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Rising farm expenses are one reason USDA expects U.S. net farm income to fall in 2026, even though net cash farm income edges up in nominal dollars. The latest USDA Economic Research Service forecast, updated September 3, 2026, puts net farm income at $158.4 billion—down 2.6% from 2025, or 5.5% after inflation adjustment. The outlook is mixed, not uniformly sunny or bleak: expenses are rising, crop receipts and government payments are higher, and animal receipts are lower.
What the 2026 farm income forecast says
USDA’s forecast is for calendar year 2026 compared with 2025; these are projections, not final results. Net farm income (NFI), USDA’s broad measure of farm profits, is forecast at $158.4 billion, a nominal decrease of $4.3 billion, or 2.6%. Adjusted for inflation, the decline is $9.1 billion, or 5.5%. If realized, NFI would remain above its inflation-adjusted 2006–25 average. USDA’s Farm Sector Income Forecast can change as production and price forecasts and other underlying information change.
How much are farm input costs rising?
Total production expenses, including expenses associated with operator dwellings, are forecast at $492.8 billion in 2026. That is $21.2 billion, or 4.5%, higher than in 2025 in nominal dollars. After inflation adjustment, the increase is $7.1 billion, or 1.5%. The nominal rise is larger because it does not remove the effect of inflation.
The increase is concentrated in several categories rather than spread evenly across every input. USDA forecasts lower nominal spending on feed and cash labor.
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| Expense category | 2026 forecast and change from 2025 |
|---|---|
| Livestock and poultry purchases | $71.9 billion; up $7.4 billion (11.4%) |
| Fertilizer, lime, and soil conditioners | Up $5.3 billion (15.3%) |
| Fuel and oils | Up $4.8 billion (28.8%) |
| Feed and cash labor | Forecast lower in nominal dollars |
These are USDA ERS calendar-year 2026 forecasts compared with 2025, not a report of costs already incurred by every farm. Category figures and the total are from the USDA forecast.
Why is farm income falling if cash income is up?
The two figures describe different measures, and “up” applies only to the nominal cash measure. USDA forecasts net cash farm income (NCFI) of $176.4 billion, $0.7 billion or 0.4% above 2025 in nominal dollars. After inflation adjustment, NCFI is forecast to fall by $4.6 billion, or 2.5%.
NCFI is cash receipts plus cash farm-related income, including federal government payments, minus cash expenses. It excludes noncash inventory changes, economic depreciation, and gross imputed rental income from operator dwellings. NFI includes those noncash items, so the two measures can move differently. Neither figure is a direct prediction of the cash available to every individual farm household. See USDA’s explanation of the farm income forecast.
Receipts and government payments offset some expense pressure
USDA forecasts total cash receipts of $540.3 billion, down $1.7 billion, or 0.3%, from 2025. That total masks a split between crops and livestock-related sales:
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| Cash receipt category | 2026 forecast | Change from 2025 |
|---|---|---|
| Crop receipts | $253.0 billion | Up $14.6 billion (6.1%) |
| Animal and animal-product receipts | $287.3 billion | Down $16.4 billion (5.4%) |
| Total cash receipts | $540.3 billion | Down $1.7 billion (0.3%) |
Direct government payments are forecast at $47.4 billion, up $19.5 billion from 2025. ERS attributes most of the increase to commodity payments tied to prices or revenues, along with supplemental and ad hoc disaster assistance. The direct-payment total does not include Federal Crop Insurance Corporation (FCIC) insurance indemnities or USDA loans; ERS treats those as separate items. Details and definitions are in the USDA forecast.
Independent reader supportYour contribution helps us test, update, and keep practical guides available for everyone.Why the national forecast is not every farm’s outlook
A national income estimate is not a forecast for each farm or farm household. USDA reports variation by resource region and commodity specialization, and its average farm-business net cash income measure is distinct from sector-wide NFI. Farm businesses specializing in different commodities can face different income directions, and regional outcomes vary. The USDA Farm Business Income page presents those differences.
For a farm’s own cash-flow planning, the sector forecast is context rather than a substitute for its sales, expenses, debt obligations, and payment timing. USDA notes that the timing of sales and purchases can affect variability in net cash income; its Farm Income and Wealth Statistics FAQs explain the forecast inputs and cash-timing considerations.
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