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Clear out junk files and repair common Windows errorsFree Scan →Fix the driver behind crashes, sound loss and screen glitchesFind Drivers →Repair Windows errors before they cause bigger problemsFix Now →ICOs can produce gains, but they are speculative, and historical averages do not show what a typical buyer is likely to earn. In studies of past offerings, some measures showed positive average returns while many offerings lost value and median longer-term performance was negative. Before committing money, work out exactly what a token gives you, how the sale works, whether the offering is legally permitted where you are, and whether you could realistically sell or recover your funds.
What you are buying in an ICO
An initial coin offering (ICO), or token sale, raises capital by issuing digital coins or tokens, often using blockchain technology. Buyers may pay with traditional currency or existing crypto assets. Promoters may describe a token as access to software, participation in a project, or exposure to its returns. Those descriptions are not a standard set of rights: the token’s terms and applicable law determine what a holder can actually do or enforce.
Read the offering terms, white paper, and roadmap to establish whether the token is a usable digital asset, an investment-like claim, or something whose rights are unclear. Look for any promise from the issuer, and identify whether you have a refund or redemption right, and what restrictions apply to transferring or reselling the token. The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) said in its 2017 investor bulletin that whether an ICO token is a security depends on the facts and circumstances of that particular offering.
Are ICOs profitable?
Some historical ICO investors saw gains, but published results vary by sample, return measure, and holding period. The figures below describe particular past samples; they are not a forecast or a current market-wide profit rate.
#1 Best Overall
| Study and sample | Reported result | What it measures |
|---|---|---|
| Paul P. Momtaz, 2020; ICOs from 2015–2018 | Mean first-day returns of 6.8%–8.2%; median first-day returns of 2.6%–3.4% | First-day return estimates varied by the return measure used in the study. |
| Paul P. Momtaz, 2020; same 2015–2018 ICO study | 39.5%–45.7% had negative first-day returns | The reported share of sampled offerings that lost value on the first day. |
| Paul P. Momtaz, 2021; cryptocurrencies issued in ICOs | Median depreciation of 30% over holding periods from one to 24 months | The study reported positive long-run mean buy-and-hold returns but negative medians, a pattern consistent with a small number of large winners lifting the average. |
| Christian Fisch and Paul P. Momtaz, 2020; 565 ventures | Median post-ICO performance from −31% to −69% across 30 to 365 trading days | The study found institutional-investor backing associated with higher performance, but median performance remained negative across the cited windows. The return definition is specific to that study. |
These results are not directly comparable: the studies use different samples, return definitions, start dates, and holding periods. A reported first-day listing return also does not establish that an ordinary buyer could obtain an allocation at the offering price or sell at the observed price after fees, lockups, and liquidity constraints. No authoritative market-wide ICO profit rate for 2026 is established here, so older samples should not be treated as a current expected return.
How to evaluate an ICO before investing
Use the same questions for each offering, and verify claims from sources independent of the issuer. A polished white paper, exchange presence, or celebrity endorsement is not a substitute for evidence.
1. Read the token rights and sale terms
Find out what the token lets you do, what the issuer promises, and what happens if the project misses its milestones. Check the token supply and allocation, vesting schedule, lockups, use of proceeds, resale limits, and any refund or redemption conditions. Ask whether the terms explain how funds can be recovered or tokens resold. If a material right or condition is vague, do not assume it will be granted later.
2. Check the legal basis for the sale
If the offering has a U.S. connection, determine whether the token may be a security, whether the issuer says the sale is registered or relies on an exemption, and whether any intermediary must be registered. The SEC’s 2017 investor bulletin cautions that classification depends on an offering’s facts and circumstances. “Utility token,” “crowdfunding,” “SEC compliant,” a platform listing, or an offshore location does not, by itself, establish compliance. Legal treatment varies by jurisdiction, and this article is not legal advice.
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3. Verify the people, company, and project claims
Investigate the issuer, team, promoters, and relevant firms independently. Where possible, check biographies, partnerships, and other claims against primary records. Treat unverifiable credentials, copied material, fabricated partnerships, celebrity promotion, and pressure to buy quickly as warning signs.
4. Inspect technical evidence
Find out whether the blockchain is open and public, whether the code has been published, and whether an independent cybersecurity audit exists. Review what the audit covered and when it was performed. An audit is evidence to assess, not a guarantee that the software is secure or the project honest. The SEC’s Office of Investor Education and Advocacy specifically advised investors to ask whether the blockchain is open and public, the code is published, and an independent cybersecurity audit has been conducted.
Rank #4
5. Test whether an exit is realistic
Check whether the token is listed, where it may trade, and whether resale restrictions apply. Consider whether a trading platform operates legally in the jurisdiction relevant to you and whether the market has enough liquidity for an exit. A displayed price does not guarantee that you can sell at that price, in the amount you hold, or when you need to.
6. Plan for custody and the possibility of losing everything
Decide how you would secure the token and its access credentials. The SEC warns that virtual currencies, tokens, exchanges, and wallet services can be affected by fraud, technical failures, hacks, or malware. A hardware cryptocurrency wallet is one possible custody tool, not a way to verify an ICO or eliminate operational risk. Recovery after a loss may be difficult, particularly when encrypted assets, cross-border transactions, or overseas intermediaries are involved. Do not invest money needed for essential expenses, and do not assume that a legal claim guarantees reimbursement.
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- Guaranteed high returns or claims of little or no risk. The SEC’s July 25, 2017 investor bulletin says: “Be wary of anyone who promises that you will receive a high rate of return on your investment, with little or no risk.”
- Unsolicited pitches, urgency, or pressure to buy before you can check the claims.
- Opaque explanations, jargon-heavy promises, or unclear token rights and sale terms.
- Unlicensed sellers or unsupported claims of regulatory approval.
- Unverifiable team credentials, partnerships, or technical assurances.
A single warning sign does not establish fraud, but it is a reason to pause and verify rather than rely on the promoter’s assurances.
Does an exchange-hosted sale mean an ICO is vetted?
No. An initial exchange offering (IEO) is presented through a trading platform, but the platform’s participation or claimed vetting does not prove the sale is safe or legally compliant. In a January 2020 alert, the SEC said IEOs resemble ICOs and that securities-law questions still depend on the facts and circumstances. Offshore platform use can also make issuer and transaction information, legal remedies, and collection of judgments more uncertain.
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