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USDA’s January 12, 2026 WASDE raised its 2025/26 U.S. corn yield, harvested-area and production estimates, and projected higher corn ending stocks. For soybeans, yield stayed at 53.0 bushels per acre and production edged up, while projected ending stocks rose by 60 million bushels. These are estimates and marketing-year forecasts in WASDE-667, not final crop outcomes.
What changed in the January 2026 WASDE?
Compared with its December 2025 estimates, USDA made a substantial upward revision to the 2025/26 corn balance sheet. The soybean revision was smaller on production but notable for projected ending stocks. The report was released January 12, 2026; its figures below describe USDA’s estimates and projections at that time.
| 2025/26 estimate or forecast | December 2025 | January 2026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corn yield per harvested acre | 186.0 bushels | 186.5 bushels | +0.5 bushel |
| Corn harvested area | 90.0 million acres | 91.3 million acres | +1.3 million acres |
| Corn production | 16.752 billion bushels | 17.021 billion bushels | +269 million bushels |
| Corn projected ending stocks | 2.029 billion bushels | 2.227 billion bushels | +198 million bushels |
| Soybean yield per acre | 53.0 bushels | 53.0 bushels | No change |
| Soybean production | 4.255 billion bushels | 4.262 billion bushels | +7 million bushels |
| Soybean projected ending stocks | 290 million bushels | 350 million bushels | +60 million bushels |
All comparisons are USDA’s December and January 2025/26 estimates or forecasts in WASDE-667. The standout contrast is that corn’s area and yield both increased, lifting production substantially; soybean yield did not rise, and its production estimate changed only slightly.
Why did USDA raise its corn estimate?
The corn production revision reflected both more harvested area and a higher yield estimate. USDA moved harvested area from 90.0 million to 91.3 million acres and yield from 186.0 to 186.5 bushels per harvested acre. Together, those changes raised projected 2025/26 production by 269 million bushels, to 17.021 billion.
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USDA Economic Research Service says the January update incorporated two National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) publications released January 12: the Crop Production Summary, which updated the harvest estimate, and the Grain Stocks report, which provided inventory data as of December 1, 2025 and information used to derive first-quarter disappearance. ERS reports that NASS based updated production estimates on operator-reported surveys conducted December 4–27, 2025, with about 73,000 farmers in the sample. It also describes objective-yield field surveys and acreage information from Farm Service Agency and Risk Management Agency reporting. These are methodological details reported by ERS; they should not be read as saying every data source or sample detail applies identically to each crop measure. See USDA ERS, Feed Outlook: January 2026.
Why did projected ending stocks rise?
USDA projected 2025/26 corn ending stocks of 2.227 billion bushels in January, 198 million more than in December. Soybean ending stocks were projected at 350 million bushels, up 60 million. Ending stocks are the balance-sheet projection for supplies remaining at the end of the marketing year after projected use; they are not a count of grain physically in storage on the report date.
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That distinction matters because the January report also drew on a separate observation: NASS reported 13.3 billion bushels of corn in all positions on December 1, 2025, 10% more than on December 1, 2024. ERS also said September–November 2025 corn disappearance was 5.3 billion bushels, the highest for any quarter on record. Those inventory and use measures provide context for USDA’s supply-and-use outlook, but neither figure is the same measure as WASDE’s projected marketing-year ending stocks. The December 1 inventory and quarterly disappearance figures are reported in USDA ERS’s January 2026 Feed Outlook.
What did the report project for farm prices?
WASDE’s January 2026 season-average farm price forecasts moved in different directions: corn increased to $4.10 per bushel from $4.00 in December, while soybeans fell to $10.20 from $10.50. These are USDA forecasts for the 2025/26 marketing year, not guaranteed prices for a particular farmer or predictions of a specific futures contract. A national supply-and-use outlook is one input into market conditions, not a direct forecast of futures prices or an individual farm’s selling price.
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What WASDE does—and what January’s figures do not mean
The World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report is prepared and released monthly by USDA’s World Agricultural Outlook Board. USDA describes it as providing annual supply-and-use forecasts for U.S. and world wheat, rice, coarse grains, oilseeds and cotton, as well as U.S. projections for sugar, meat, poultry, eggs and milk and Mexico’s sugar outlook. Interagency Commodity Estimates Committees compile and interpret information from USDA and other domestic and international sources. The report’s monthly forecasts can change as new information becomes available. See the USDA WASDE publication page.
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- The January corn and soybean figures are the estimates and forecasts published on January 12, 2026; later WASDE reports may revise them.
- A higher projected ending-stock figure does not mean that exact amount was already observed in storage on January 12.
- A higher corn production estimate or larger projected stocks can inform market analysis, but WASDE alone does not determine futures prices or a producer’s marketing decision.
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