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The two stocks in Joe Tenebruso’s October 11, 2026, prediction are Amazon.com (NASDAQ: AMZN) and Eli Lilly (NYSE: LLY). The thesis is that Amazon can grow through cloud computing, AI infrastructure and automation, while Lilly can benefit from demand for GLP-1 medicines and its drug pipeline. Those are investment cases, not evidence that either stock will beat the market: future returns will depend on business execution and the price investors pay.
What does the prediction actually claim?
Tenebruso’s article in The Motley Fool names Amazon and Eli Lilly as stocks he expects to outperform the market over the next decade. It does not establish that they will do so, define a precise measurement period, or demonstrate a result against a specified benchmark. A meaningful comparison would need a start and end date, a benchmark such as the S&P 500, and a consistent total-return measure that accounts for dividends. Taxes and fees would also affect an individual investor’s outcome.
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The figures below are reported in that article, rather than independently verified here. Forward-looking estimates and management outlooks are not guarantees, and reported business growth does not automatically translate into strong stock returns.
Why Amazon is one of the picks
AWS and AI infrastructure
The Amazon thesis centers on Amazon Web Services (AWS), which Tenebruso argues could benefit from demand for cloud computing and AI. The Motley Fool article reports that AWS sales grew 37% in the second quarter of 2026, with annualized revenue of $169 billion and operating margins near 40%. These are the article’s reported figures; annualized revenue is not the same as a full-year result.
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The article also attributes to CEO Andy Jassy an outlook that AWS could reach $600 billion in annual sales by 2036, and describes the possibility of AWS becoming a trillion-dollar annual-revenue business. These are long-range possibilities as presented by The Motley Fool, not established outcomes. The article does not provide the original earnings-call passage for the latter characterization.
Investment and automation
The same article reports Amazon operating cash flow above $160 billion and cash reserves of $120 billion, and says the company planned to spend $220 billion in 2026 to expand computing and e-commerce infrastructure. Those figures and the spending plan are reported by The Motley Fool. The investment case assumes that added capacity, proprietary chips, robotics and AI-enabled automation can support growth or improve efficiency; the spending itself does not prove those returns will materialize.
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Why Eli Lilly is the other pick
GLP-1 medicines and sales growth
The Lilly thesis rests on demand for its GLP-1 medicines, including Mounjaro and Zepbound, as well as its research pipeline. The Motley Fool article reports second-quarter 2026 Mounjaro sales of $9.9 billion, up 91%, and Zepbound sales of $4.9 billion, up 44%. These are the article’s reported results, not figures independently verified here.
Tenebruso’s article cites a Morgan Stanley projection that global GLP-1 drug sales could reach $190 billion by 2035. It also characterizes Wall Street’s expectation as roughly 22% annualized earnings growth over the next five years. Both are forecasts cited by the article, not assured growth rates; the article does not identify the underlying analyst estimates or forecast document.
Pipeline and access
The article also points to Lilly’s oral product Foundayo, expanded Medicare coverage programs and the company’s drug pipeline as potential growth supports. Those points are part of the author’s thesis; the article’s cited material does not establish how much revenue they will generate or whether they will meet expectations. For a long-term investment, projected market growth matters only if products can reach patients and Lilly can turn demand and research into profitable sales.
How the two investment cases differ
| Company | Reported evidence cited in the article | What must go right | Key uncertainty |
|---|---|---|---|
| Amazon (AMZN) | The Motley Fool article reports AWS second-quarter 2026 sales growth of 37%, annualized revenue of $169 billion and operating margins near 40%. It reports a $220 billion Amazon spending plan for 2026. | Cloud and AI demand must support continued AWS growth, and infrastructure and automation investments must earn adequate returns. | The long-range AWS revenue outlook is an expectation, while the article does not establish the future payoff from the planned spending. |
| Eli Lilly (LLY) | The Motley Fool article reports second-quarter 2026 sales of $9.9 billion for Mounjaro and $4.9 billion for Zepbound, and cites a $190 billion global GLP-1 market projection for 2035. | Demand for Lilly’s products, its ability to develop and commercialize pipeline medicines, and earnings growth must support the valuation investors pay. | The market-size and earnings figures are forecasts cited by the article; they do not establish Lilly’s eventual share, profits or stock return. |
What could prevent either stock from outperforming?
The prediction depends on more than company growth. A business can expand while its stock underperforms if investors already expect even faster growth or if the price paid is too high relative to future earnings and cash generation. The article does not provide a valuation comparison or a price-based return forecast, so it cannot answer whether either share is attractive at a particular purchase price.
- Execution and capital returns: Amazon’s planned infrastructure spending has to produce enough durable business value to justify the resources committed.
- Forecast risk: AWS revenue outlooks and GLP-1 market and earnings estimates are forward-looking, so actual results can differ.
- Competition and product risk: Both theses require the companies to sustain successful businesses and products; the cited article does not quantify how competitors or future product outcomes could affect results.
- Policy and access: Lilly’s case includes expanded Medicare coverage programs, but coverage details and future policy can affect access and sales. The article does not provide enough underlying policy detail to assess that effect.
- Benchmark and timing: Outperformance depends on the chosen comparison, the measurement dates and total returns. A decade-long thesis does not eliminate the risk of poor returns or prolonged declines along the way.
What investors should take from the call
Amazon and Eli Lilly are the two stocks Tenebruso selected, with AWS and AI-related investment driving the Amazon case and GLP-1 medicines and pipeline expectations driving the Lilly case. The article supplies reasons to watch both companies, but it does not establish that either will outperform a defined market index over a defined decade. Investors considering the thesis should assess current valuation, the assumptions behind expected growth and their ability to tolerate loss; the article’s reported figures alone are not a buy signal.
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Disclosure: The Motley Fool article states that the publisher has positions in and recommends Amazon and Eli Lilly, while author Joe Tenebruso has no position in the stocks mentioned. That context is relevant when weighing the article’s bullish prediction.
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