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The 6.4% figure was a forecast, not India’s final growth result for FY 2024–25. In its First Advance Estimates released on 7 January 2025, the National Statistics Office (NSO) estimated that real GDP would grow 6.4%, down from 8.2% in FY 2023–24. Later official estimates put FY 2024–25 real GDP growth at 6.5%.
What did the 6.4% estimate measure?
The NSO, part of the Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation (MoSPI), issued the First Advance Estimates on 7 January 2025. It estimated real GDP growth of 6.4% for India’s fiscal year 2024–25, compared with 8.2% for FY 2023–24 in that release. The “four-year low” description belonged to that January 2025 comparison; it should not be read as a current forecast or as a final annual result.
Real GDP adjusts for price changes. The January estimate valued FY 2024–25 real GDP at ₹184.88 lakh crore in constant 2011–12 prices. The same release estimated nominal GDP—measured at current prices—at ₹324.11 lakh crore, with nominal growth of 9.7%. These are values from the January 2025 estimate vintage, not later revised levels. NSO/MoSPI First Advance Estimates, 7 January 2025.
Why was the estimate revised?
Advance estimates are prepared before all data for the year are available. MoSPI says it extrapolates the previous financial year’s estimates using relevant indicators of current sector performance. As more complete data arrive, estimates can change.
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MoSPI’s Second Advance Estimate, released on 28 February 2025, put FY 2024–25 real GDP growth at 6.5%. Its Provisional Estimate, released on 30 May 2025, also reported 6.5%. That is a revision of one-tenth of a percentage point from January’s 6.4% estimate, not a contradiction between a forecast and a final result. The May release estimated nominal GDP growth at 9.8%. NSO/MoSPI Second Advance Estimates, 28 February 2025 and MoSPI Provisional Estimates, 30 May 2025.
How to read the headline alongside other GDP figures
India’s GDP figures are meaningful only when the measure, period, price basis and estimate vintage are clear. The January 2025 release also reported gross value added (GVA), which measures value added by producers and is not interchangeable with GDP.
| Figure | What it describes |
|---|---|
| 6.4% | Real GDP growth for FY 2024–25 in the NSO First Advance Estimate released 7 January 2025. |
| 8.2% | Real GDP growth for FY 2023–24, the comparison value used in that January 2025 release. |
| 9.7% | Nominal GDP growth for FY 2024–25 in the January 2025 First Advance Estimate. |
| 6.4% | Real GVA growth for FY 2024–25 in the January 2025 First Advance Estimate; this is not the GDP growth figure. |
| 6.5% | Real GDP growth for FY 2024–25 in both the February 2025 Second Advance Estimate and May 2025 Provisional Estimate. |
The 6.4% real GVA figure accompanied sector estimates including 8.6% growth in construction and 7.3% in financial, real estate and professional services. Agriculture and allied activities were estimated to grow 3.8%, up from 1.4% in FY 2023–24. Private final consumption expenditure at constant prices was estimated to rise 7.3%, compared with 4.0% the prior year. These are January 2025 estimates, not separate GDP growth rates. NSO/MoSPI First Advance Estimates, 7 January 2025.
Independent reader supportYour contribution helps us test, update, and keep practical guides available for everyone.What is the latest context for the old headline?
The 6.4% figure describes a specific historical estimate, not the latest official assessment of India’s growth. MoSPI’s first estimate for FY 2025–26, issued in January 2026, put growth at 7.4% against 6.5% for FY 2024–25. MoSPI also released annual and quarterly estimates on a 2022–23 base-year series in February 2026. Because a base-year change can affect historical comparisons, figures from the 2011–12 and 2022–23 series should not be compared as though they came from the same series without checking the rebased tables. NSO/MoSPI First Advance Estimates, FY 2025–26.
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