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Not necessarily. “Only getting started” was a bearish framing in a Futurism article published January 30, 2026—not a settled fact or a consensus forecast. The analysts quoted then discussed possible declines toward $70,000 or $75,000, but their comments had different time horizons and one also anticipated a rebound. By October 6, CoinDesk reported Bitcoin at $85,453, still well below its 2025 record. That later snapshot adds context; it does not settle what happens next.
What the January 2026 forecasts actually said
Futurism reported that Bitcoin had touched a two-month low just above $81,000 before recovering to about $84,000 on the afternoon of Friday, January 30, 2026. Those are historical prices reported at the time, not current quotes. The article gathered several individual bearish views, rather than documenting a shared forecast.
| Analyst and attribution | Downside view | Horizon or recovery case |
|---|---|---|
| Russell Thompson, Hilbert Group chief investment officer; Futurism reported that he told CoinDesk the technical levels had been taken out and he saw little support | As low as $70,000 | No specific forecast horizon or recovery target was stated in Futurism’s account. He characterized buying the dip as a “general risk move.” |
| Matt Mena, crypto research strategist, as identified by Futurism | As low as $75,000 | He also expected a return to $100,000 by quarter-end. Futurism printed the target as “$100,00,” an apparent typo, so the intended figure cannot be confirmed from that article alone. |
| Markus Thielen, founder of 10x Research, as quoted in Futurism’s account of a separate CoinDesk story | No specific price target stated | He described a bearish market interpretation of Kevin Warsh’s influence, citing monetary discipline, higher real rates and reduced liquidity. |
| Adam McCarthy, Kaiko research analyst, as quoted by Futurism | He said he would not be surprised to see Bitcoin trade in the $70,000 range soon | No recovery target or more precise horizon stated. |
The figures are attributed opinions, not guaranteed outcomes, independently verified forecasts or evidence that analysts as a group agreed. The same January Futurism article also reported, citing Bloomberg, that the top 12 Bitcoin ETFs had experienced three consecutive months of net outflows. That is a dated claim about the period discussed then, not an indication of October fund flows.
What later market data adds—and what it cannot tell you
CoinDesk reported Bitcoin at $85,453 on October 6, 2026, 32% below a record above $126,000 set on October 6, 2025. This snapshot came after the January predictions: it places the $70,000 and $75,000 downside scenarios below the reported October price, but does not show whether either target will be reached later.
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CoinDesk also compared the 32% one-year decline with drops of 70%–82% one year after earlier cycle peaks. A historical comparison can help describe how this drawdown differs from those examples; it cannot rule out a larger decline or establish that Bitcoin must follow a past cycle.
In an October 6 outlook, investment firm 21Shares said Bitcoin closed September up 6.2% and identified $81,000 support, the 30-year Treasury yield and continued ETF demand as variables to watch in the fourth quarter. That is the firm’s market perspective, not proof that $81,000 will hold or that a particular scenario will prevail.
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Why analysts can disagree about Bitcoin’s direction
The January comments focused on different things. Thompson and McCarthy described downside possibilities near $70,000; Mena paired a lower target with an expected recovery; Thielen explained why some market participants might view a more influential Warsh as negative for crypto. A price target, a conditional market explanation and a forecast that includes a rebound are not interchangeable claims.
Bitcoin’s future price is uncertain. Neither the analysts’ quoted views nor later market snapshots establish a reliable floor, a deadline for a decline or a guaranteed recovery. Treat support levels and cycle comparisons as context for assessing scenarios, not as promises.
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Is buying Bitcoin during a crash safe?
No price decline makes Bitcoin safe to buy. A lower entry price may appeal to an investor who believes in a future recovery, but the asset can fall further, and the January article itself framed buying the dip as a risk-taking move. The forecasts covered here do not assess any individual’s finances, risk tolerance or ability to withstand losses, and they are not personal investment advice.
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- Consider whether you could tolerate losing a substantial part of the money invested without disrupting essential expenses or near-term plans.
- Do not treat a published analyst target or an apparent support level as a guarantee that losses will stop there.
- Decide in advance how much risk you are willing to take, rather than making a purchase solely because the price has fallen.
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