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Online shopping continued to grow in 2023, but the pandemic-era surge was giving way to a more measured, value-conscious market. The biggest shifts were practical: shopping across stores and websites, mobile-first discovery and checkout, flexible payments, and better delivery and returns. AI and social shopping were growing, but their value depended on the product and the retailer’s ability to use them responsibly.
For consumers, these changes affected how they found products, compared prices, paid, and handled returns. For retailers, the central challenge was to improve convenience without letting discounts, shipping, returns, or technology costs erase the margin.
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Online sales kept growing, but the pace was normalizing
The 2023 outlook was not that ecommerce would replace physical retail. Instead, online shopping was expected to keep expanding as part of a broader retail system that included stores, apps, marketplaces, and pickup and delivery services. Growth rates were moderating after the extraordinary pandemic-period shift to online buying, while inflation, interest rates, and household budgets made shoppers more selective.
Forecasts varied partly because they measured different things. In March 2023, the National Retail Federation (NRF) forecast that U.S. online and non-store sales would grow 10%–12% year over year to $1.41–$1.43 trillion. Its category included non-store sales and multichannel activity, not just orders placed on ecommerce-only sites. FTI Consulting separately projected about $1.14 trillion in U.S. online retail sales for 2023 and estimated ecommerce would account for 42% of total retail-sales growth. That was a forecast with a narrower scope, so the figures are not direct comparisons. NRF’s 2023 forecast and FTI Consulting’s 2023 Online Retail Report show how definitions affect headline totals.
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With 2023 now complete, the NRF’s retrospective reported U.S. retail sales of approximately $5.1 trillion, up 3.6% from 2022, and about $1.38 trillion in online and non-store sales. Those are later reported results, not the original forecast, and the broad non-store measure should not be treated as identical to narrower online-retail estimates. NRF’s 2024 forecast FAQ provides the retrospective figures and definitions.
Omnichannel shopping made stores part of ecommerce
Customers increasingly moved between channels during one purchase: they might discover an item on social media, check stock on a retailer’s site, inspect it in a store, place an app order, collect it curbside, and return it at another location. That makes “online versus in-store” a poor way to understand many shopping journeys.
- Buy online, pick up in store: useful when customers want online selection and pricing but a quicker or more predictable handoff.
- Ship from store: local inventory can help fulfill online orders, but only if stock records, labor, and order routing are reliable.
- Buy online, return in store: can reduce friction for shoppers and bring a return into a physical location, though handling and refund processes must be coordinated.
- Local inventory visibility: accurate store-level availability lets customers make a more informed choice about shipping or pickup.
NRF tied its expected online-sales growth to multichannel activity and the role of physical stores in fulfillment. The commercial test is not simply whether an online order rises: retailers should also examine total customer value, fulfillment cost, inventory accuracy, store-assisted sales, and return rates. Omnichannel adds complexity when systems do not share timely inventory and order information, or when service staff cannot see a customer’s activity across channels.
Mobile became the default companion for discovery and checkout
Mobile commerce was more than a website resized for a phone. It connected social referrals, product video and reviews, store QR codes, loyalty apps, push notifications, digital wallets, and checkout. Salesforce reported that mobile phones accounted for 79% of global ecommerce traffic during Cyber Week 2023, up from 76% in 2022. This is a seasonal traffic measure from Salesforce’s data, not a share of all annual ecommerce sales or proof that mobile generated the same share of revenue. Salesforce’s Cyber Week report gives the period and measurement context.
Mobile traffic does not make desktop irrelevant. A shopper may discover a product on a phone and later use a larger screen to compare specifications, read detailed reviews, or complete a considered purchase. A useful mobile experience should make that journey continuous rather than forcing customers to start over.
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Social media and video influenced product discovery
“Social commerce” covers several different behaviors, and they should not be confused. A person may see a product in a feed, follow a link to a retailer, or browse and pay within the social platform itself. Creator recommendations, short-form video, livestreams, shoppable posts, affiliate links, and community reviews can all contribute, but success depends on the audience, platform, product, and amount of trust required.
Social discovery is a more modest claim than a completed social-platform purchase. A click or a view does not establish that a sale occurred, and attribution can be difficult when a shopper switches devices or returns later through another channel. Algorithmic reach and platform shopping features can also change, so a retailer should avoid relying on a single platform as its entire acquisition strategy.
