In 2024, Texas was worth investigating as an investment market, but it was not a blanket buy. The state had large, fast-growing metros, strong demand, and a shortage of lower-priced housing. The same reporting also showed prices that had already risen sharply, weak affordability, high borrowing costs, rising insurance premiums, and property taxes set locally. No source behind this article establishes guaranteed appreciation, positive cash flow, or a statewide deal that beats other states. Any Texas purchase had to be underwritten property by property and metro by metro.
What the 2024 case for Texas rested on
The argument for Texas was about scale and demand. In its January 2024 forecast, the Texas A&M Real Estate Research Center said the Dallas-Fort Worth, Houston, Austin, and San Antonio metros had outranked every U.S. real estate market in 2023. That is a description of 2023 conditions. It is not a forecast of returns for 2024 or later, and the Center did not rank these metros by investor returns.
Investors paying attention to those four metros were responding to population and housing demand that was large and sustained. Demand alone, however, does not tell you what a specific rental will earn or whether its value will hold up. The rest of the 2024 reporting is about why that distinction mattered.
Prices had already risen before 2024
By the time the 2024 reporting appeared, much of the price growth had already happened. The figures below come from the Texas Comptroller’s 2024 Fiscal Notes reporting and its summary of Texas A&M Real Estate Research Center data. They describe past periods, not current prices.
#1 Best Overall
| Measure | Figure | Period | Source as reported |
|---|---|---|---|
| Texas median home price | About 40% increase | 2019 to 2023 | Texas Comptroller, 2024 summary of Texas A&M Real Estate Research Center data |
| Statewide Texas home prices | 1.5% decrease | 2023 | Texas Comptroller Fiscal Notes, 2024 |
| Austin metro home prices | 43% increase | 2019 to 2023 | Texas Comptroller Fiscal Notes, 2024 |
| Austin metro home prices | More than 10% decrease | 2023 | Texas Comptroller Fiscal Notes, 2024 |
The Austin figures show why a single metro cannot be treated as a proxy for the state. Prices there rose 43 percent from 2019 to 2023 and then fell by more than 10 percent during 2023 alone. An investor who bought near the peak faced a very different exit than one who bought after the correction, and the statewide 1.5 percent decline in 2023 hides that spread.
Affordability was the counterweight
Strong demand and tight supply of cheaper homes pointed in the same direction, and the reporting treated affordability as the main constraint. In October 2024, the Texas Comptroller’s Fiscal Notes article drew on the following figures:
Rank #2
- Cost burden: About 34 percent of Texas households were cost-burdened in 2022, including more than half of renters. These are U.S. Census Bureau 2022 American Community Survey figures (Table S2503), analyzed by the Comptroller.
- Affordable and available homes: Texas had 25 affordable and available rental homes per 100 extremely low-income households, a figure from the National Low Income Housing Coalition as reported by the Comptroller.
- Low-cost rentals: Available rental units costing below $1,000 per month, adjusted for inflation, fell 29 percent from 2012 to 2022. This is a Comptroller analysis of Harvard Joint Center for Housing Studies tabulations of Census data.
For an investor, these numbers cut both ways. A shortage of lower-priced rentals can support demand for well-located, modestly priced units. But the same figures describe households that may struggle to pay rent, which raises questions about tenant ability to pay, turnover, and how much rent increases can be pushed. Statewide statistics cannot tell you which side of that picture applies to a given address.
Glenn Hegar, Texas Comptroller of Public Accounts, put the tension this way in the October 2024 article: “Simply put, our state, which is generally well regarded for its low cost of living, is facing the pressure of a decline in housing affordability as our population and demand for housing continue to rise.”
The costs that challenged deal math
Mortgage rates
The Comptroller’s August 27, 2024 release reported that mortgage rates reached 7.79 percent in October 2023, a 23-year high. A purchase financed near that peak carries a materially different monthly payment than one financed at lower rates, and it changes which rents a property must achieve to cover its costs. Treat 7.79 percent as a historical peak. It is not a current rate, and the 2024 sources do not establish today’s financing costs.
