Kalshi and Polymarket are not a simple one-to-one comparison: “Polymarket” can mean a larger offshore exchange that says it blocks U.S. users or a separate, smaller CFTC-approved exchange for U.S. customers. Before comparing markets, fees or funding, confirm which Polymarket product you mean and whether you are eligible to use it. For either service, compare the specific contract’s rules, costs and trading conditions—not just the platform name.
First, identify which Polymarket you mean
Kalshi is described by the Congressional Research Service (CRS) as a CFTC-regulated exchange. CRS distinguishes it from two Polymarket products: the larger offshore exchange, which CRS says claims to block U.S. users, and a separate, smaller CFTC-approved exchange available to U.S. customers. That distinction matters because access, funding, rules and market selection can vary by product. CRS’s March 20, 2026 report and Covers’ 2026 comparison both treat the U.S. and global Polymarket products separately.
| Comparison point | Kalshi | Polymarket |
|---|---|---|
| Product identity | CRS describes Kalshi as a CFTC-regulated exchange. CRS, March 20, 2026 | CRS describes a larger offshore exchange that claims to block U.S. users, as well as a separate, smaller CFTC-approved exchange for U.S. customers. CRS, March 20, 2026 |
| U.S. eligibility | Current state-by-state eligibility: not stated in the cited comparison sources; check current product terms before depositing. Covers, 2026 | Depends on whether you mean the U.S. exchange or global product; a complete current state-by-state matrix is not stated in the cited sources. Check current eligibility and terms for the specific product. Covers, 2026 |
| Fees and funding costs | Current all-in rates for a comparable trade: not stated in the cited sources. Check the applicable fee schedule and funding terms. CFTC consumer guidance | Current all-in rates for a comparable trade: not stated in the cited sources; they may depend on the product and transaction. Check the applicable fee schedule and funding terms. Covers, 2026 |
| Markets and contract rules | Listings and rules depend on the specific contract. Kalshi publishes a banned-markets policy, but it is a company policy statement, not a complete comparison of current listings. Kalshi, Banned markets | Listings and rules depend on the product and specific contract; the cited sources do not establish one inventory or one set of rules for every Polymarket product. CRS, March 20, 2026 |
The table is a starting point, not a substitute for checking the terms in force when you trade. A label such as “Polymarket” alone does not tell you which exchange, eligibility rules, funding options or contract terms apply.
Access and eligibility come before platform preference
Before creating an account or moving money, verify the exact product, your location’s eligibility, and the current account and funding terms. Broad descriptions of federal regulation do not establish that a service is available in every state. CRS reports ongoing state challenges to federal jurisdiction over some event contracts, and the cited comparison does not provide a complete, current state-by-state eligibility list. The legal and availability picture can change.
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- Confirm whether the Polymarket product is the U.S. exchange or the global exchange.
- Check whether the service currently accepts customers in your location and what verification it requires.
- Review supported deposit and withdrawal methods, any limits, processing terms and related costs for that product.
- Do not assume an account or funding method available on one Polymarket product also applies to the other.
Market selection: compare actual listings, not brand reputations
Listings are not fixed, and different products may offer different contracts. CRS’s February 2026 snapshot reported sports as the largest event-contract category by volume. In that report-period snapshot, roughly 87% of Kalshi’s $39.7 billion traded in the prior year was sports, while sports represented 38% of Polymarket’s $36.2 billion traded in the prior year. CRS also identified cryptocurrency, culture and politics among large non-sports categories. These are historical estimates for the report period, not current market shares or a promise that a particular event is listed today. CRS, March 20, 2026
To compare selection fairly, search for the same event and question on the specific products you can use. Then check whether the wording, outcome options, closing time and settlement source actually match. A superficially similar market may not represent the same contract.
Fees: calculate the cost for the trade you would make
The available sources do not establish current, official, apples-to-apples all-in fee rates for Kalshi and every Polymarket product. Avoid relying on a headline fee figure unless it is the current official schedule for the precise product and contract. The cost of a trade can depend on the applicable contract fee, funding method and execution; check each relevant schedule and terms rather than assuming one rate covers everything.
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The CFTC advises prediction-market customers to look for clear information about “risks and obligations, commissions, fees, penalties, or other costs associated with any trade.” CFTC, Understanding Prediction Markets and Event Contracts
Liquidity and spreads affect the price you can actually get
A displayed market price is not necessarily the price at which you can buy or sell your desired quantity. Compare the bid and ask—the prices available to sell and buy—and how much is available at each price. A wider gap between them, or limited depth, can make entering or exiting a position more costly. Covers recommends comparing liquidity and spreads, but markets on separate venues may have different terms and settlement rules. Covers, 2026
- Compare the same event, outcome and approximate time on each eligible product.
- Check available size at the quoted prices, not only the latest trade or headline price.
- Consider whether you may need to exit before settlement; an exit depends on a willing counterparty and the price then available.
Event-contract prices emerge through buying and selling. In a simple binary contract, traders often read a price as the market’s implied probability, but it is not a guarantee or a reliable forecast by itself. Fees, spread, liquidity and the contract’s settlement terms all affect what the price means for a customer. CRS, March 20, 2026
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Read the contract rules and settlement procedure
Before trading, read the full market wording and the terms that determine when and how it resolves. The CFTC says customers should have transparent contract terms, including how and by whom settlement determinations are made. The event description alone may not explain every condition that determines the outcome. CFTC consumer guidance
- Identify the exact event, outcome definitions and any exceptions.
- Check the named data source or other basis used to determine the result.
- Read how the exchange handles corrections, delays, ambiguous outcomes or disputes.
- Check when trading closes and whether you can trade out before settlement; an early exit occurs at the market price then available, if there is sufficient liquidity.
The CFTC describes event contracts as typically structured as swaps and outlines exchange obligations and customer considerations in its consumer guidance. Those general descriptions do not replace the rules for the individual market. CFTC, Understanding Prediction Markets and Event Contracts
Do these 3 things before closing this tab:
1Repair Windows errors before they cause bigger problems2Fix the driver behind crashes, sound loss and screen glitches3Clear out junk files and repair common Windows errorsHow to make a practical comparison
- Establish eligibility. Confirm the exact exchange and product, your location’s current rules, and the relevant account terms.
- Choose one real contract. Find the same event and outcome on each product you can access; compare wording and settlement rules before treating the listings as equivalent.
- Estimate your full transaction cost. Check the current official fee schedule for the contract and product, plus funding-related charges that apply to your method.
- Inspect execution conditions. Compare bid-ask spreads and depth for the amount you plan to trade, and consider the price available if you need to exit early.
- Decide whether the risk fits. Understand the contract’s obligations and possible loss before placing an order; a price that looks like a probability is not a promise of the outcome.
What market size figures do—and do not—tell you
KPMG estimated that combined Kalshi and Polymarket trading volume exceeded $40 billion in 2025, compared with roughly $9 billion in 2024. Those are historical industry estimates in KPMG’s 2026 report, not current live volume, a measure of liquidity in a specific market, or a guarantee that a customer can execute at a particular price. KPMG, Prediction markets: Paths to entry, 2026
So, which one should you choose?
There is no universal winner based on the available evidence. Start with the product you are eligible to use, then compare the specific contract, current costs, execution conditions and settlement procedure. Kalshi and Polymarket may each suit a reader’s needs for a particular market, but a platform-level reputation or historical volume figure cannot replace that contract-by-contract check.
Quick Recap
Product prices and availability are accurate as of the date/time indicated and are subject to change. Any price and availability information displayed on Amazon at the time of purchase will apply.
