Brazil’s official 2026/27 soybean forecast is 181.64 million tonnes, with planted area expected to expand but average yield to edge down. Weather is a risk, not a confirmed cause of crop losses: September rain supported sowing in some areas, while other regions remained too dry, and seasonal rainfall outlooks vary across South America.
What the current forecasts say
The estimates below come from different agencies, issue dates and crop-year conventions. They are forecasts, not final harvest results, and should not be added together as though they formed a single official South American total.
| Country or region | Season and source | Production and area | What the estimate says about yield or weather |
|---|---|---|---|
| Brazil | 2026/27; CONAB estimate published September 15, 2026, updated October 2, 2026 | 181.64 million tonnes of production; 49.3 million hectares of area, up 1.4% year over year | CONAB expects moderate production growth and a slight decline in average yield. It cites the high 2025/26 comparison base as well as climate risks for the next cycle. |
| Paraguay | MY 2026/27; USDA Foreign Agricultural Service report published April 2026 | 11.1 million metric tons of production; 3.5 million hectares planted | The forecast is down from the previous year’s record as yields normalize. The report does not attribute the decline to current weather. |
| Argentina | October 2026 outlooks and official AgroMet index | A comparable official production forecast is not stated in the reviewed sources. | GEOGLAM’s outlook indicates above-average October–December precipitation and below-average temperatures across much of the main agricultural region. Argentina’s AgroMet index lists a weekly bulletin dated October 7, 2026. |
| South America | Current regional total | A comparable regional production total is not stated in the reviewed sources. | Country estimates from different sources and vintages do not provide a consistent basis for a regional sum. |
What has happened so far in Brazil
CONAB’s crop monitoring covers September 1–21, 2026, and describes observed conditions rather than a seasonal prediction. Rain favored early sowing and development of the 2026/27 first crop where the sanitary planting interval had ended.
- Above-normal rainfall occurred in parts of Mato Grosso do Sul, São Paulo, southern Minas Gerais, Paraná, Santa Catarina and northern Rio Grande do Sul.
- Early soybean planting had begun in Mato Grosso do Sul; soil moisture favored sowing in parts of Paraná.
- In Matopiba, rain reduced fire risk but was not enough to restore soil water or enable sowing in most rain-fed areas. Minas Gerais and the northeastern semi-arid regions received almost no rain during the monitoring period.
These observations show why a national outlook can conceal local differences: rainfall helped some planting areas but did not resolve dryness everywhere.
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How the seasonal weather outlook varies by region
GEOGLAM’s October 2026 outlook is probabilistic and covers October–December. It points to likely above-average precipitation in southern and southeastern Brazil, eastern Paraguay, and southern and western Argentina. Likely below-average precipitation is indicated for northern Brazil, Bolivia and several northern parts of the continent.
Temperatures are forecast to be above average across much of South America, with exceptions including Paraguay, Argentina, Uruguay and southern Brazil. This is not a continent-wide forecast of drought or excessive rain: both rainfall and temperature tendencies differ by location.
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GEOGLAM’s October Crop Monitor for AMIS also says Brazilian soybean sowing is beginning. It reports above-average October–December precipitation and below-average temperatures in much of Argentina’s main agricultural region. Its crop-condition monitoring draws on national and regional analyst inputs and Earth-observation data, with conditions reported as of September 28.
Independent reader supportYour contribution helps us test, update, and keep practical guides available for everyone.Why a lower yield forecast does not mean weather losses have already occurred
CONAB’s slight expected yield reduction has two stated explanations: the high yield comparison base from 2025/26 and climate risks associated with the coming cycle. The forecast therefore does not establish that weather damage has already reduced the crop. It also does not isolate how much of the expected change is attributable to weather.
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September monitoring records conditions during a defined period; seasonal outlooks describe probabilities for a future period. A wetter-than-average probability is not a guarantee of useful rain, and a drier tendency is not proof of crop loss. Planting progress and crop outcomes depend on where and when rainfall occurs, as well as subsequent conditions.
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How to read the outlook as the season develops
- Keep country estimates separate. Brazil’s CONAB estimate and Paraguay’s USDA FAS forecast have different sources and report dates; the reviewed sources do not provide a comparable regional total.
- Check the measure. Production, planted area and yield describe different parts of the outlook. Brazil’s area is expected to expand even as average yield is expected to edge down.
- Separate observations from probabilities. CONAB’s September account describes conditions already observed; GEOGLAM’s October–December outlook is a seasonal forecast.
- Track the location and period. A rainfall or temperature tendency for one region and forecast window should not be applied to all South American production areas or to the full growing season.
- Wait for updated crop information before treating risk as a result. The current weather outlooks identify possible pressure points, not final production outcomes.
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