The July 10, 2026 USDA WASDE made its sharpest change to corn: estimated 2025/26 ending stocks fell 125 million bushels to 2.020 billion, while projected 2026/27 stocks dropped 170 million from June to 1.790 billion. New-crop corn production edged higher, but stronger exports and lower beginning stocks more than offset the added supply. Soybean and wheat balances moved differently, so the report was not a uniform signal across grains.
What the July WASDE changed
The World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE), prepared monthly by USDA’s World Agricultural Outlook Board, forecasts supply and use for major U.S. and global crops. The July edition, WASDE-673, was released July 10, 2026. Its figures were forecasts and estimates at that date, not final measurements; later monthly reports supersede them. USDA’s WASDE report and USDA’s ESMIS archive provide the report and publication context.
The main trade surprise, as described in contemporaneous reporting that used Bloomberg expectation figures, was the corn balance sheet. USDA’s cuts to old- and new-crop corn stocks were larger than pre-report expectations. Those expectation comparisons are secondary reporting, not USDA forecasts. Agriculture.com’s report provides that comparison.
Why corn ending stocks fell
Old crop: 2025/26
“Old crop” means previously harvested and stored supplies; marketing-year boundaries differ by commodity. For 2025/26 corn, USDA raised feed and residual use by 150 million bushels and reduced corn used for ethanol by 25 million. The net change in these use estimates helped drive the 125-million-bushel reduction in estimated ending stocks, to 2.020 billion bushels. This is an estimate for the marketing year, rather than a final stock count. USDA WASDE-673.
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New crop: 2026/27
USDA kept the projected yield at 183.0 bushels per acre and raised production by 5 million bushels, to 16.000 billion. At the same time, it raised exports by 50 million bushels. With lower beginning stocks carrying forward from the old-crop balance and more exports projected, the agency reduced new-crop ending stocks by 170 million bushels from June to 1.790 billion. The season-average farm price projection stayed at $4.40 per bushel. USDA summarized the outlook as “smaller supplies, greater exports, and reduced ending stocks.” USDA WASDE-673.
The key distinction is that a larger production estimate did not mean a larger carryout: ending stocks reflect the balance of supply and projected use, including beginning stocks, production, imports, and demand. On July’s figures, the increase in production was outweighed by the tighter starting balance and higher exports.
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How soybeans and wheat differed
| Crop and marketing year | July balance-sheet change | Trade comparison |
|---|---|---|
| Corn, 2025/26 (old crop) | Estimated ending stocks fell 125 million bushels to 2.020 billion. | Contemporaneous reporting said the corn stock changes were more bearish than expected? No: the cuts were larger than expectations, as reported using Bloomberg expectation figures. |
| Corn, 2026/27 (new crop) | Projected ending stocks fell 170 million bushels from June to 1.790 billion; production rose 5 million to 16.000 billion, with exports up 50 million. | Agriculture.com’s Bloomberg-based comparison described the corn cuts as larger than expected. |
| Soybeans, 2025/26 (old crop) | Estimated ending stocks fell 10 million bushels to 330 million. | Not stated in the cited trade-expectation comparison. |
| Soybeans, 2026/27 (new crop) | Production rose 40 million bushels to 4.475 billion on higher harvested area; yield stayed at 53.0 bushels per acre. Higher exports offset higher supply, leaving ending stocks unchanged at 310 million. | Not stated in the cited trade-expectation comparison. |
| Wheat, 2026/27 | Projected ending stocks fell 22 million bushels from June to 722 million. Production was projected at 1.536 billion bushels, which USDA described as the lowest U.S. wheat production since 1970/71. | A contemporaneous summary said wheat stocks were slightly above trade expectations, despite the month-over-month reduction. |
Figures in the table are USDA estimates or projections for the July 2026 report unless a trade comparison is explicitly attributed to secondary reporting. Sources: USDA WASDE-673, Agriculture.com, and University of Arkansas Division of Agriculture.
Globally, USDA lowered projected 2026/27 corn ending stocks by 6.0 million metric tons to 275.3 million metric tons. Projected global wheat ending stocks declined from 275.42 million metric tons in June to 272.84 million in July. These are forecast balances, not final inventories. USDA WASDE-673.
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What trade expected—and what the report did not say
A crop can have lower projected stocks than the prior month without delivering a surprise to traders: markets compare a release with expectations as well as with the previous estimate. Agriculture.com reported that corn’s stock reductions exceeded expectations, citing Bloomberg expectation figures. The same contemporaneous summary said wheat stocks were slightly above expectations, so the wheat cut from June should not be treated by itself as a bullish surprise. Agriculture.com.
For soybeans, the cited report materials establish the production, use, and stock revisions but do not provide a comparable trade-surprise figure. The July balance-sheet changes alone therefore do not establish that soybean estimates beat or missed expectations.
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How futures reacted on July 10
The University of Arkansas Division of Agriculture reported that December corn futures and November soybean futures each closed 9 cents higher on July 10, 2026. Iowa Farm Bureau also described corn futures rising after the report’s release. These are observations about that trading day and intraday period; they do not prove the WASDE caused the moves or show whether gains persisted afterward. University of Arkansas Division of Agriculture and Iowa Farm Bureau.
How to use the July figures now
As of October 2026, July’s WASDE is a dated forecast update, not the latest available balance sheet. Use it to understand what changed at the time and what traders were reacting to—not as a current estimate of supply, a guarantee about prices, or a standalone buy-or-sell signal. Consult the USDA archive for subsequent monthly reports and compare revisions within the same crop year and marketing-year basis.
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