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Re:

Only 1.05 Million Adjustable-Rate Mortgages Are Currently Resetting

ICE reports that 1.05 million active ARMs are currently adjusting—the lowest count in more than 25 years of tracking—while most newer ARMs remain in their introductory fixed-rate period.
From TheFinanceBase Team3 min to read
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Only 1.05 million active adjustable-rate mortgages (ARMs) have passed their initial fixed-rate period and are currently adjusting, according to ICE’s October 2026 Mortgage Monitor. ICE says that is the lowest number in more than 25 years of its tracking. It does not mean only 1.05 million ARMs exist: ICE counts 3.1 million active first-lien ARMs overall, and most have not yet reached their first reset.

What the 1.05 million figure counts

The figure is a count of active ARM loans that have reached their first rate reset and are operating as adjustable-rate loans. It is not the total number of active ARMs, nor does it count every borrower who may face a future reset. ICE reported the figure in its October 2026 Mortgage Monitor, published October 5, 2026.

ICE reported 3.1 million active first-lien ARMs, equal to 5.6% of active mortgages. Roughly one-third of those loans had begun adjusting. More than 90% of ARMs originated since 2022 were still in their introductory fixed-rate periods, so the low current count reflects when loans were originated and how long their initial terms last—not an absence of ARM borrowers.

Why so few ARMs are adjusting now

Many loans currently beyond their first fixed period were originated more than a decade ago and have already gone through rate adjustments, including during the Federal Reserve’s 2022–2023 tightening cycle, ICE says. Meanwhile, most ARMs originated since 2022 have not yet reached their first reset. The count of loans adjusting today is therefore a snapshot of loans that have exited their initial fixed periods, not a measure of all future exposure.

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ICE also reported that ARMs made up more than 11% of rate locks, the largest share in nearly four years. Its conforming 30-year fixed-rate index reached 7.2% on September 24, 2026. Those are dated market observations, not current quotes or forecasts, and can change as mortgage rates and borrower demand shift. ICE head of Mortgage and Housing Market Research Andy Walden said, “ARMs are becoming more attractive to borrowers looking for relief from today’s higher fixed rates, but the overall market exposure to adjustable payments remains relatively limited.”

What an ARM reset could mean for a monthly payment

ICE estimated that if underlying ARM indexes passed through a full 25-basis-point increase, the median affected borrower’s payment would rise by about $14 a month. For loans originated since 2022, ICE estimated an increase of about $53 a month under the same assumption. These are aggregate estimates, not calculations for a particular loan or borrower.

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ICE also projected that about 74,000 seven-year ARMs originated in 2020 could face the largest median increase among resets expected next year: about $1,066 a month, or 36%. This is a projection, not a guaranteed payment change. The actual result depends on each loan’s terms and reset conditions.

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How to estimate your own reset

The ICE figures cannot tell an individual borrower what their next payment will be. The loan note and reset notice determine the calculation. Check these details in your documents or ask your servicer:

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  • Reset date and frequency: When the introductory period ends and how often the rate can change afterward.
  • Index and margin: The benchmark used to set the new rate and the contractual amount added to it.
  • Rate caps: Limits on the size of a change at each adjustment and over the life of the loan.
  • Balance and remaining term: The principal still owed and the time left to repay it, both of which affect the payment calculation.

For a broader borrowing decision, compare the ARM’s initial rate and payment, introductory-period length, adjustment schedule, index, margin, and caps with the fixed-rate alternative. Also consider how long you expect to keep the home and whether your budget could absorb a higher payment. ICE’s report does not compare specific loan offers or recommend a loan for any household.

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  • CONFIDENTLY AND EASILY SOLVE: Clients' financial questions whether they're buyers, sellers, investors or renters. Increase your perceived professionalism as a new agent, experienced broker or seasoned loan officer. Close more home sales and impress your clients with fast, accurate answers to all their real estate finance questions from PITI Payments to IRR, NPV and Cashflows
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  • FIGURE OUT THE RIGHT LOAN: For your client at the press of a button for jumbo, conventional, FHA/VA, or even 80:10:10 or 80:15:5 combo loans; check to see if ARMs or bi-weekly loans, quarterly payments or if interest-only payments are the answer; giving your client more choices; easily perform what if loan or TVM calculations find loan amount, term, interest or PITI or PI payments
  • BECOME AN INVALUABLE RESOURCE: To your clients by reducing their confusion and uncertainty; ensuring they are able to make a purchase offer; knowing they can afford the down payment; and determining which is the right loan for them. Date-math for listings and contracts too. Comes with a protective slide cover, quick reference guide, pocket user's guide, long-life battery, 1-year warranty

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