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South America’s soybean outlook is strong, but the figures are estimates and forecasts from different dates—not a single final harvest tally. Brazil’s statistics agency IBGE estimated a record 174.1 million tonnes of soybeans for 2026, while USDA’s January forecast put Brazil’s 2025/26 exports at 114.0 million metric tons. Argentina’s production outlook also improved for 2025/26, but USDA projected its soybean exports to decline in 2026/27.
How large is Brazil’s record soybean harvest?
IBGE’s April 2026 estimate, released May 14, put Brazil’s soybean production at 174.1 million tonnes—4.8% above the volume reported for 2025 and a new record in the agency’s historical series. It is a statistical estimate, not a final audited tally. IBGE survey manager Carlos Alfredo Guedes said the estimate was 0.2% higher than the agency’s March estimate. IBGE’s announcement gives the agency’s estimate and its month-to-month comparison.
A separate USDA Economic Research Service forecast, published in January 2026, put Brazil’s marketing-year 2025/26 production at 178.0 million metric tons. That forecast is higher than IBGE’s later estimate, but the numbers are not interchangeable: they come from different agencies, dates, and reporting vintages. Treat each as what it is rather than choosing one as a definitive final result. USDA’s January 2026 Oil Crops Outlook also contains its export forecast.
What do the forecasts say about Brazilian exports?
In January 2026, USDA ERS forecast Brazil’s soybean exports at 114.0 million metric tons for MY 2025/26. This is a dated projection, not a confirmed final export total. The cited material does not establish a later Brazilian export forecast, so the production record should not be presented as proof that exports ultimately reached that level.
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Production and export volumes answer different questions. A large crop can support export availability, but the harvest estimate alone does not establish how much will be shipped, when shipments will occur, or what prices and farm returns will be.
Argentina has a different production and export outlook
USDA ERS’s June 2026 outlook revised Argentina’s MY 2025/26 soybean production forecast up to 50.0 million metric tons as harvest neared completion. The same outlook projected exports of 9.0 million metric tons for MY 2025/26, then 6.2 million metric tons for MY 2026/27. USDA attributed part of the higher prior-year sales to a temporary reduction in export taxes. These are marketing-year projections, not a claim that Argentina’s production and exports move in lockstep. See the June 2026 Oil Crops Outlook for the updated estimates.
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| Country and measure | Marketing year or period | Figure | Status and source |
|---|---|---|---|
| Brazil soybean production | 2026 estimate | 174.1 million tonnes | IBGE April estimate, released May 14, 2026; statistical estimate, not final audited tally. |
| Brazil soybean production | MY 2025/26 | 178.0 million metric tons | USDA ERS January 2026 forecast. |
| Brazil soybean exports | MY 2025/26 | 114.0 million metric tons | USDA ERS January 2026 forecast. |
| Argentina soybean production | MY 2025/26 | 50.0 million metric tons | USDA ERS June 2026 revised forecast. |
| Argentina soybean exports | MY 2025/26 | 9.0 million metric tons | USDA ERS June 2026 projection; partly supported by temporary reduction in export taxes, according to USDA. |
| Argentina soybean exports | MY 2026/27 | 6.2 million metric tons | USDA ERS June 2026 projection. |
Does a record harvest mean a global shortage or higher prices?
No such conclusion follows from these figures alone. USDA FAS’s May 2025 global outlook expected record world soybean production and record Brazilian exports in 2025/26, while global stocks were expected to rise slightly. That combination points to substantial expected supply, but it does not by itself determine prices, shortages, or producer profitability. The outlook is also older than the June 2026 Argentina update. Its role is global context, not a current final accounting of South America’s harvest. The USDA FAS 2025/26 oilseeds outlook sets out those expectations.
Independent reader supportYour contribution helps us test, update, and keep practical guides available for everyone.How to read the figures
- Keep the dates attached. IBGE’s 174.1-million-tonne number is an April 2026 estimate; USDA’s Brazil production and export numbers are January 2026 forecasts.
- Keep marketing years attached to USDA trade figures. Brazil’s cited export projection is for MY 2025/26; Argentina’s lower export projection is for MY 2026/27.
- Do not treat production as exports. A crop estimate measures output, while an export projection concerns expected international shipments.
- Use country-level outlooks. Brazil and Argentina have distinct figures and trajectories; these numbers do not support treating all of South America as having one uniform harvest or trade outlook.
USDA ERS describes its monthly Oil Crops Outlook and USDA FAS Oilseeds: World Markets and Trade reports as sources of country-level forecasts and historical data on production, domestic consumption, and international trade. Its Soybeans and Oil Crops: Market Outlook provides the broader reporting context.
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