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The Finance Base
bank deposits

Stablecoins May Not Drain Banks of Dollars—but They Can Make Lending More Expensive

Stablecoins may leave aggregate bank deposits intact while shifting who holds them and how quickly they can move. That can affect bank liquidity and lending, but the size of any broader effect depends on reserve choices, settlement, and bank constraints.

By TheFinanceBase Team 6 min read
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Buying a stablecoin does not automatically remove a dollar from the banking system: the issuer may keep the money in a bank account, or use it to buy Treasury bills and leave a deposit with the seller. But even when aggregate deposits remain, they can shift from many customers’ accounts to large, concentrated issuer balances. That change can make funding less stable or more expensive for some banks, and can lead them to hold more liquidity or reduce lending. How much that affects borrowers’ rates is not established by the available studies.

Does buying a stablecoin take money out of banks?

Not necessarily. “Money leaving a bank” can mean either that a particular bank loses a deposit, or that commercial-bank deposits across the system decline. Those are different outcomes. When a buyer pays for a stablecoin, the deposit changes hands; whether the banking system as a whole loses a deposit depends on what the issuer does with the proceeds and where subsequent payments settle.

If the issuer holds bank deposits

The buyer’s deposit is debited and the issuer’s reserve account is credited. The bank deposit has changed owner, not vanished. Jessie Jiaxu Wang, a Federal Reserve Board economist, notes that reserve management “should critically influence the net effect on bank deposits.” The important questions include which bank holds the issuer’s balance and how readily it may be withdrawn.

If the issuer buys Treasury bills

The issuer pays for bills and the seller receives the proceeds, typically as a bank deposit. That transaction can move deposits between banks or account holders rather than erase them. The eventual systemwide result depends on where proceeds go next. Some payments can settle outside commercial-bank deposits—for example, into the Treasury General Account—but government spending can later return funds to the private sector.

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Stablecoin reserves can include bank deposits, Treasury bills, repurchase agreements, money-market fund shares, or other assets. These choices do not have identical effects on bank deposits or liquidity. In its May 2026 Financial Stability Report, the Federal Reserve said stablecoin assets had grown 16% from July 2025 through the end of that year and stood at about $320 billion at the time of the report. That is a dated figure, not a current October 2026 market total.

Why can deposit composition matter if the dollars stay in the system?

A bank does not treat every dollar of funding as equally reliable or equally costly. Many small retail deposits may be relatively diversified; a large balance from one issuer can be concentrated and sensitive to redemptions, payments, or a change in where the issuer keeps reserves. A shift toward such balances can affect a bank’s funding risk even if the aggregate amount of deposits is little changed.

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To retain or replace funding, a bank may need to offer more competitive rates, seek other funding, or hold additional liquid assets. Holding more liquidity can leave less room for other assets, including loans, given the bank’s capital, liquidity, and regulatory constraints. These responses can raise the bank’s funding expense or constrain the supply of credit. They do not, by themselves, establish how much a borrower’s interest rate will rise: that also depends on competition, demand, and the bank’s other costs and choices.

What has been observed at banks serving stablecoin issuers?

A February 2026 preliminary staff report by Michael Junho Lee and Donny Tou at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York examines banks that partnered with stablecoin issuers. The authors connect issuer primary-market activity—issuance and redemption—to wholesale interbank payments and report increased payment activity and reserve volatility at partner banks. Their results point to a payment-liquidity channel: a bank may benefit from issuer deposits yet keep more reserves available for fast or correlated flows.

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  • Partner banks’ interbank payment activity increased 67% in the nine months after new issuer partnerships, according to the study’s estimate for treated banks.
  • A one-standard-deviation increase in primary-market activity corresponded to about $280 million in additional Fedwire payment activity at the average treated bank relative to controls.
  • Partner banks retained roughly $1.5 billion in additional reserve balances in the subsequent period.
  • Their loan share was 14 percentage points lower relative to the control group. This is a relative change in loan share at the studied banks, not a 14% drop in total U.S. lending.

Lee and Tou write that “partner banks’ loan share of assets contracts relative to peers.” The report is preliminary and concerns identified partner banks; it does not establish that every issuer, bank, or stablecoin transaction has the same effect, nor does it quantify an economy-wide change in borrower loan rates.

Why do other estimates show smaller or different lending effects?

The studies address different questions and rely on different assumptions. Partner-bank evidence about payment flows is not the same as a model of what happens if a policy changes the return stablecoin holders can receive, or a portfolio calculation about where a marginal dollar is invested.

Source and question Finding How to read it
New York Fed Staff Report 1185, February 2026: What happened at banks after issuer partnerships and related activity? Higher interbank payment activity and reserves, alongside a lower loan share relative to controls. Preliminary, partner-bank evidence; not a systemwide lending or loan-rate estimate.
Council of Economic Advisers, September 2026: What might a yield prohibition do in a modeled $300 billion stablecoin market? The model shifts $54 billion from stablecoins to traditional bank deposits and estimates about $2.1 billion more lending, or 0.02%. It estimates a household cost of about $800 million per year, net of the modeled lending gain. Scenario outputs, not realized results. They depend on the model’s assumptions and describe a particular policy change, not the effect of every stablecoin purchase.
Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, 2025: How could a marginal reallocation to stablecoins affect asset demand? Under its assumed current bank and issuer asset mixes, each additional $1 in stablecoins corresponds to about $0.50 less lending and $0.30 more Treasury holdings. An illustrative portfolio-accounting calculation, not an observed universal multiplier or a causal estimate of loan pricing; funding sources and sellers’ behavior can change the result.

The CEA summarizes its accounting point this way: “The household’s deposit is not destroyed.” That does not mean lending is unaffected: the deposit’s owner, location, stability, and use as bank funding can still change. Nor does a modeled increase in lending after a yield prohibition prove that every stablecoin dollar otherwise displaces a loan.

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What determines whether lending gets more expensive?

  • Reserve mix: whether issuers hold bank deposits, Treasury bills, or other reserve assets changes where funds are held and how they reach the banking system.
  • Settlement destination: proceeds paid to sellers may return to commercial-bank accounts, move to another bank, or temporarily settle elsewhere.
  • Concentration and redemption behavior: a large balance that can move quickly may prompt a bank to price funding differently or maintain more liquidity than a diversified base of smaller accounts.
  • Bank constraints: capital, liquidity rules, other funding sources, and the availability of reserves affect whether a funding change reduces loans, changes asset holdings, or is absorbed another way.
  • What buyers would otherwise hold: stablecoin purchases can replace deposits, securities, or other financial assets. The starting point affects both bank credit and demand for Treasury securities.
  • Scale: an effect at partner banks is not automatically an aggregate effect. The size and distribution of adoption matter.

The GENIUS Act was signed in July 2025 and established a federal framework for payment stablecoins. The CEA’s September 2026 analysis focuses on the policy question of yield prohibition, including debate over arrangements involving affiliates or third parties. That policy scenario should not be confused with a direct measurement of how stablecoin growth has changed lending.

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What can be concluded about stablecoins and bank lending?

Stablecoins do not mechanically destroy bank deposits: reserve assets and transaction settlement determine whether a dollar leaves commercial-bank accounts, and often it merely moves. But unchanged aggregate deposits do not rule out effects on banks. Concentrated issuer balances, rapid payment demands, and the liquidity banks hold against them can change funding costs or the balance between reserves and loans. The New York Fed’s partner-bank findings document one such channel; the CEA and Kansas City Fed analyses show how different assumptions produce different lending estimates. The evidence does not support one universal figure for the effect on total lending or borrower rates.

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