Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene said on October 7, 2025, that she was “absolutely disgusted” that health insurance premiums could double if enhanced Affordable Care Act (ACA) tax credits expired. Those credits did expire at the end of 2025. But the widely cited 114% figure was a forecast of the average increase in premium payments for a defined group keeping the same plan—not a prediction that every household’s bill or every plan’s full price would double.
What Greene said—and when
During the government-funding standoff and congressional debate over extending the enhanced ACA Marketplace credits, Greene said her adult children’s 2026 premiums would double, along with premiums for families in her district. In her October 2025 post, she wrote: “And I’m absolutely disgusted that health insurance premiums will DOUBLE if the tax credits expire this year.” A contemporaneous Senate release attributed the statement to her, and the Congressional Record reproduced her family-specific claim during the debate.
Greene’s remarks were conditional forecasts about what might happen if the enhanced credits lapsed. They were not a finding about the bill of every Marketplace customer.
What changed in 2026
The enhanced credits, expanded in 2021 and extended through 2025, expired at the end of 2025. As of KFF’s January 14, 2026 update, Congress had not renewed them. The standard ACA Premium Tax Credit remains available to eligible Marketplace enrollees. The IRS explains that eligible people can use the credit to help pay for Marketplace coverage; advance payments may go directly to an insurer to reduce monthly premiums. See the IRS explanation of the Premium Tax Credit.
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What the 114% estimate actually measured
KFF’s 2025 analysis estimated that, if the enhanced credits expired, average premium payments in 2026 would increase 114% for subsidized Marketplace enrollees who kept the same plan. This is a projected average change in what those enrollees pay after tax credits, compared with their payments for the same plan—not a 114% rise in every plan’s gross, or sticker, premium. Individual changes can differ.
The estimate should be read with its scope attached: it concerns subsidized enrollees, a same-plan comparison, and a projected average. It does not establish what any one person paid in 2026.
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Why CMS’s $50 figure is not a contradiction
CMS projected in its 2025 Plan Year 2026 fact sheet that eligible HealthCare.gov enrollees would pay an average of $50 per month after credits for the lowest-cost plan in 2026. That measures a different choice and population than KFF’s same-plan estimate:
| Figure | What it measures | What it does not establish |
|---|---|---|
| 114% (KFF, 2025) | Projected average increase in after-credit premium payments for subsidized Marketplace enrollees keeping the same plan in 2026 if enhanced credits expired. | That every enrollee’s payment, or every plan’s full premium, would rise by that amount. |
| $50 per month (CMS, 2025) | Projected average after-credit premium for the lowest-cost HealthCare.gov plan in 2026 for eligible enrollees. | The amount a particular household would pay, or the cost of staying in its current plan. |
One figure compares the cost of keeping the same plan; the other describes the lowest-cost option. Neither is a personal quote.
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What early 2026 enrollment data show
The Associated Press reported that federal Marketplace data showed about 2.6 million fewer people paid their first monthly premium for coverage in February 2026 than in February 2025. That is an enrollment comparison after the enhanced credits expired. It is not a count of people who lost coverage solely because of the expiration, and it does not verify Greene’s claim about her children’s bills. See the AP report on the enrollment data.
Will your own Marketplace premium double?
The national projection cannot answer that for an individual. A household’s net premium depends on details including location, age, household composition, income, plan selection, and eligibility for tax credits. Gross premium means the plan’s price before credits; net premium means what the enrollee pays after applicable credits. The CoverME.gov explanation of Marketplace costs notes that geography, age, and household composition affect costs.
For an individual estimate, use the official Marketplace serving your state and enter your current household and income information. Compare the quoted amount after credits for your current plan with the cost of other available plans; a lowest-cost option is not necessarily the same plan or coverage.
Independent reader supportYour contribution helps us test, update, and keep practical guides available for everyone.What is—and is not—known about Greene’s family claim
The contemporaneous statements establish what Greene said, but the available public sources do not establish the actual 2026 premium paid by her adult children, their plan details, or a documented comparison of their 2025 and 2026 bills. Her claim about their premiums should therefore remain attributed to her rather than presented as independently verified household billing data.
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