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One free scan finds every outdated or missing driver and matches the right update for your exact hardware.Free scan · exact hardware matchIn First Trust’s 1928–2024 table, the S&P 500 produced an average 11.6% total return in presidential election years, and returns were positive in 21 of 25 years. That is a historical description, not evidence that elections or their outcomes cause market returns or predict the next one.
What the historical election-year record shows
First Trust’s table, attributed to First Trust, Morningstar and Bloomberg, reports S&P 500 total returns for the 25 presidential election years from 1928 through 2024. The average was 11.6%, and 21 years—84%—had positive total returns. Four were negative, so the pattern is not “the market always rises in an election year.”
The average also conceals a wide range. The table reports a 43.6% return in 1928 and a -37.0% return in 2008. An average does not describe what an investor would have experienced in any particular year.
There is an important historical qualification: the S&P 500 launched on March 4, 1957. Earlier observations in the 1928–2024 series are hypothetical back-tested history, not returns from a live S&P 500 index. S&P Dow Jones Indices states this distinction in its election-year infographic.
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Why published election-year averages can differ
Not every chart measures the same kind of return. First Trust’s 11.6% figure is a total return, which includes dividends as well as changes in share prices. S&P Dow Jones Indices’ election infographic instead labels its figures as price returns in U.S. dollars, excluding dividends. Those averages should not be compared as if they were calculated on the same basis.
The S&P 500 is an index, not an investment an individual can buy directly. An investor’s actual result in a fund tracking the index can differ because of fees, taxes, tracking differences and the timing of purchases or sales. S&P Dow Jones Indices cautions that “It is not possible to invest directly in an index.”
Time period matters, too. A table covering election years from 1928 through 2024 is not directly interchangeable with a price-return comparison ending in 2023 or a series beginning with the index’s 1957 launch. Dividend treatment, start and end dates, and whether earlier data are back-tested can all change the figure being summarized.
Do election years or winning parties predict stock returns?
The historical figures establish what happened in a particular sample; they do not show that an election caused the return or that the result predicts the next year’s market. Studies cited here do not establish a dependable party-based return signal.
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In a 2004 Federal Reserve paper, Sean D. Campbell and Canlin Li revisited earlier claims of a presidential-cycle effect using alternative WLS and GARCH estimates. They found that estimates were smaller and varied across subsamples; their findings were consistent with neither risk nor return varying significantly across the presidential cycle. This is evidence against treating a presidential term as a reliable market-timing rule, not proof that election-related effects are impossible in every period.
Vanguard’s separate analysis compared a 60/40 portfolio’s returns in election and non-election years using 1860–2020 data. It reported annual returns of 8.7% in election years and 7.7% in non-election years, but found no statistically significant difference. That result concerns Vanguard’s specified portfolio and dataset; it is not an S&P 500 total-return estimate.
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Vanguard also examined trading-price ranges around elections from 1984 to 2020. Its measure was annualized volatility calculated from each day’s high-low range divided by the opening price—not conventional close-to-close volatility. On that measure, volatility was 16.5% in the 100 days before elections and 15.9% in the 100 days after, compared with 17.9% over the full period. These figures describe one volatility measure and election window; they do not establish a return forecast.
Independent reader supportYour contribution helps us test, update, and keep practical guides available for everyone.A separate market-and-election-outcome correlation
S&P Dow Jones Indices’ infographic reports that, in its sample of elections since 1944, the party controlling the White House won 82% of the time when the S&P 500 rose between July 31 and October 31. When the index declined over that window, the incumbent party lost 89% of the time. This is a retrospective association between market movement and election outcome, not proof that stocks determine who wins, or a rule for forecasting stock returns after an election. The infographic notes that many variables affect average returns and does not draw a causal conclusion.
How to use the history
- As context: Election years have often had positive S&P 500 total returns in the cited 1928–2024 table, but the four negative years and the large range matter as much as the average.
- Not as a forecast: The average does not identify the next year’s return, the effect of a particular candidate, or the direction of the market after election day.
- Check the definition: Before comparing a chart with another, check whether it reports price return or total return, what dates it covers, and whether pre-launch figures are back-tested.
S&P Dow Jones Indices puts the limitation plainly: “Past performance is never an indicator of future performance.”
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