The Social Security Administration had not announced a 2027 cost-of-living adjustment (COLA) as of October 11, 2026. The next key date is October 14, when the Bureau of Labor Statistics is scheduled to publish September’s inflation data—the final month used in the COLA calculation. That CPI release is not itself the SSA’s announcement.
What is happening on October 14?
The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) has scheduled its September 2026 Consumer Price Index report for October 14 at 8:30 a.m. Eastern. The report supplies the last monthly figure needed to calculate the 2027 adjustment. It does not establish the COLA by itself, and the scheduled release time is not an announced time for an SSA decision.
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The change readers are waiting for is the annual 2027 COLA, not a separately enacted across-the-board retirement-benefit law. As of October 11, the official 2027 percentage remained pending. The BLS October 2026 release calendar lists the CPI publication date and time.
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How Social Security calculates the COLA
The SSA bases the COLA on the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers (CPI-W). It compares the average CPI-W for July, August and September—the third quarter—with the third-quarter average from the last year in which a COLA was determined. BLS publishes the CPI-W, and September’s report completes the three-month set of figures.
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The SSA’s COLA information page explains the adjustment and provides official updates. A forecast made before all the required data are available is an estimate, not the agency’s final figure.
What figures are known—and what is still an estimate?
| Figure | What it means |
|---|---|
| 2.8% | The SSA’s 2026 COLA, which began with benefits payable in January 2026. It is historical context, not a forecast or determination for 2027. |
| 3.5% | An estimate attributed to The Senior Citizens League and reported by AMAC on September 25, 2026. It is a third-party projection, not an SSA figure. |
| 2027 COLA | No official percentage had been announced as of October 11, 2026. |
Forecasts can change as new inflation data arrive. Treat any number published before the SSA confirms the 2027 adjustment as a projection, and check who produced it and when. The AMAC COLA tracker reports the estimate above; it should not be confused with an official SSA determination.
How much could your Social Security check increase?
No official 2027 dollar increase can be calculated until the SSA announces the percentage. Once known, the gross increase depends on the benefit amount to which the COLA applies. The amount deposited can also differ because deductions—including Medicare premiums when applicable—affect net payments. The information available as of October 11 did not establish an official 2027 Medicare Part B premium.
For an individual’s confirmed benefit amount and notices, use the SSA’s my Social Security account and the agency’s official COLA information. Do not treat a general estimate or an arithmetic example as a personal payment notice.
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When will the 2027 percentage and benefit details be confirmed?
The October 14 CPI report provides the final inflation input, but it is a separate release from the SSA’s COLA determination. The percentage and benefit-specific information should be treated as unconfirmed until the SSA publishes them. The 2026 adjustment began with benefits payable in January 2026; do not assume a projected 2027 figure is official or use it to infer a personal notice date.
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