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The latest available 2026 Illinois crop-budget outlook is the September 1 revision—not the January estimate named in the original title. University of Illinois farmdoc raised its projected crop prices, added expected crop-insurance proceeds, adjusted regional yields for weather risk, and increased fuel and oil costs. The result is a better projected return than in May, but still a regional benchmark rather than a forecast for any one farm.
Which 2026 Illinois crop-budget revision is current?
The estimates changed during 2026, so the date matters when comparing prices or returns. The January 13 article, “Revised Illinois Crop Budgets for 2026”, is useful as historical context, but it is not the latest outlook. farmdoc revised the all-region budgets in May and then adjusted its 2026 projections again on September 1.
| Budget vintage | Projected corn price | Projected soybean price | What it represents |
|---|---|---|---|
| January 13, 2026 | $4.25 per bushel | $10.40 per bushel | January projection; farmdoc described negative average returns on cash-rented corn acres across regions and marginally positive northern and central soybean returns. |
| May 19, 2026 | $4.50 per bushel | $11.50 per bushel | Spring revision for all regions; the budgets also used $6.60 per bushel for wheat. |
| September 1, 2026 | $4.95 per bushel | $12.20 per bushel | Latest 2026 assumptions in the September update, based on recent futures and Illinois harvest cash bids. |
The May regional tables and cost breakdown are available in farmdoc’s 2026 Crop Budgets PDF. Treat those line items as the May vintage, not as a detailed cost table for September. The September article, “Illinois Crop Budgets for 2027”, also explains its adjustments to the 2026 projections. These are estimates for the 2026 crop year, not final realized results.
What changed in the September 2026 projections?
farmdoc raised the corn budget price from $4.50 to $4.95 per bushel and the soybean price from $11.50 to $12.20. The budget price is intended to estimate the average price received over the full marketing period; it can be below fall-delivery bids because some of a crop may have been sold earlier at lower prices. Higher projected crop prices also partly offset expected ARC/PLC payments.
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The update made several other adjustments:
- Crop-insurance proceeds: It added expected proceeds based on anticipated yield-driven claims and harvest prices above spring insurance prices.
- Regional yields: It adjusted yields slightly downward to account for risk from damaging rainfall and high winds.
- Fuel and oil: It increased these projected costs in response to diesel prices. Fuel and oil were the only stated cost-projection category changed in the September update.
Crop-market revenue, government-program payments, and crop-insurance proceeds are distinct assumptions in a budget. They should be examined separately rather than treated as interchangeable sources of income.
What do the September regional return estimates show?
Compared with the May budgets, the September projections improved, but outcomes differ by crop and region. The figures below are September 2026 regional projections for returns on costs including cash rent; they are not guarantees for an individual operation.
| Crop | Northern Illinois | Central Illinois | Southern Illinois |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corn | Approximately $50–$60 per acre | Approximately $50–$60 per acre | Approximately break-even |
| Soybeans | Approximately $90–$116 per acre | Approximately $90–$116 per acre | Approximately $30 per acre |
farmdoc said projected returns remained below longer-run averages and could still move with prices. The regional figures combine assumptions about yields, costs, land, and revenue; a farm with different rent, input expenses, marketing, insurance, or realized yields can land somewhere else.
How the regional budgets are organized
The budgets distinguish northern Illinois, central Illinois high-productivity soils, central Illinois low-productivity soils, and southern Illinois. They cover corn, soybeans, and wheat across regions; double-crop soybeans are included for central and southern Illinois. A sensible comparison starts with the location and soil productivity, then checks the crop and rotation before looking at the dollars.
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The May budget PDF lays out categories including fertilizer, pesticides, seed, drying, storage, crop insurance, machinery, fuel, labor, overhead, non-land costs, land costs, farmer return, and breakeven prices. These categories help explain what a budget includes, but the PDF’s values belong to the May revision. In any vintage, keep program payments and insurance proceeds visible as separate revenue assumptions, and compare like with like when examining returns or breakevens.
How to use a regional budget for a farm decision
A published regional budget is a planning benchmark, not a farm-specific forecast. For a useful estimate, replace the regional assumptions with the operation’s own figures and test how sensitive the result is to uncertain prices and yields.
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- Choose the closest benchmark. Start with the region, soil-productivity class, crop, and rotation that most closely match the acres in question.
- Enter farm-specific assumptions. Adjust expected yield, cash rent or other land costs, seed and fertilizer, other inputs, machinery and fuel costs, labor, and overhead to match the operation.
- Set marketing and revenue assumptions. Use the farm’s expected sales timing and prices. Show crop-market revenue, ARC/PLC payments, and crop-insurance proceeds separately so the contribution of each is clear.
- Check returns and breakevens under alternatives. Vary important assumptions, especially price and yield, rather than relying on one projected return.
- Use a whole-farm view when needed. The farmdoc Farm Projection Tool calculates per-acre and whole-farm budgets and breakevens, supports return sensitivity analysis, and can analyze insurance and hedging.
This approach is particularly important when comparing crop choices or evaluating a cash-rent decision: a positive regional projection does not establish that a particular lease or field will be profitable.
Independent reader supportYour contribution helps us test, update, and keep practical guides available for everyone.Where to find later and historical budgets
farmdoc maintains an Illinois Crop Budgets and Historic Returns archive for budget publications and historical return information. Use the publication date and revision noted with a table when comparing years or versions; prices, costs, and assumptions can change materially between updates.
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