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India’s average five-year SIP return was 8.4% in a Mint-reported comparison of 120 rolling monthly investment windows from October 2016 to September 2026. That was below the Nasdaq-100’s 19.1% and the S&P 500’s 13.7%, but above every other non-US market listed. The figures are historical averages expressed in US dollars—not rupee returns, a return earned by every Indian mutual fund, or a forecast.
What the 8.4% figure measures
Mint reported the comparison on October 5, 2026, attributing it to an analysis shared on X by Niranjan Avasthi, president at Edelweiss Asset Management. The study covered 10 markets and 120 monthly rolling five-year SIP periods spanning October 2016 through September 2026. Returns were expressed in US dollars, and the return measure named was XIRR. Mint’s report
A rolling window shifts its starting month forward over time. Looking at many such five-year periods shows how the reported result varied across different entry dates, rather than relying on a single chosen start date. The 8.4% is the average across the India windows in this particular comparison; it is not a universal rate for Indian SIPs.
The accessible report does not provide the full underlying dataset, market-by-market index definitions, detailed cash-flow dates or complete calculation specification. The figures should therefore be read as values reported by Mint from the shared analysis, not as an independently replicated calculation.
How the markets compared
Mint reported the following average SIP returns for the comparison. The stated dollar basis applies to the comparison; the report does not provide a complete outcome distribution for every market.
| Market or index | Reported average SIP return |
|---|---|
| Nasdaq-100 | 19.1% average XIRR |
| S&P 500 | 13.7% average XIRR |
| India | 8.4% average XIRR |
| France | 7.1% average return |
| Brazil | 4.6% average return |
| Germany | 4.1% average return |
| South Korea | 3.0% average return |
| China A-shares | 2.9% average return |
| Hong Kong | 2.2% average return |
| South Africa | 2.0% average return |
India ranked behind the two US indices and ahead of the other seven listed markets. This is a comparison of reported averages, not a complete ranking of market risk: Mint’s accessible report does not publish comparable positive-window shares or best-and-worst results for every market. Mint’s figures and comparison
What India’s range of outcomes adds
The average alone hides how individual five-year windows performed. In Mint’s account, 98% of India’s 120 windows were positive, 87% fell in the 6%–12% annualised range, and outcomes ranged from a best of 13% to a worst of -0.9%. Thus, even in a sample where almost all windows gained, at least one five-year result was negative.
These figures describe historical windows in the reported sample. They do not establish the probability that a future five-year SIP will be positive, nor do they show that an individual investor would have earned the average. Investor outcomes depend on the fund or index tracked, contribution and cash-flow details, costs, taxes and currency exposure.
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Other published figures refer to different analyses and should not be treated as alternative calculations of the same 8.4% dataset.
- DSP Mutual Fund, data through April 2026: Its separate analysis covers 16 countries over 30 years, using the respective countries’ major indices and data attributed to Bloomberg and DSP. DSP reports 12% Indian SIP returns and 5% real returns, and says 74% of India’s rolling five-year windows returned more than 8%. DSP’s “Structure Over Sentiment”
- Moneycontrol, May 6, 2026: Its account of a separate DSP report describes index-level SIP returns across developed and emerging economies over three decades. It reports India’s five-year outcomes ranged approximately from -11% to 46%, with an average around 13%. Moneycontrol’s report
The horizons, samples and reported contexts differ from Mint’s October 2016–September 2026 dollar comparison. The accessible Mint account does not disclose enough detail to reconcile every methodological difference, so these averages should not be blended or read as a direct contradiction.
Independent reader supportYour contribution helps us test, update, and keep practical guides available for everyone.What an SIP can—and cannot—do
A systematic investment plan (SIP) puts contributions into an investment at regular intervals. By spreading purchases across market levels, it can reduce dependence on choosing one entry date and help establish a consistent investing habit. It cannot ensure a gain, eliminate market risk or prevent losses if the underlying market performs poorly or remains stagnant. As Avasthi put it in a statement quoted by Mint: “The lesson is that an SIP is a discipline, not a guarantee.”
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