Video and creator-led recommendations often fit visually demonstrable or impulse-friendly products such as beauty, fashion, accessories, food, and collectibles. They can be harder to use as a substitute for detailed comparison, expert advice, or verification for expensive, technical, regulated, or highly customized products. Retailers should judge these efforts by qualified visits, completed purchases, returns, and repeat behavior—not views alone.
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In 2023, AI was best understood as an emerging tool for improving parts of the shopping and operating experience, not as a replacement for search, merchandising, or human service. Retailers explored recommendation ranking, conversational product discovery, customer-service chat, product-description drafting, review summaries, image work, fraud detection, demand forecasting, and campaign analysis. McKinsey’s Technology Trends Outlook 2023 identified generative AI as a newly prominent technology while noting that many advanced technologies remained early in adoption and scale.
Salesforce attributed $51 billion in global online sales to AI influence during the seven-day 2023 Cyber Week period. Its definition included recommendations, targeted offers, and generative-AI chat services. “AI-influenced” is Salesforce’s attribution category; it does not mean all those sales were generated by AI, nor does it establish that AI independently caused them. Salesforce’s Cyber Week data describes its measure.
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- Visa Virtual eGift Cards are designed for online use only. Gift Cards are subject to Terms and Conditions: a.co/5bw3qXJ
- When you access your Visa Virtual eGift Card for the first time, you’ll need to register your name, address, phone number, and email address via activationspot.com. These details should also be used as your billing address for online purchases, as many merchants require address verification for purchase authorization.
- This Visa Virtual eGift Card is non-reloadable. No cash or ATM access. Visa Virtual eGift Cards are emailed active.
- Funds do not expire but your Visa Virtual eGift Card has a ‘valid thru’ date (9 years from date of purchase). If funds remain after this date has passed, please call the Toll Free number found on your Visa Virtual eGift Card for a replacement card. A one-time purchase fee applies at the time of checkout.
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AI can also scale mistakes. A chatbot may invent specifications, a generated description may overstate a product’s capabilities, and a recommendation system may misread a customer’s intent or narrow what they see. Human escalation remains important for complex or sensitive cases. Retailers need review and correction processes, clear accountability, and controls on the customer data used to personalize or automate interactions.
Personalization became more useful—and more sensitive
Personalization can help shoppers find relevant products through better search, recommendations based on browsing or purchase history, location-aware inventory, category-specific pages, replenishment reminders, and loyalty offers. FTI Consulting reported that roughly 80% of surveyed shoppers believed personalization could improve online shopping, while 75% said they were very interested in personalized offers and advertising. These are survey responses, not a guarantee that every shopper wants tracking or will respond to a targeted promotion. FTI’s report is the source for the survey findings.
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Zero-party data—preferences or information a customer deliberately shares through a profile, quiz, or survey—can complement other data sources as reliance on third-party tracking changes. It is not a complete privacy solution: customers still need to understand how the information will be used, and retailers must handle it responsibly.
Flexible payments offered convenience but carried trade-offs
Digital wallets, stored payment credentials, local payment methods, installment plans, and buy now, pay later (BNPL) gave shoppers more ways to pay. Flexible payments could appeal to customers managing tight budgets and potentially reduce checkout friction, but they also raised affordability, fee, and refund questions.
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Adobe Analytics recorded $76.8 billion in U.S. online spending in October 2023, up 5.9% year over year. Adobe said early promotions and flexible payment methods, including BNPL, helped attract shoppers during the 2023 holiday period. The spending figure is Adobe’s transaction-data measure, not an estimate of BNPL’s independent effect on conversion. Adobe’s October and early-holiday analysis provides the context.
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- For retailers: weigh provider fees, credit eligibility, refund complexity, and relevant regulatory obligations against any improvement in checkout completion.
- For both: treat BNPL as one payment choice, not as evidence that a purchase is affordable.
Value-seeking changed what shoppers considered a good deal
Inflation and pressure on household budgets made shoppers more attentive to prices, promotions, shipping thresholds, and alternatives. Retailers responded with earlier holiday deals, coupons, loyalty pricing, bundles, private-label options, and refurbished or pre-owned goods. Adobe’s analysis of October 2023 described online spending supported by early promotions, with discounts visible in categories including electronics and apparel.
Lowest price is only one part of value. A reliable delivery date, easy returns, durable products, warranty coverage, responsive support, and confidence in authenticity can matter as much as a discount. Retailers, meanwhile, need to consider whether promotions create repeat customers or simply train customers to delay purchases until prices fall. A discount that raises order volume can still harm a business if it pushes orders below a sustainable margin after shipping, payment fees, and returns.
