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1Fix the driver behind crashes, sound loss and screen glitches2Clear out junk files and repair common Windows errors3Scan for outdated or missing drivers - takes under a minuteFertilizer trade remains under strain: the 18 September 2026 IFPRI/CGIAR snapshot reported that monitored shipping through the Strait of Hormuz had fallen back to near zero after hostilities resumed in mid-July. Yet the disruption has not translated one-for-one into global export losses: suppliers outside the Gulf partly offset the shortfall, and global nitrogen and phosphate exports were down about 9%. Prices and availability vary by product, and the latest figures below are dated reports—not live market quotes.
Why does the Strait of Hormuz matter for fertilizer?
The Strait is a key maritime route for fertilizer-related trade from the Gulf. When conflict disrupts traffic, shipments can be delayed or suspended. The shock also travels through energy costs: energy is important to agricultural inputs, so higher energy and input costs can add pressure even where fertilizer is sourced elsewhere.
In its 18 September 2026 assessment, IFPRI researchers Joseph Glauber and Shawn Arita, published by CGIAR, reported that global nitrogen and phosphate exports had fallen by about 9%. Exporters beyond the Gulf, including China and the United States, partly compensated for lost supply. That offset softened the effect on total exports; it did not restore normal shipping through Hormuz.
IFPRI’s Rob Vos, in a 2026 article published by CGIAR, estimated that 3.9 million tonnes of Middle Eastern urea exports had been suspended since the end of February 2026. The figure describes suspended exports, not a total global shortage.
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Which fertilizers are affected?
The disruption does not affect every fertilizer in the same way. The September IFPRI/CGIAR snapshot distinguishes between products directly affected by Gulf trade and those also pressured by energy or feedstock costs.
| Product or input | What the September 2026 assessment says | Supply-chain context |
|---|---|---|
| Urea | Prices had retreated from earlier peaks. | Middle Eastern urea exports were among the shipments disrupted; alternative suppliers partly offset the wider trade impact. IFPRI/CGIAR, 18 September 2026. |
| Ammonia | Prices had also eased from earlier peaks. | A nitrogen product exposed to fertilizer trade and energy-market pressures. IFPRI/CGIAR, 18 September 2026. |
| Phosphate | Supply remained tight and prices remained high. | Global phosphate exports were part of the roughly 9% decline in combined nitrogen and phosphate exports. IFPRI/CGIAR, 18 September 2026. |
| Sulfur | Shortages remained a constraint. | A supply bottleneck identified in the September IFPRI/CGIAR assessment; the cited figures do not provide a global sulfur shortage total. |
Have fertilizer prices gone up or come back down?
Both descriptions fit different points in the timeline. Urea rose sharply after the effective closure of the Strait at the end of February 2026, then fell from its spring peak. That does not mean all fertilizer prices returned to earlier levels or that current prices are known from these dated figures.
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| Period | Reported urea price or movement | Attribution and qualification |
|---|---|---|
| Before the rise | Around US$400 per metric ton | WTO Secretariat series published in 2026; this is the series’ pre-rise level. |
| April 2026 | More than US$850 per metric ton | WTO Secretariat series published in 2026; an April peak, not a current quote. |
| June 2026 | US$453 per metric ton | WTO Secretariat series published in 2026, with data through June; not a September or October quote. |
Separately, IFPRI’s Rob Vos reported that urea prices roughly doubled in the weeks after the effective Strait closure at the end of February and had softened somewhat by May. The September IFPRI/CGIAR assessment said urea and ammonia had retreated from earlier peaks, while phosphate remained tight and expensive. The available figures do not establish a single current price for every fertilizer or isolate the conflict’s contribution to each price move.
Which countries are most exposed?
FAO identifies fertilizer-import-dependent economies in Africa, Asia, and parts of the Middle East as especially exposed. Risk is greater for countries already facing food insecurity, economic fragility, or climate shocks, because disrupted imports or higher input costs leave less room to absorb a supply or price shock.
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Exposure is not determined by geography alone. Dependence on imported fertilizer, access to alternative suppliers, and whether deliveries arrive in time for local planting and application schedules all affect how disruption reaches farmers.
Could this affect the next harvest or food prices?
The timing of a shipment matters as much as its eventual price. FAO Director-General QU Dongyu warned on 7 May 2026 that a delay of even a few weeks can lead farmers to reduce fertilizer use or miss an application window. As he put it, “Agriculture operates within a crop calendar that cannot be postponed.” If farmers apply less fertilizer or skip an application, yields may be lower and later food supplies tighter.
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FAO’s May warning was a risk assessment for the second half of 2026 and into 2027, not confirmation that harvests or food supplies have already fallen. It also warned that higher energy and agricultural-input costs threaten crop yields. Whether those risks become actual production losses depends on how long disruption lasts, whether replacement supplies arrive, and when they reach farms.
For household budgets, higher fertilizer costs can contribute to food-price pressure, but the cited assessments do not quantify a resulting grocery-price increase. The disruption is one risk to supply and production costs, not a precise forecast of what consumers will pay.
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What can governments and farmers do?
FAO’s response recommendations focus on keeping inputs moving and reducing vulnerability to future shocks.
- Keep trade routes open: facilitate alternative routes and avoid export restrictions that could further constrain supply.
- Protect access: support farmers’ access to agricultural inputs and protect humanitarian supply chains.
- Coordinate and diversify: strengthen regional coordination and diversify fertilizer and energy sources.
- Build resilience: invest over the longer term in sustainable agriculture, renewable energy, fertilizer innovation, and stronger storage and logistics.
For farmers facing uncertain deliveries, the immediate constraint is local availability within the crop calendar. FAO’s recommendation to support access to inputs addresses that timing risk; the cited assessments do not offer a universal substitute fertilizer or application schedule for individual farms.
At the 7 May 2026 MED9++ ministerial meeting, FAO Director-General QU Dongyu described the broader stakes: “This is not only a geopolitical crisis, but also a disruption at the core of the global agrifood system.”
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