Nintendo reported that worldwide lifetime sell-through of the Switch topped 10 million units by December 10, 2017. That is not the same measure as Nintendo’s shipment forecasts for its fiscal year ending March 31, 2018, or the separate estimate of about 8 million shipments that IDC gaming research director Lewis Ward was reported to expect by the end of the first quarter of 2018.
How many Nintendo Switch consoles had been sold by the end of 2017?
Nintendo announced on December 12, 2017, that lifetime worldwide sell-through had exceeded 10 million units as of December 10. Sell-through refers to units sold through to customers; it is different from hardware shipped by Nintendo to retailers and other distribution channels. The milestone was worldwide and cumulative from the console’s launch, not a count of units sold during calendar 2017 alone. Nintendo’s December 2017 announcement reported the milestone. [c001]
What Nintendo forecast for hardware shipments
Nintendo’s forecasts concerned hardware shipments during its fiscal year, which ends March 31. The company first projected 10 million Switch hardware shipments for the fiscal year ending March 31, 2018, in its May 2017 results briefing. It raised that projection to 14 million on October 30, 2017. These are company forecasts, not figures for calendar-year consumer sales. Nintendo’s investor materials provide the fiscal-year figures. [c002] [c003]
| Figure | Measure and period | What it represents |
|---|---|---|
| 2.74 million | Hardware shipped in the fiscal year ended March 31, 2017 | Nintendo-reported total for the partial launch-year fiscal period, not a full 12 months of sales. [c002] |
| 10 million | Hardware shipments forecast for the fiscal year ending March 31, 2018; initial forecast published in May 2017 | Nintendo’s original projection. [c002] |
| 14 million | Hardware shipments forecast for the fiscal year ending March 31, 2018; revised October 30, 2017 | Nintendo’s revised projection. [c003] |
| More than 10 million | Worldwide lifetime sell-through as of December 10, 2017 | Nintendo’s cumulative customer-sales milestone announced December 12. [c001] |
| About 8 million | Worldwide Switch shipments expected by the end of Q1 2018 | Forecast attributed to IDC gaming research director Lewis Ward in a contemporaneous TechTimes report, not a final result. [c005] |
The 2.74 million figure covers the fiscal year in which Switch launched, so it should not be read as a comparable full-year result. The 10 million sell-through milestone and the 10 million or 14 million shipment projections also cannot be compared as if they measured the same thing over the same dates.
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What IDC forecast for Nintendo Switch
A contemporaneous TechTimes report attributed an estimate of about 8 million worldwide Switch shipments by the end of the first quarter of 2018 to Lewis Ward, IDC’s gaming research director. This is an analyst forecast reported by a secondary source, rather than a directly retrieved IDC corporate forecast document. Its endpoint is Q1 2018; the report does not support describing it as an estimate of 8 million sales in calendar 2017. TechTimes’ report is the source for the attribution. [c005]
The estimate is also not interchangeable with Nintendo’s 14 million projection: Nintendo’s figure was for shipments in its fiscal year ending March 31, 2018, while the Ward estimate was reported with an end-of-Q1 2018 horizon. The available figures do not establish a final IDC-versus-actual comparison using precisely aligned dates and definitions.
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Other 2017 figures: software and the console market
Nintendo reported 4.89 million Switch hardware units and 22.02 million Switch software units sold in the six months ended September 30, 2017. It separately reported global Splatoon 2 sales of 3.61 million units for that six-month period. These are period-specific company figures, not year-end hardware totals. Nintendo’s half-year investor materials contain the figures. [c004]
For broader context, Pegatron’s 2017 annual report reproduced an IDC estimate that 42 million game consoles would ship worldwide in 2017, up 44.1% year over year, and said IDC expected growth momentum to continue into 2018. That estimate covers the console market, not Nintendo Switch alone, and is available here through Pegatron rather than a direct IDC publication. Pegatron’s annual report reproduces the market estimate. [c006]
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How to read the figures without mixing them up
- Check the measure: sell-through describes customer sales; shipments describe hardware distributed by the manufacturer.
- Check the time window: Nintendo’s fiscal year ended March 31, while the IDC-attributed estimate was reported through the end of Q1 2018. A cumulative lifetime milestone is different again.
- Check whether the number is actual or forecast: Nintendo’s December milestone was a reported result; its 10 million and 14 million figures were forecasts; Ward’s roughly 8 million figure was an analyst estimate reported by TechTimes.
- Keep market-wide data separate: the 42 million figure refers to all game-console shipments, not Switch units.
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