Independent reader supportYour contribution helps us test, update, and keep practical guides available for everyone.Delivery and returns became part of the product experience
After checkout, shoppers need an accurate delivery window, visible order status, and straightforward ways to handle a delay, exchange, or refund. Retailers competed not only on speed but on certainty: a dependable delivery promise can be more useful than a faster promise that is frequently missed.
- Give realistic delivery estimates before payment and notify customers proactively when an order changes.
- Offer pickup, lockers, or pickup points where they suit local demand and operational capacity.
- Make return initiation and refund status easy to find, including for orders that cross channels.
- Provide a route to human help when automated service cannot resolve an exception.
Common failure points include promising same-day delivery without dependable local stock, revealing delivery charges only at the end of checkout, and separating marketplace, store, and web returns into confusing processes. Delayed refunds and support automation without an escalation path can lead to repeat contacts and disputes. For low-margin or high-return categories, free shipping and free returns may improve the experience while still undermining the economics.
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Resale, subscriptions, and sustainability had selective appeal
Recommerce—selling pre-owned, refurbished, or repaired goods—could serve shoppers looking for lower prices and those seeking to extend a product’s useful life. Take-back programs, repair parts, durable products, reduced packaging, and consolidated deliveries were other ways retailers explored sustainability. Their environmental value depends on the product and the full journey, not the online channel alone.
Delivery distance and speed, failed deliveries, returns, packaging, warehouse energy, product durability, and whether an online purchase replaces or adds to a store trip all affect environmental impact. A broad claim that online shopping is inherently greener is not justified without category-specific evidence.
Subscriptions make most sense for recurring needs such as household essentials, pet supplies, and beauty replenishment. Flexible timing and easy cancellation are important: forgotten renewals, mismatched inventory, and inflexible schedules can create dissatisfaction and churn. Subscription billing is a poor fit for products customers buy irregularly or want to select anew each time.
Emerging formats required a measured approach
Augmented reality and virtual try-on
AR can help with tasks such as visualizing furniture in a room or previewing makeup and eyewear. Its usefulness depends on device support and how accurately the experience represents size, fit, or color. It can be valuable where visual uncertainty is a real obstacle, but the availability of try-on tools alone does not prove they reduce returns. Adobe’s overview of 2023 ecommerce trends includes AR and other themes, but some of its trend descriptions are directional rather than independent verification.
Voice shopping
Voice interfaces can support hands-free searching, list-making, and reordering familiar products. They are less suited to comparing visual details or resolving ambiguous attributes. Voice search and assisted reordering should not be mistaken for widespread completed voice transactions or a replacement for visual ecommerce.
Metaverse storefronts and fully autonomous shopping
Virtual storefronts and shopping agents attracted attention, but they were more experimental than mobile checkout, store pickup, or digital wallets. An immersive store needs a clear customer use case and evidence that it helps discovery, purchase, or service. Technology adopted mainly for publicity can consume development and support resources without solving a meaningful shopping problem.
What retailers should prioritize
A sensible 2023 priority was to fix the foundations before adding a novel channel or tool. Each investment should solve a demonstrated customer problem, have a measurable baseline, fit the retailer’s categories and markets, and integrate with inventory, commerce, and service systems. It also needs a fallback for outages or automation errors.
- Make mobile checkout reliable. Improve page speed, navigation, payment choice, shipping transparency, accessibility, and cart continuity.
- Connect channels operationally. Invest in accurate inventory, order routing, pickup, and cross-channel returns before promising services the business cannot fulfill consistently.
- Protect value and margin together. Test promotions, shipping thresholds, and payment options against contribution margin, repeat purchases, and returns—not conversion alone.
- Use customer data with restraint. Give shoppers control, use shared preferences appropriately, and check that personalization improves relevance rather than merely increasing message volume.
- Pilot emerging tools against a clear outcome. Measure AI, social commerce, AR, and subscriptions on relevant customer and operational results before scaling them.
That order also helps distinguish established practices from experiments. Mobile usability, multichannel fulfillment, clear delivery, and value-conscious merchandising addressed broad, immediate needs. Social shopping, AI applications, AR, and subscriptions could be worthwhile tests where they fit. Metaverse retail and fully autonomous shopping did not warrant adoption without a specific customer benefit and a credible business case.
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