Homeowners’ insurance
The same release reported that average homeowners’ insurance rates in Texas rose 6.9 percent in 2021 and 11.8 percent in 2022. These are statewide averages for past years. They are context for why insurance belongs in the underwriting, not a quote for any property. Insurance for a specific building depends on its age, construction, location, and coverage, and it has to be requested for that property.
Property taxes
Texas does not levy a statewide property tax, but that does not make property tax-free. The Comptroller explains that local jurisdictions set and collect property taxes and generally tax property based on its current market value. Your tax bill depends on the taxing units that serve the address, their rates, and the appraised value. Using a single statewide rate will understate or overstate the bill for many properties. Pull the actual tax history and appraisal for each candidate property before building an estimate.
Risk depends on how you invest
The Texas State Securities Board lists several potential risks that vary with the investment structure: illiquidity, interest-rate changes, property valuation, demographics, and rental rates. Owning a rental directly, holding a share of a pooled vehicle, and lending against property each expose you to these factors differently. Illiquidity deserves particular attention for a direct purchase. Selling a house takes time and cost, and that matters if rates, valuations, or local demand move against you.
Quick wins for a faster PC:
Fix the driver behind crashes, sound loss and screen glitchesFind Drivers →Repair Windows errors before they cause bigger problemsFix Now →Scan for outdated or missing drivers - takes under a minuteDriver Scan →Best Value
How to underwrite a Texas property
The 2024 sources identify the metros that mattered but do not rank them for investors or supply comparable current rents. A usable analysis has to come from inputs you gather for each property. The table below lists what to check and what the 2024 evidence cannot supply.
| Input | What to establish for the property | What the 2024 sources do not supply |
|---|---|---|
| Purchase price and financing | Actual price, loan terms, and the rate available at the time of purchase | Current rates. The 7.79 percent figure is an October 2023 peak. |
| Rent and vacancy | Achievable rent for the specific unit and neighborhood, with vacancy assumptions tested against operating costs | Current comparable rents for each metro |
| Property tax | Taxing units, current appraisal, and the actual tax bill | Current local tax rates for any address |
| Insurance and condition | A property-specific insurance quote and an estimate of repair and maintenance costs | Current quotes. The 6.9 and 11.8 percent increases are past statewide averages. |
| Supply and tenant demand | The housing segment and neighborhood the property serves | Demand or returns at a particular address. Statewide affordability figures do not establish them. |
| Liquidity and downside | How rates, valuations, demographics, and rents could affect returns or your exit | Probabilities or timing for any of these factors |
What the 2024 case does and does not show
The evidence explains why investors paid attention to Texas in 2024: prominent metros, sustained demand, and a shortage of lower-priced housing. It equally supports caution. Prices had risen sharply, affordability had weakened, borrowing costs were high, insurance premiums were climbing, and local property taxes had to be modeled property by property. The sources do not show that Texas outperformed other states on realized returns, do not identify a best city for investors, and do not validate an investment thesis for 2026.
How current these figures are
Most figures here describe 2012 to 2023 data or reporting published in 2024. Current 2026 prices, rents, property-tax rates, insurance quotes, and financing costs are not established by these sources. Use the figures as historical context, and check current conditions for any specific purchase before relying on them.
The 2024 Texas thesis was a reason to investigate, and the numbers reviewed here show why that investigation had to be specific: to a property, its taxing units, its insurance, its rent, and its financing.
Windows Errors? Fix Them Before They Spread
Repair common Windows errors and clear accumulated junk for a smoother, more stable PC - no reinstall needed.Free scan · no reinstallCrashes, No Sound, or Screen Glitches?
Random freezes, missing sound and display glitches usually trace back to one bad driver. Find and replace yours safely.Free scan · under a minuteQuick Recap
“
Product prices and availability are accurate as of the date/time indicated and are subject to change. Any price and availability information displayed on Amazon at the time of purchase will apply.
