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Outbyte PC Repair FREEClear out junk files and repair common Windows errorsFree Scan →Outbyte Driver Updater FREEScan for outdated or missing drivers - takes under a minuteDriver Scan →Redfin estimated that U.S. sellers outnumbered buyers by 57.9% in August 2026, the largest gap in its records dating to 2013. That gave buyers more choice and potential negotiating leverage, but it did not make homes affordable or mean every seller would accept a lower price. The figures describe August—not necessarily the market today—and local conditions differed sharply.
What Redfin’s record buyer’s-market figure means
Redfin’s September 10, 2026 report estimated 1,534,918 sellers and 972,300 buyers nationally in August. The number of sellers rose 3.9% from July, while the number of buyers increased just 0.1%. The resulting seller surplus was 57.9%, up from 52.1% in July. Redfin called August the strongest buyer’s market in its records, which go back to 2013. Redfin’s September 10 report
Redfin uses a specific threshold for these labels: a market is a buyer’s market when sellers outnumber buyers by more than 10%; it is a seller’s market when sellers are more than 10% fewer than buyers. A gap within 10% in either direction is considered balanced. These are Redfin estimates, not an official census of everyone looking to buy or sell. The buyer estimate draws on Redfin and MLS data; the seller estimate counts active MLS listings, and Redfin says the figures can be revised. Redfin’s Balance of Power data and methodology
Where buyers had the most leverage—and where sellers did
The national figure masks substantial local differences. Of the 49 metropolitan areas in the report, 36 were buyer’s markets. Nashville had the largest seller surplus, at 139% more sellers than buyers, followed by Miami at 138% and Houston at 131%. Eight major metros had at least twice as many sellers as buyers: those three, plus Orlando, Las Vegas, San Antonio, Austin, and Dallas. All ten of the strongest buyer’s markets listed by Redfin were in the Sun Belt.
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Five metros were seller’s markets: Nassau County, Newark, Montgomery County, Milwaukee, and San Francisco. Redfin said San Francisco had been classified as a seller’s market only twice in the previous four years. Fort Lauderdale was excluded from the analysis because of insufficient data, leaving 49 of the 50 most populous metros. Redfin’s August 2026 metro findings
A large seller surplus is one useful signal, not a complete local-market ranking. Compare it with available listings, new listings, pending sales, recent sale prices, financing costs, and how many homes are drawing competing offers. Neighborhoods and individual homes can behave differently from their metro’s label.
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Does a buyer’s market mean prices are falling?
No. The label measures the balance between Redfin’s estimated sellers and buyers; it does not by itself say whether sale prices are rising or falling. In a separate Redfin report, the median U.S. sale price was $398,632 for the four weeks ending August 30, 2026, up 2.2% year over year. Redfin also reported a median monthly mortgage payment of $2,592 for that period. Redfin’s four-week housing-market measures
Borrowing costs remained a major part of affordability. Redfin reported Freddie Mac’s average weekly 30-year fixed mortgage rate at 6.66% for the week ending August 27, 2026. Redfin attributed weak buyer demand in part to high housing costs and economic uncertainty. It also pointed to construction pipelines as one factor supporting inventory in some Sun Belt metros; those are explanations in Redfin’s analysis, not proof that one factor alone caused local conditions.
How buyers can use the added negotiating room
Redfin senior economist Asad Khan said, “With sellers piling into the market and demand falling flat, today’s house hunters can afford to be choosy.” He advised buyers in most markets to negotiate on price and ask for concessions such as repairs or help with closing costs. That is an opportunity to consider, not a guarantee: Redfin cautioned that desirable homes priced well may still attract competition.
- Check the property, not just the market label. Review comparable recent sales, the home’s time on market, its condition, and whether similar listings are competing for buyers.
- Decide what to negotiate. Depending on the property and your priorities, an offer could address price, repairs, or seller-paid closing costs. A concession’s value depends on your financing and the transaction terms.
- Set a firm affordability limit. A lower price or seller concession does not eliminate mortgage payments or other ownership costs. Confirm what fits your budget before making an offer.
- Be ready for exceptions. A well-priced, highly desirable home may still draw strong interest even when the wider metro favors buyers.
Is this still the market right now?
The 57.9% figure is a snapshot of August 2026 conditions, published by Redfin on September 10. Redfin’s press center listed later September releases by October 4, so this August record should not be treated as a description of the newest market conditions. Redfin’s Balance of Power page said its next monthly update was due October 13, 2026. Check current local listings and recent sales before applying the August data to a decision.
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