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1Repair Windows errors before they cause bigger problems2Fix the driver behind crashes, sound loss and screen glitches3Clear out junk files and repair common Windows errorsSocial Security is not projected to stop collecting money when its reserves run out. The 2026 Trustees Report projects that the combined trust fund reserves will be depleted in 2034, when continuing income would cover 83% of scheduled benefits. Deciding who should bear the cost of closing the gap—workers, employers, higher earners, beneficiaries, or future generations—is a political choice, not an actuarial verdict.
What does “running out of money” mean for Social Security?
It means the program’s trust fund reserves are projected to be exhausted, not that Social Security will have no income. Payroll taxes and other continuing income would still come in. Under the Trustees’ 2026 intermediate projections, the combined Old-Age and Survivors Insurance and Disability Insurance (OASI and DI) reserves are projected to deplete in 2034. At that point, continuing income would cover 83% of scheduled benefits. The Social Security Administration’s 2026 projection release reports these estimates.
The retirement and survivors fund, OASI, has a separate projection: its reserves are projected to deplete in the fourth quarter of 2032, with continuing income covering 78% of scheduled OASI benefits. That is not the same fund measure or depletion year as the combined OASI-and-DI projection.
These are projections under the Trustees’ assumptions, not a guarantee of what Congress will do or what future program finances will be. They also do not mean that benefits automatically disappear at depletion. Without a change in law, however, continuing income would not be enough to pay all scheduled benefits under these projections.
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How large is the long-term financing gap?
The Trustees project program costs to exceed income throughout the 75-year projection period. Their 2026 estimate puts the actuarial deficit at 4.42% of taxable payroll for 2026–2100. This is a long-range actuarial measure of the gap; it is not a literal flat tax increase that would, by itself, describe the annual adjustment needed in every year. The 2026 OASDI Trustees Report conclusion discusses the estimate and the range of possible policy responses.
Who could pay more—or receive less?
There is no actuarial answer to who ought to bear the adjustment. Lawmakers can address the shortfall through higher revenue, lower or slower-growing benefits, or a combination. The choice distributes costs among workers, employers, higher earners, beneficiaries, and people who will retire in the future.
| Approach | Who bears the direct adjustment? | What to examine |
|---|---|---|
| Raise the payroll-tax rate | Workers, employers, or both, depending on how the rate change is structured. | How large the increase is, when it begins, whether it is phased in, and how the cost is divided between employees and employers. |
| Apply payroll taxes to more earnings | People with earnings newly brought into the taxable range, with the precise effect depending on the design. | Which earnings are covered, when the change takes effect, and how much of the financing gap the proposal is estimated to close. |
| Reduce benefits or slow their growth | Beneficiaries or future retirees affected by the chosen benefit formula or adjustment. | Which cohorts or groups are affected, how large the change is, and whether it applies to current beneficiaries, future beneficiaries, or both. |
| Combine revenue and benefit changes | Taxpayers and beneficiaries share the adjustment in proportions set by the package. | The contribution of each measure, the timing of each change, and the remaining shortfall after the measures are combined. |
These categories describe policy mechanisms, not enacted law or endorsements. The Social Security Administration’s Policy Option Projections presents modeled effects for individual options. Its payroll-tax solvency provisions page models rate changes and changes to the amount of earnings subject to tax. The Government Accountability Office’s overview of reform options groups possible responses into reducing or slowing benefit growth, increasing payroll-tax revenue, or combining approaches.
How to judge a proposal fairly
A proposal’s label—such as “tax increase” or “benefit reform”—does not establish how much of the financing gap it closes or who ultimately bears its costs. For each option or package, ask:
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- Who receives less or slower benefit growth? Look for which beneficiaries or future retirees are affected rather than assuming all groups are treated alike.
- When does it take effect? A gradual phase-in distributes the adjustment differently across cohorts and years than an immediate change.
- How much of the shortfall does it address? Use the estimate for the specific modeled option and its assumptions; do not infer solvency from the proposal’s name.
- What trade-off does it make? A revenue-first plan asks for higher contributions; a benefit-focused plan changes scheduled benefits or their future growth; a mixed plan divides the adjustment.
So, who should pay to fix Social Security?
The Trustees’ numbers define the financing problem, but they do not choose its fair solution. A person who prioritizes protecting scheduled benefits may favor raising more revenue; someone who prioritizes limiting tax increases may favor benefit changes; a combined package can divide the burden. The meaningful comparison is the specific distribution of costs, the timing of the changes, and how much of the projected gap each package closes. As the Trustees put it, “Lawmakers have a wide continuum of policy options that would close or reduce Social Security’s long-term financing shortfall.”
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