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1Clear out junk files and repair common Windows errors2Fix the driver behind crashes, sound loss and screen glitches3Repair Windows errors before they cause bigger problemsIllinois grain-farm profitability fell sharply after its 2022 peak: average operating income dropped from $339,000 per farm to a loss of $15,000 in 2024. Costs absorbed a record share of returns, and working capital declined, while debt relative to assets remained historically strong by the measure used in the Illinois analysis. These are farm-level results through 2024; USDA’s newer 2026 figures are forecasts for the U.S. farm sector as a whole, not a 2025 update for Illinois grain farms.
What changed in Illinois grain-farm finances?
A University of Illinois farmdoc Daily analysis published December 2, 2025, uses Illinois Farm Business Farm Management (FBFM) financial statements to trace grain-farm performance through 2024. Its comparable series begins in 1991; changes to FBFM statements in the 1990s limit comparisons with earlier years.
The central pattern is a steep retreat in profitability from the 2022 high, alongside a thinner liquidity cushion. Solvency weakened in 2024 but remained stronger than in several earlier points in the series. The figures below are nominal per-farm amounts, not adjusted for inflation.
| Measure | Recent high or comparison | 2024 or latest Illinois result | Historical reference |
|---|---|---|---|
| Operating income | $339,000 per farm in 2022 | -$15,000 per farm in 2024 | $92,000 per farm average, 1991–2024; 2024 was the lowest since 1990 in the comparable data |
| Operating-expense ratio | not stated (University of Illinois farmdoc Daily, 2025) | 83% in 2024 | Highest since 1990 |
| Working capital | $608,000 per farm at year-end 2022 | $372,000 per farm at year-end 2024 | Declined $236,000, or 38%, over those two year-ends |
| Current ratio | 3.59 in 2022 | 2.47 in 2024 | 2014–2019 average: 2.13 |
| Debt-to-asset ratio | 0.174 in 2023 | 0.187 in 2024 | 0.209 in 2019 and 0.33 in 1991 |
Illinois figures and historical comparisons in this table are from the University of Illinois farmdoc Daily analysis. Dollar values are nominal as reported, without inflation adjustment.
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Why did profitability fall?
The commodity cycle turned after 2022
The farmdoc authors connect the 2022 peak to higher commodity prices following the COVID-19 pandemic, short supplies in South America, and the Russia–Ukraine war. They report that commodity prices fell after 2022. Average operating income, which had reached $252,000 per farm in 2012, averaged $54,000 during 2014–2019, then rose to $339,000 in 2022 before turning negative in 2024. Those are nominal amounts.
Operating income is broader than crop-sale revenue
The analysis defines operating income as gross farm returns minus operating expenses, depreciation, and interest expenses. Gross returns include cash sales, government payments, crop-insurance receipts, and net changes in inventories and receivables. The measure therefore reflects more than commodity prices or cash sales alone.
The authors say a year-end receivable for Economic Assistance Payments under the American Relief Act of 2024 increased 2024 gross returns. Their counterfactual estimate is that, without those payments, average operating income would have been $30,000 lower, or -$45,000 per farm. That is the authors’ estimate, not a separate observed result.
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What does the high expense ratio say about cost pressure?
Operating expenses were 83% of gross farm returns in 2024, the highest ratio since 1990 in the Illinois series. The ratio is operating expenses divided by gross returns: a higher share means less of those returns remains to cover depreciation, interest, and operating income. The authors note that both occasions above 80% in their data coincided with negative operating income.
The paper describes a ratio below 0.60 as a commonly used goal and says lower is preferable. That is a rule of thumb, not a universal threshold: costs and returns vary by operation, and the ratio does not by itself establish whether an individual farm is financially sound.
How much liquidity remained at the end of 2024?
Working capital measures the dollar cushion
Working capital is current assets minus current liabilities. For grain farms, current assets commonly include cash, prepaid expenses for the next crop year, and grain inventory. Current liabilities commonly include operating loans, current portions of longer-term debt, and accrued taxes. Because inventory and prepaid expenses are not as immediately spendable as cash, the working-capital figure is a cushion, not a cash balance.
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Average working capital fell from $608,000 per farm at year-end 2022 to $372,000 at year-end 2024, a $236,000 or 38% decline. The comparison describes the two reported year-ends, not a monthly path between them.
The current ratio compares current assets and liabilities
The current ratio is current assets divided by current liabilities. It fell from 3.59 in 2022 to 2.47 in 2024, but remained above the 2014–2019 average of 2.13. The farmdoc paper says a ratio above 2.0 is generally considered sufficient liquidity; that benchmark does not guarantee that a particular farm can meet its obligations, especially when asset composition and payment timing differ.
Did solvency deteriorate—and is this another 1980s crisis?
The debt-to-asset ratio indicates what share of asset value is financed by debt. It rose from 0.174 in 2023 to 0.187 in 2024. The authors describe that as the largest annual increase in the series since 1991, while noting that the 2024 ratio remained below 0.209 in 2019 and 0.33 in 1991. They characterize values below 0.2 as generally very strong.
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The authors caution against treating today’s squeeze as a replay of the 1980s. They describe that period as involving higher debt ratios, sharp interest-rate increases in the early 1980s, negative cash flows, and steep farmland-price declines. Given current solvency and monitoring, they judge widespread Midwest bankruptcies like those of the 1980s less likely in the short to medium term. That is an assessment, not a guarantee: they warn that persistently low profitability would erode liquidity and solvency.
Farm-level averages also conceal variation. The authors say operations with weaker-than-average liquidity and solvency may face difficulty, particularly younger operators and farms with more cash-rented land. This is their observation, not a quantified prediction for every farm in those groups.
Independent reader supportYour contribution helps us test, update, and keep practical guides available for everyone.What do USDA’s 2026 figures add—and what do they not tell grain farmers?
USDA Economic Research Service (ERS) forecasts the financial position of the entire U.S. farm sector, not Illinois grain farms or the average individual farm. Its September 2026 forecast puts 2026 sector assets at $4.47 trillion, debt at $605.1 billion, and equity at $3.86 trillion. ERS expects nominal assets to rise 3.0% and debt 4.6% from 2025; nominal equity is forecast to rise 2.7%. In inflation-adjusted terms, assets and equity are expected to remain relatively stable while debt rises 1.5%. Farmland and attachments account for 83% of projected sector assets.
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The sector debt-to-asset ratio is forecast to increase from 13.34% in 2025 to 13.54% in 2026, as debt grows faster than assets or equity. Sector working capital is forecast to rise 3.5% nominally in 2026 after falling 15.0% in 2025, while debt-service indicators point to worsening liquidity. These measures tell a mixed story rather than showing uniform improvement.
ERS aggregates sector balance sheets, so its ratios are not averages of ratios calculated farm by farm. Its balance sheet uses market values, unlike a historical-cost accounting view, and excludes deferred tax liabilities that could arise from asset sales; that omission can make solvency appear stronger. ERS distinguishes balance-sheet position at a point in time from income-statement performance over a period. Its balance-sheet documentation describes the balance sheet as estimating the value of physical and financial assets in U.S. agriculture over time.
The ERS data catalog says its latest statistics include historical U.S. and state estimates plus current-year U.S. forecasts. Data were current as of September 3, 2026, unless otherwise noted; the next forecast was scheduled for December 2, 2026. The national forecast offers context, but it does not fill the absence of a newer Illinois grain-farm series than 2024.
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