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Downtown Seattle drew more than 15 million unique visitors in 2025, and violent-crime incidents fell in the defined downtown core. Yet the commercial recovery remains uneven: the Downtown Seattle Association (DSA) estimated a 13,000-job loss during 2025, office vacancy stayed high, and brick-and-mortar retail employment remained below its 2010 level. The indicators measure different things, however, so rising foot traffic is not proof that downtown businesses or property values have recovered.
What do the latest numbers say about downtown’s economy?
The DSA’s 2026 State of Downtown report estimates 317,579 jobs and 109,845 residents in downtown Seattle in 2025. The job estimate is based on first-quarter data; separately, the report estimates downtown lost 13,000 jobs over 2025, its largest annual decline since the first pandemic year. These figures are not contradictory: one is an estimate of the job base at a point in the year, while the other describes the change during the year. The DSA also says unavailable 2013 data in its series were interpolated.
The longer view is less bleak than the latest annual change: the DSA’s 2025 estimate is 45% above its 2010 job baseline. But that historical increase does not erase the recent loss, nor does an aggregate jobs count show which kinds of businesses are gaining or losing ground.
Retail jobs have not followed visitor-facing sectors upward
| Measure | 2025 estimate | Change from 2010 | What it captures |
|---|---|---|---|
| Brick-and-mortar retail employment | 7,575 jobs | 14% lower | Retail jobs in physical storefronts |
| Dining, hotel, recreation, arts and entertainment employment | 33,608 jobs | 23% higher | A combined group of visitor- and experience-related sectors |
Both estimates are from the DSA’s 2026 report. The categories are not interchangeable: growth in the combined dining, hotel, recreation, arts and entertainment group does not establish that storefront retail is thriving, and neither employment measure directly counts sales or business profitability.
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Why do more visitors not necessarily mean a stronger commercial recovery?
Placer.ai data cited by the DSA show more than 15 million unique visitors downtown in 2025, above the pre-pandemic level for a second consecutive year. Total visits increased by 3 million from 2024, indicating that visits became more frequent as well as reaching a large number of distinct people. Local visitors—defined in the report as people living within 10 miles of downtown—made more than 8.3 million visits to Pike/Pine, up 11% year over year. Local waterfront foot traffic also rose 11%, reaching 97% of its 2019 level. The DSA identifies conventions, Pride, major concerts and sports, and the waterfront among the attractions.
Those are measures of activity, not receipts. More visits can support restaurants, hotels and event businesses, but the counts do not show how much visitors spent, whether spending went to local storefronts, or whether businesses earned a profit. In 2025, average daily worker foot traffic was nearly 145,000, about 4% above 2024 but still only 64% of its 2019 level. Visitors and workers are distinct parts of downtown’s activity; strong visitor numbers have not restored the pre-pandemic worker presence.
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Tourism-related measures also differ by source and period. The annual report says hotel demand softened year over year in 2025 for the first time since 2019. It reports 25% fewer travelers entering Washington from Canada at Blaine than in 2024, while international passengers at Sea-Tac rose 8% to more than 7.1 million. The Port of Seattle forecast nearly 2.1 million cruise passengers for 2026; that is a forecast, not a realized passenger count.
What does the newer August 2026 snapshot add?
The DSA’s September 2026 dashboard, using August data, points to a continued split between visitors and workers. Placer.ai counted nearly 3.8 million unique monthly visitors, equivalent to 112% of August 2019, while worker foot traffic was 62% of its August 2019 daily average. The dashboard describes August 2026 as downtown’s most heavily visited month since July 2019.
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Visit Seattle and STR data cited in that dashboard show nearly 429,000 hotel rooms sold in August 2026: 106% of August 2019 and 3% above August 2025. These are monthly comparisons, not full-year 2026 results, and should not be combined with the annual 2025 estimates as if they shared the same time frame or measure.
How stressed is the downtown office market?
CoStar figures cited by the DSA put 2025 office vacancy at 25% across downtown and above 32% in the central business district (CBD). The CBD is a narrower geography than downtown as a whole. The DSA says CBD vacancy in 2025 was almost twice its 2009 Great Recession high.
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Vacancy is a share of space reported as unoccupied; net absorption measures the change in occupied space. The DSA estimates about 9.5 million square feet of negative net absorption from 2020 onward. Absorption remained negative in 2025, although that year’s loss was the smallest since 2020. A smaller annual loss is an improvement in direction, not evidence that the market has returned to positive absorption.
What do downtown property values mean for the tax base?
King County Assessor figures cited in the DSA report show the combined taxable value of the 20 highest-valued downtown properties fell from more than $10.7 billion in 2021 to about $5.1 billion in 2026, a 53% decline. For that same 20-property sample, the DSA estimates annual property-tax assessments fell from more than $100 million to around $50 million.
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This is a selected group of the 20 highest-valued properties, not a measure of every downtown parcel or the full city tax base. It does, however, illustrate why office-market weakness can matter beyond landlords: lower assessed values in a large-property sample are associated with a smaller assessment base for property taxes. The reported figures do not by themselves establish the precise effect on any individual tax bill or public-service budget.
Independent reader supportYour contribution helps us test, update, and keep practical guides available for everyone.Where has public safety improved, and where have incidents risen?
Seattle Police Department Crime Dashboard figures cited by the DSA show different patterns across downtown geographies in 2025. Across downtown, violent-crime incidents were roughly flat year over year and 14% below the pandemic peak of nearly 1,600 in 2021. In the downtown core, defined as SPD beats M1–3, incidents declined 14% from 2024 and 33% from the 2021 peak of 412. Excluding 2020, the core’s 2025 count was its lowest since at least 2017.
That improvement does not describe every neighborhood. Belltown (beat D1) recorded its highest violent-crime incident count since at least 2020, up 24% from 2024. Chinatown–International District (beat K3) declined slightly year over year but remained above 300 incidents. Together, those beats accounted for 35% of downtown’s violent-crime incidents in 2025.
These are reported incidents within police-beat boundaries, not a complete measure of safety or residents’ perceptions. The figures also do not establish that changes in visitor activity caused changes in crime, or vice versa.
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How should readers make sense of the apparent contradiction?
- Foot traffic is not a sales report. Visitor counts establish activity; they do not measure spending, storefront revenue or profitability.
- Geography matters. Downtown-wide figures, the CBD, the downtown core and individual SPD beats describe different places.
- Time periods matter. Annual 2025 estimates, point-in-time job data and the August 2026 dashboard are different types of evidence.
- Different indicators answer different questions. Vacancy measures unused office space, net absorption tracks changes in occupied space, and employment counts jobs. One cannot stand in for the others.
The DSA’s report combines estimates and data from multiple providers, including Placer.ai, CoStar, the Seattle Police Department, King County Assessor, Visit Seattle and STR. It notes that pandemic disruptions and methodology changes affected some 2020 and 2021 comparisons. These qualifications matter when reading a city whose visitor economy, office market, retail employment and neighborhood safety are moving at different speeds.
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