Social Security is not projected to stop paying benefits on a single “run out of money” date. In its 2026 intermediate projections, the Board of Trustees estimates that the retirement and survivor trust fund can pay full scheduled benefits through the fourth quarter of 2032; after its reserves are depleted, continuing income would cover 78% of scheduled benefits. A separate combined-fund projection reaches depletion in the third quarter of 2034, but assumes a change in law allowing transfers between funds that are legally separate today.
What does “Social Security running out of money” actually mean?
It refers to projected depletion of trust fund reserves, not the disappearance of all Social Security income. Payroll taxes and other income would continue to flow into the program. The Trustees estimate that this continuing income would be enough to pay only part of scheduled benefits if reserves were depleted and Congress had not changed the law.
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That distinction matters: scheduled benefits are the amounts payable under the benefit formula, while payable benefits are what the program could pay from available income and reserves under current law. The 2026 Trustees’ report projects a gap between those amounts after reserve depletion; it does not say that benefits automatically become zero. See the 2026 Trustees’ summary.
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When are Social Security trust fund reserves projected to be depleted?
The date depends on which trust fund projection is being discussed. The Old-Age and Survivors Insurance (OASI) fund pays retirement and survivor benefits. The Disability Insurance (DI) fund pays disability benefits. The Trustees report separate projections as well as a combined OASDI projection.
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| Projection | Projected reserve depletion | Share of scheduled benefits payable from continuing income at depletion | Important qualification |
|---|---|---|---|
| OASI, retirement and survivors | Fourth quarter of 2032 | 78% | Based on the Trustees’ 2026 intermediate assumptions; this is the OASI fund’s projection. |
| Combined OASDI, retirement, survivors, and disability | Third quarter of 2034 | 83% | Assumes a change in law permitting transfers between OASI and DI, which are legally separate funds. |
These are projections, not guaranteed dates or observed outcomes. The Trustees use current law and intermediate demographic, economic, and program assumptions; actual experience may differ. The combined projection is useful for understanding Social Security finances as a whole, but it is not the same as the current legal arrangement for the funds. SSA describes the trust funds and their separation in its Trust Fund FAQ.
Will Social Security benefits be cut?
The Trustees’ 2026 projection says that if OASI reserves are depleted in the fourth quarter of 2032 and the law remains unchanged, continuing income would cover 78% of scheduled OASI benefits at that point. In the combined OASDI projection, continuing income would cover 83% of scheduled benefits when reserves are depleted in the third quarter of 2034. The combined projection then estimates that continuing income would cover 65% of scheduled cost by 2100.
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Those percentages describe system-wide projected financing under the stated assumptions. They do not establish the amount any particular person would receive, and they are not a forecast of a specific across-the-board benefit cut enacted by Congress. Actual changes to benefits or revenue would depend on future legislation.
What does the 4.42% actuarial deficit mean?
The 2026 Trustees’ summary reports a combined OASDI 75-year actuarial deficit of 4.42% of taxable payroll over 2026–2100. This is a long-range measure comparing projected income and costs across the period. It is not a prediction that an individual’s monthly check will be reduced by 4.42%, nor is it the same as the share of scheduled benefits payable after reserve depletion. The Trustees also project costs to exceed total income throughout the remainder of the 75-year projection period.
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What could lawmakers do about the shortfall?
The Trustees identify broad categories of policy choices, without endorsing one particular solution. Lawmakers could change program revenue, scheduled benefits, or both.
- Increase revenue from workers and employers: for example, by changing the payroll tax rate or the maximum amount of earnings subject to the tax.
- Dedicate other revenue: direct revenue from another source to Social Security.
- Change benefits: adjust benefit rules in ways that lower benefits for some or all beneficiaries.
- Combine approaches: use revenue changes and benefit changes together.
To assess a specific proposal, look at who would pay more or receive less, which income groups or birth cohorts would be affected, when the change would begin and how it would be phased in, and how much of the projected shortfall it would address. The Trustees’ summary establishes the broad option categories, not a proposal-by-proposal distributional comparison.
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How Social Security trust funds work
OASI and DI are separate trust funds. Their reserves are managed by the Treasury and invested in special-issue U.S. government securities. By law, trust fund money may be spent only on authorized benefits and administrative costs. Because the funds are legally separate, transferring reserves between them would require a change in law; the combined OASDI projection therefore includes an assumption that is not part of the current legal structure.
How current are these estimates?
The dates and percentages here come from the Board of Trustees’ 2026 annual report and reflect its assumptions for that report. Trust fund projections can change as economic, demographic, and program experience changes, and they are updated in later annual reports. For the latest estimate, check the Social Security Trustees’ summary.
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