep a cash buffer, avoid relying on a single source for genuinely essential goods or services, and check whether your employer’s income depends heavily on one vulnerable supplier or route. These are risk-management choices, not guarantees against disruption.
The practical conclusion
Supply-chain concerns remain elevated because businesses are still preparing for disruption while some organisations are already reporting shortages. The strongest conclusions are limited but useful: concern is widespread in Gallagher’s early-2026 survey, contingency-supplier coverage was lower than the prior year, and IoD reporting found both existing and anticipated shortages among UK directors. Treat each figure as context-specific, then use dependency mapping and tested alternatives to turn concern into a manageable continuity plan.
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