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1Clear out junk files and repair common Windows errors2Fix the driver behind crashes, sound loss and screen glitches3Repair Windows errors before they cause bigger problemsZerodha founder and CEO Nithin Kamath says India’s IPO market is diverging sharply from a broader equity market that feels weak to him. Data reported on October 7, 2026, supports the contrast for one recent group of mainboard IPOs: 67.2% of 125 listings were above their issue price at the October 6 close, with a median return of 24.7%. But nearly one in three was below issue price, and those closing-price figures are not the same as listing-day gains.
What did Nithin Kamath say about IPOs and the broader market?
In a post on X dated October 7, 2026, Kamath called IPOs “the only bullish corner of the market right now.” He said the broader market had been steadily falling and “certainly feels like a bear market,” while describing recent IPOs as “a full-on party.” He also said he could not remember such a stark divergence between the primary and secondary markets.
Those are Kamath’s characterizations, not a universal diagnosis of market conditions. The Economic Times report accompanying his comments cited a Nifty 50 close of 22,603 on October 6, 2026, saying the index was 3,770.2 points, or about 14.3%, below its reported peak of 26,373.20 and down 13.55% year to date. These are figures as reported by the publication; the underlying index calculations have not been independently verified here.
How strong were recent mainboard IPO returns?
The Economic Times reported closing-price returns for 401 mainboard IPOs across five consecutive 12-month listing cohorts. For each IPO, the comparison runs from its issue price to the October 6, 2026 close, excluding dividends. The latest cohort was stronger than the preceding year in that snapshot:
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| Listing window | IPOs | Above issue price at October 6, 2026 close | Median return |
|---|---|---|---|
| October 2025–September 2026 | 125 | 67.2% | +24.7% |
| October 2024–September 2025 | 95 | 47.4% | −9.4% |
The figures are from the cohort analysis reported by The Economic Times, based on data shared by Kamath; the report does not describe an independent audit of the full dataset. The 401-IPO sample excludes SME listings, REITs, InvITs and follow-on public offers (FPOs).
What the latest cohort’s return bands show
The same report breaks down the October 2025–September 2026 cohort by return at the stated closing-price endpoint. The percentages below are shares of all 125 IPOs, not returns for an individual investor.
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| Return versus issue price | Share of the 125 IPOs |
|---|---|
| Up 0–25% | 17.6% |
| Up 25–50% | 18.4% |
| Up 50–100% | 17.6% |
| Up more than 100% | 13.6% |
| Down 0–25% | 20.8% |
| Down 25–50% | 6.4% |
| Down more than 50% | 5.6% |
In other words, 32.8% were below issue price at the October 6 close. The positive median and the share above issue price describe the cohort as a whole; neither means every IPO gained.
Independent reader supportYour contribution helps us test, update, and keep practical guides available for everyone.Does this mean IPO listing gains are easy money?
No. A separate Mint analysis published September 3, 2026, looked at a different outcome: the price at which IPOs opened on listing day, compared with their issue price. For its latest window, September 2025–August 2026, it reported that 74.1% opened above issue price, the median listing gain was 6.08%, and 3.7% opened more than 50% above issue price. The analysis also notes that a popular IPO can be harder to obtain an allotment in.
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These listing-day opening figures cannot be combined with the October cohort’s closing-price returns. One asks how the stock opened on its first trading day; the other measures where it stood at the October 6, 2026 close. The windows and price endpoints differ, so the results answer different questions.
Nor does a cohort statistic describe the result for any one applicant. An investor’s outcome depends on whether shares were allotted, how many were allotted, the price at which they were sold or valued, and any transaction costs or taxes. The reported data are historical observations, not a forecast or a promise of future IPO performance.
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Sources and scope
- The Economic Times, October 7, 2026: Kamath’s comments and closing-price cohort returns, based on data shared by him.
- Mint, September 3, 2026: a separate analysis of listing-day opening gains and the allotment caveat.
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