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Outbyte Driver Updater FREEScan for outdated or missing drivers - takes under a minuteDriver Scan →Outbyte PC Repair FREERepair Windows errors before they cause bigger problemsFix Now →OpenAI was reported to expect its revenue share paid to commercial partners, including Microsoft, to fall from about 20% to about 10% by the end of 2030. That was an investor-facing forecast—not confirmation that Microsoft had agreed to a 10% contract rate. A later amendment changed the picture: in April 2026, Microsoft said OpenAI would keep paying the same percentage through 2030, subject to a total cap. The companies did not disclose the percentage or the cap amount in that announcement.
What the 2025 report actually said
On May 7, 2025, TechCrunch reported on The Information’s account of private financial documents. OpenAI reportedly expected to reduce the portion of revenue it shared with commercial partners from roughly 20% to roughly 10% by the end of 2030. The same documents reportedly projected about $174 billion in OpenAI revenue for 2030. Those figures were projections, not reported results. TechCrunch’s coverage and The Information’s report are the sources for the forecast.
The distinction matters: a projected 10% share across commercial partners is not necessarily a new Microsoft-specific rate. The public reporting does not establish that Microsoft negotiated or accepted a reduction to 10%. Nor does it establish that Microsoft receives that percentage of every dollar OpenAI earns. The companies’ public announcements describe revenue sharing but do not disclose a complete definition of covered revenue.
In other words, the 2025 story described an expected future burden in OpenAI’s financial projections. It did not, by itself, amend the contract.
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Why a lower effective share would matter
A revenue share can become more expensive in absolute dollars as a company grows, even when the percentage stays constant. If OpenAI’s products—such as subscriptions, enterprise offerings and API services—generate substantially more revenue, a fixed share of that revenue could consume more cash. Reducing the effective burden could improve margins and give OpenAI more room to fund computing capacity and other partnerships. These are business implications of the reported forecast, not motives the companies publicly confirmed.
OpenAI’s partner relationships also matter because the Microsoft arrangement is not necessarily limited to sales made directly through OpenAI’s own website or API. In February 2026, OpenAI said the revenue-sharing arrangement had always included revenue from partnerships with other cloud providers. A deal involving another provider therefore does not automatically mean the related revenue is outside Microsoft’s arrangement. The public statement does not provide the detailed accounting rules. OpenAI’s February 2026 statement addresses the point.
How the agreement changed
| Date | What was announced or reported | What it means for the revenue-share story |
|---|---|---|
| 2019 | Microsoft and OpenAI established their strategic partnership. | The partnership later grew to include cloud, licensing and revenue-sharing arrangements. |
| January 21, 2025 | Microsoft said revenue-sharing arrangements, intellectual-property rights and API exclusivity would continue through 2030. | The public statement confirmed reciprocal revenue sharing but did not publish the precise percentages. Microsoft’s partnership update. |
| May 7, 2025 | TechCrunch reported The Information’s account of an expected decline in OpenAI’s share of revenue paid to commercial partners, from roughly 20% to roughly 10% by 2030. | This was a reported forecast, not public proof of a revised Microsoft rate. |
| October 28, 2025 | Microsoft announced a new definitive agreement. Revenue sharing was described as continuing until AGI was verified by an independent expert panel, with payments spread over a longer period. | At that point, the public framework tied the revenue-share arrangement to AGI verification. The agreement also disclosed other parts of the partnership. Microsoft’s SEC-filed agreement announcement. |
| February 27, 2026 | OpenAI and Microsoft said their commercial and revenue-sharing relationship remained unchanged under the terms disclosed in October 2025. | The arrangement still included revenue from OpenAI partnerships with other cloud providers. OpenAI’s statement. |
| April 27, 2026 | The companies amended the agreement. Microsoft said OpenAI would continue paying through 2030 at the same percentage as before, subject to a total cap; Microsoft would stop paying OpenAI a revenue share. | This is the latest public description of the revenue-share terms as of August 18, 2026. The announcement does not disclose the percentage or cap. Microsoft’s announcement. |
| May 11, 2026 | Reuters reported, citing The Information, that the total amount OpenAI would share with Microsoft had been capped at approximately $38 billion. | The amount is reported, not confirmed in the companies’ April public announcement. Reuters’ report carried by Fidelity. |
Does Microsoft receive 20% of OpenAI’s revenue?
Reports have described the existing share as approximately 20% of OpenAI’s top-line revenue, but the companies’ public April 2026 announcement does not state that figure. It says the percentage remains the same as before and that payments are subject to a cap. The available public statements do not establish that 20% applies to every category of OpenAI revenue, or provide a full list of inclusions and exclusions.
Microsoft has also described the relationship as reciprocal. Under the April 2026 amendment, however, Microsoft said it would no longer pay OpenAI a revenue share, while OpenAI’s payments to Microsoft continue through 2030. That makes the revised arrangement less reciprocal, even as the percentage payable by OpenAI remains unchanged in the companies’ public description.
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How a cap can reduce the effective share without changing the rate
A percentage determines how payments grow with covered revenue. A cap limits the cumulative amount payable. If covered revenue grows enough for the cap to bind, payments can stop increasing even while revenue continues to rise. The effective share—payments divided by the relevant revenue base—would then decline. A nominal rate that stays the same can therefore coexist with a falling effective percentage.
Reuters reported an approximately $38 billion cap, citing The Information, but Microsoft and OpenAI did not confirm that figure in their April announcement. The public information also does not show when a cap might be reached. That would depend on the contract’s definition of covered revenue, payment timing, exclusions and other mechanics, which have not been publicly detailed.
Independent reader supportYour contribution helps us test, update, and keep practical guides available for everyone.What Microsoft receives beyond revenue sharing
The revenue share is only one element of the partnership. In its October 2025 disclosure, Microsoft said it held approximately 27% of OpenAI Group PBC on an as-converted diluted basis following the recapitalization. The agreement also disclosed an incremental $250 billion commitment by OpenAI to purchase Azure services. These are separate economic arrangements: Azure service purchases are not the same thing as revenue-share payments. Microsoft’s SEC-filed announcement provides those figures.
The April 2026 amendment also shifted the balance of exclusivity and cloud access. Microsoft remains OpenAI’s primary cloud partner, but OpenAI can serve products to customers through any cloud provider. Microsoft’s license to OpenAI models and products continues through 2032, but is non-exclusive. That 2032 IP term is distinct from the revenue-share payments, which the April announcement says continue through 2030. Microsoft’s April announcement describes the updated terms.
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What remains unknown
- The precise percentage payable by OpenAI under the amended agreement.
- The contract’s complete definition of covered revenue and any excluded categories.
- The payment schedule and detailed mechanics of the cap.
- Whether the reported $38 billion cap includes every relevant payment stream.
- Whether the 2025 forecast of a 10% commercial-partner share was ever negotiated as a Microsoft-specific contractual rate.
The 2030 date should not be treated as a single end date for every part of the relationship. Revenue sharing, model and research IP, API exclusivity, cloud rights, AGI verification and Azure commitments are distinct provisions. The October 2025 agreement and April 2026 amendment describe different terms for different parts of the partnership; the later amendment’s public description is the clearest current statement on revenue sharing.
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