The Australian Department of Industry, Science and Resources forecasts a sharp lithium-price rebound in 2026, followed by easing prices through 2031. Its September 2026 outlook puts average 2026 spodumene at around US$2,410 per tonne and projects lithium hydroxide at US$21,100 per tonne. By 2031, it projects around US$1,500 per tonne for spodumene and US$16,200 per tonne for lithium hydroxide, in real 2026 dollars. These are different products and price series, not one universal “lithium price.”
What is the lithium price forecast for 2026 and 2031?
The latest official baseline cited here is Australia’s Department of Industry, Science and Resources Resources and Energy Quarterly: September 2026. It expects prices to remain elevated in the near term as inventories rebuild, then moderate from 2027. The figures below are forecasts, not guaranteed future market prices.
| Product and measure | 2026 forecast | 2031 projection | Basis |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spodumene | Around US$2,410 per tonne | Around US$1,500 per tonne | Department forecast; the figures are for the named spodumene series, not a general lithium price. |
| Lithium hydroxide | US$21,100 per tonne | US$16,200 per tonne | Department projection; the 2031 figure is in real terms, with 2026 as the base year. |
Australia’s September 2026 Resources and Energy Quarterly reports the forecast series. Do not compare the spodumene and hydroxide values as though they were interchangeable: they are different products at different points in the supply chain.
Why did lithium prices rebound in 2026?
The Department says spodumene prices more than tripled and lithium hydroxide prices more than doubled year over year in the first half of 2026. It attributes the recovery to supply disruptions in China and Zimbabwe, alongside strong demand across the battery supply chain. Inventory rebuilding is part of the near-term outlook: it can keep prices elevated even as the longer-run forecast slopes down.
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Why can prices ease even as demand grows?
The Department forecasts global lithium demand growth of more than 11% annually through 2031, compared with supply growth of around 7.3% annually. It also forecasts Australian mine output growth of around 8.8% per year over that period. Those growth rates do not, by themselves, tell whether the market is in deficit in every year: a market can start with excess supply, draw down or rebuild inventories, and move toward balance over time.
In the Department’s baseline, near-term oversupply gradually moves toward balance by the end of the outlook. Faster demand growth is supportive, but it does not erase current inventories or guarantee immediate scarcity. Mine disruptions, project ramp-ups, demand realization and stock levels all affect the path.
What does the longer-term outlook say?
The International Energy Agency’s 2026 Global Critical Minerals Outlook says lithium prices more than doubled amid energy-storage demand and constrained supply. Its analysis of announced projects still finds lithium supply deficits through 2035, but the projected gaps have narrowed as more projects are expected to come online. This is a project-pipeline and scenario assessment, not a promise of a deficit in every year or a direct price target.
The IEA’s 2025 scenario figures provide demand context rather than a price forecast. In its Stated Policies Scenario (STEPS), total lithium demand is 205 kt in 2024, 455 kt in 2030 and 928 kt in 2040; primary supply requirements are 198 kt, 440 kt and 846 kt for those same years. These are scenario quantities, not observations of future demand or prices. See the IEA’s 2025 lithium analysis for the scenario framing.
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A quoted “lithium price” is incomplete unless it identifies what is being priced and how. Before comparing forecasts, check these details:
- Product: spodumene concentrate, lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide are distinct products; concentrate grade also matters.
- Market and location: Australian FOB spodumene, Chinese CIF carbonate and Chinese FOB hydroxide are different benchmark series.
- Time measure: a spot observation is not an annual average, a contract price or a year-end forecast.
- Currency and inflation basis: note the currency per tonne and whether the value is nominal or real. For a real forecast, record its base year.
- Horizon and scenario: a 2026 point forecast cannot be directly equated with a 2031 projection or a 2035 project-pipeline scenario.
- Supply-demand assumptions: inventory rebuilding, disruption duration, new mine schedules, recycling, EV sales and stationary battery storage can change the outlook.
The sources cited here do not provide one harmonized, probability-weighted benchmark forecast across publishers. Normalize the product, location, price basis, horizon and scenario before treating two numbers as a disagreement.
Independent reader supportYour contribution helps us test, update, and keep practical guides available for everyone.What recent historical prices show—and what they do not
The USGS Mineral Commodity Summaries 2026 offers historical context, not a current forward forecast. It reports that 2025 oversupply concerns kept prices low in the first half, while EV sales growth in China and Europe and battery energy-storage demand supported increases in the second half. Its figures refer to different markets and bases:
- Chinese CIF spot lithium carbonate rose from about US$9,300 per tonne in January 2025 to about US$10,300 in November.
- Chinese FOB spot lithium hydroxide rose from about US$10,300 per tonne in January 2025 to about US$11,200 in November.
- Australian FOB spodumene with 6% lithium oxide rose from about US$800 per tonne in January 2025 to about US$970 in November.
- The fixed-contract annual average US lithium carbonate price was US$9,000 per tonne in 2025, down 31% from 2024.
These values are not directly comparable with one another or with the Department’s forecast series. The USGS 2026 lithium summary is the source for this historical context.
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The Department’s figures are point forecasts; the cited material does not provide calibrated probability ranges around them. Treat the 2031 values as conditional baseline projections, not prices that are certain to occur. A longer-term supply gap in an IEA project-pipeline scenario does not cancel the Department’s nearer-term oversupply baseline: the sources use different horizons and analytical frames.
Key uncertainties include the persistence of mine disruptions, whether announced projects start and ramp on schedule, how quickly inventories rebuild, and how battery demand develops. Policy and trade changes may also alter supply or demand. A forecast can therefore be directionally useful without functioning as a precise price target.
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